Weekend Estimates | TF4 - 100M (Paramount sticking to 100M for the Wknd Est)| More Numbers on Page 1

[Heat Vision]

Paramount trying to be slick by putting 100 million

[keysersoze123]

Deadline is going to be wrong.  According to RTH it did about 98-99 mill.  I'll go with him.

 

rth just updated sunday. you are assuming fri/sat did not go down?

[keysersoze123]

If it's 97.5, thean yeah, shamelss lies for headlines

 

IM1 was also overestimated and went below 100M with actuals. Compared to say 22JS this is still much better. Even your favorite Malificent was overestimated.

[BadAtGender]

This has been the summer of the quick kill blockbuster. 9 weekends into the summer, and no movie has repeated at #1. Every weekend has had a different #1 movie

 

TASM2

Neighbors

Godzilla

DOFP

Maleficent

TFIOS

22JS

TLAM2

TF4

 

Tammy could do it next week, I think. It wouldn't even need to breakout as big as Neighbors or 22JS. $40m might be able to do it. The Wednesday opening could throw things, though.

[K1stpierre]

Deadline is going to be wrong.  According to RTH it did about 98-99 mill.  I'll go with him.

 

If it's 97.5, thean yeah, shamelss lies for headlines

Knew it.   Never question RTH.

[BobbyJohn]

IM1 was also overestimated and went below 100M with actuals. Compared to say 22JS this is still much better. Even your favorite Malificent was overestimated.

By half a million. Rather different than fudging 3 million (if true) for 100m headlines

[baumer]

rth just updated sunday. you are assuming fri/sat did not go down?

 

Yes, of course.  

[K1stpierre]

Earth to Echo. Right? 

Naw, it'll be TMNT.

[Jandrew]

If it's 97.5, thean yeah, shamelss lies for headlines

Hmmm...i think we all knew thats what they were doing.

[Ethan Hunt]

Naw, it'll be TMNT.

I don't know it could be a close race. 

[BadAtGender]

For all the talk of fudging, does anyone know what the biggest difference between estimates and actuals are for an opener? I remember AotC was estimated at $115m for the 4 day opening so Fox could claim it was bigger than Spider-Man, but the actuals were around $110m.

 

Anything bigger than that $5m gap?

[baumer]

For all the talk of fudging, does anyone know what the biggest difference between estimates and actuals are for an opener? I remember AotC was estimated at $115m for the 4 day opening so Fox could claim it was bigger than Spider-Man, but the actuals were around $110m.

 

Anything bigger than that $5m gap?

 

Scream 2 came in at 6 mill less.

[BadAtGender]

Scream 2 came in at 6 mill less.

 

Oh, right. That's probably the biggest miss by percentage ever.

 

Although in that case it was probably more the studio (Miramax?) being bad at estimates, not because they were trying to milk a headline. It was the biggest December opening of all time either way, right? By a pretty considerable margin. (And that record would last until... Fellowship?)

Edited June 30, 2014 by DamienRoc

[Lordmandeep]

biggest jump in actuals was Passion of the Christ and of course Avengers

[Incarnadine]

I don't think there is 1 person on this board who didn't think it would actually come in under 100m, the 100m was just so obviously for headlines. I posted I figured actuals would be around 97 so 97.5 is close enough for me.

[baumer]

For the record, I asked Marrio Kassar (producer of films like Rambo, T2 and many others) about studios fudging the numbers for headlines.  He told me that it happens ALL THE TIME and that rival studios just basically accept it. 

 

This was a conversation I had with him on Facebook.  I'll see if I still have it.

[Ethan Hunt]

biggest jump in actuals was Passion of the Christ and of course Avengers

Wow, I was just to ask about this. 

[baumer]

Oh, right. That's probably the biggest miss by percentage ever.

 

Although in that case it was probably more the studio (Miramax?) being bad at estimates, not because they were trying to milk a headline. It was the biggest December opening of all time either way, right? By a pretty considerable margin. (And that record would last until... Fellowship?)

 

Yea, amazing that 17 years ago, Scream 2 "SMASHED RECORDS" when it opened to 32 mill.

[baumer]

This is from Kassar in 2009:

 

 

All studios round up a bit their weekend box office...not too creative but it has been done like this for years. they are not really too far off of the announced number.....probably as close as possible to the reality. in any case only they really know...unless u r close to theatre owners or u are another studio where they can track it thru rentrack... u should not worry too much about it when a film hits 200 or 201 million in those few days,it is quite an accomplishement take care MK

[BK007]

We make a big deal out of fudging but the studios don't care. After all, if they all are guilty, it's counter productive to fight each other.