Weekend Numbers: GOTG - 94M (PG 180) [25.5M Sunday (Spatula) Cancel the Godzilla legs!]

[eXtacy]

That's not the point.  Look at the drops on the same day last year:

 

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2013-08-04&track=despicableme2.htm

 

 

Look at 2012 though

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-08-05&p=.htm

[baumer]

Look at 2012 though

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-08-05&p=.htm

 

Hmm, good point...maybe it skips a year.  

[miketheavenger]

So the 18% drop was happening after all. Nice! But what about Saturday? Is that still 31M or higher as well?

[baumer]

So the 18% drop was happening after all. Nice! But what about Saturday? Is that still 31M or higher as well?

 

31 mill.

[The Panda]

Wow so Spatula was wrong and it increased from the Sunday estimate. Big relief

[Wrath]

I think $430m O/S would be considered more than "tolerable" and right now it's opening under TDW by 30-60% in every major territory except RUS (where TDW opened on half screens then expanded the 2nd w/e) which did $438m O/S.  It will probably have better legs but it could have good legs and still wind up at $350m O/S which would still be great.

 

Hmm, we'll see.  Where is it opening 60% below TDW?  South Korea?  That's hardly a fair comparison because of the fluky competition.  Also, while its opening modestly below TDW OS, its also generally opening in the ballpark of CATWS which outperformed TDW OS.  So, we'll see about the legs.  Plus, it will all come down to China in the end anyway which doesn't even have a "real" date yet.

[TalismanRing]

Hmm, we'll see.  Where is it opening 60% below TDW?  South Korea?  That's hardly a fair comparison because of the fluky competition.  Also, while its opening modestly below TDW OS, its also generally opening in the ballpark of CATWS which outperformed TDW OS.  So, we'll see about the legs.  Plus, it will all come down to China in the end anyway which doesn't even have a "real" date yet.

 

The only big comparable market for GOTG and TWS so far is the UK where GOTG has  .8m lead after estimates.  In RUS it's far ahead (13m v 7.7m) but it's farther behind TWS than TDW in all the other big market openings -  SK, Brazil, Mexico.

 

I thought the date for GOTG had been set for SEpt, one week after Apes 2?

Edited August 4, 2014 by TalismanRing

[miketheavenger]

31 mill.

Thanks. So the opening will still be slightly under Cap 2 then.

Edited August 4, 2014 by miketheavenger

[Mojoguy]

Dammit Spatula! Why did you have to come back and admit you were wrong? Now I won't be able to make certain jokes when actuals came out.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Mojoguy

[Wrath]

Yeah, that's why I put it in quotes.  The date is set, but the Chinese film board still hasn't formally given its approval to be shown at all. Its probably just a formality at this point, but you never know.

 

Also, its worth remembering that OS, especially China, has grown enormously over even just the last few years.  At one point I broken down all the super-hero comic book adapations in terms of how they'd done domestically vs how they'd done OS and then grouped them by year.  

 

From 2002-2010, the average OS BO was something like 1.05x DOM, with the range being 0.84 to 1.65. 

 

From 2011-2014, the average OS BO was something like 1.63x DOM, with the range being 1.1 to 2.2.

 

So, the *best* performer from 2002-2010 barely beat the average from the later time group, and the *worst* performer from the later time group was ahead of the average from the earlier one.

 

It gets even more stark if you move 2011 to the "earlier" year category.  If you look at 2012-2014, the adaptation with the *lowest* OS BO was MoS at $377M.  Look at these OS BO #s:

 

MOS 377

TDW 437

CATWS 454

ASM 496

ASM2 505

DoFP 508

DKR 636

IM3 806

TA 895

 

If GotG is the second-lowest OS BO comic book movie of the last 3 years it can hit $430M OS.

[Mango]

Color me pleasantly surprised. As soon as I saw that 18.7% drop I was like "damn it Disney, way to overpredict" yet it actually came out OVER that number.August is going to be the best month of the summer as far as movies doing well. Pretty sure TMNT will do well next weekend and hopefully Guardians can manage a drop under 55%. Fingers crossed for some miraculous IM1 hold but I think the big Thursday previews will prevent that.

[Blackout]

400m OS looks like a good figure for Guardians.

[TalismanRing]

Yeah, that's why I put it in quotes.  The date is set, but the Chinese film board still hasn't formally given its approval to be shown at all. Its probably just a formality at this point, but you never know.

 

Also, its worth remembering that OS, especially China, has grown enormously over even just the last few years.  At one point I broken down all the super-hero comic book adapations in terms of how they'd done domestically vs how they'd done OS and then grouped them by year.  

 

From 2002-2010, the average OS BO was something like 1.05x DOM, with the range being 0.84 to 1.65. 

 

From 2011-2014, the average OS BO was something like 1.63x DOM, with the range being 1.1 to 2.2.

 

So, the *best* performer from 2002-2010 barely beat the average from the later time group, and the *worst* performer from the later time group was ahead of the average from the earlier one.

 

It gets even more stark if you move 2011 to the "earlier" year category.  If you look at 2012-2014, the adaptation with the *lowest* OS BO was MoS at $377M.  Look at these OS BO #s:

 

MOS 377

TDW 437

CATWS 454

ASM 496

ASM2 505

DoFP 508

DKR 636

IM3 806

TA 895

 

If GotG is the second-lowest OS BO comic book movie of the last 3 years it can hit $430M OS.

 

 

 

One major difference is though it is part of the Marvel which has tremendous cachet brand it's still a new series.  All the others listed are sequels, continuations or reboots and cutting off 2011 from the pack where 4 SH films came out - and 3 of them were original series and they all did lower than MOS O/S is skewing data.  Then there are movies like Wolverine from 2013 which I gather you didn't add since it did under $150m U.S. but which made more O/S than Thor with $282m.

 

Anyway, it could go crazy in Japan and make Maleficient numbers and then it shoot past $400m O/s.

Edited August 4, 2014 by TalismanRing

[a2k]

Someone should update that thread title or I'll have egg on my face for the rest of the day.  

 

[Wrath]

One major difference is though it is part of the Marvel which has tremendous cachet brand it's still a new series.  All the others listed are sequels, continuations or reboots and cutting off 2011 from the pack where 4 SH films came out and they all did lower than MOS O/S seems a bit like cherry picking data.  Then there are movies like Wolverine from 2013 which I gather you didn't add since it did under $150m U.S. but which made more O/S than Thor with $282m.

 

Anyway, it could go crazy in Japan and make Maleficient numbers and then it shoot past $400m O/s.

 

Very true about the more recent movies all being sequels or continuations.  I went back and compared sequels against their predecessors, and while it did look like sequels arguably tended to outperform their originals OS, to me it felt like the simple march of time was actually the bigger factor.  I suspect they're both factors, but that time is the bigger one.

 

CAFA - 1.1

CA:TWS - 1.75

IM - 0.84

IM2 - 1.00

IM3 - 1.97

SM - 1.03

SM2 - 1.10

SM3 - 1.65

ASM - 1.89

Thor - 1.48

TDW - 2.13

DK - 0.88

DKR - 1.42

 

Wasn't Wolverine 2009?  It was certainly high enough grossing to make the cut.

 

While I was indeed cherry picking to exclude 2011, the year-over-year trend of declines is pretty clear:

 

2011

Thor - 268M

X-First Class - 207M

CATFA - 194M

 

2010

IM2 - 311M which looks high, but its a complicated comparison.  Remember that its DOM BO was *vastly* higher than the 3 2011 movies $312M vs $181M for Thor vs $176M for CATFA and $146M for X-FC which I actually excluded from the earlier math because it fell just short in DOM BO).  In terms of OS as a % of DOM, IM2 did significantly worse than those 3, even CATFA which was the worst from 2011-2014.

 

2009

The Wolverine - $193M (vs $190M DOM with legs even worse than Godzilla's)

 

Looking at the numbers, 2011 feels like a good intermediate step between what happened in 2009-2010 and what happened in 2012-2014 without really being part of either group and the overall upward trend is astonishingly steep.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Wrath

[Sam]

Dat title. Poor Godzilla.

[Wrath]

Just for completeness, the 2008 movies all did significantly less OS than domestically:

 

2008

 

IM 318M DOM/267M OS

DK 535M DOM/470M OS

IH 135M DOM/129M OS

 

Think about it this way: If an adaptation film of the quality of the first IM came out today, what are the odds of it doing less OS than the original Thor?  I'm guessing the odds are only slightly above 0%.  The world has really changed.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Wrath

[TalismanRing]

The first Wolverine was 2009, the 2nd was 2013.  O/S the second made $282m while the domestic went down to $132 mainly because the first Wolverine was awful but Hugh Jackman just became internationally more popular especially after Les Miz.

 

IM3, TWS, TDW - The Avengers bump overseas was real as were gains from being sequels as as well as the increasing Marvel brand.

 

SM 1 &2 were truly pre O/S break out numbers but in comparison to tickets sold they sold more than ASM1 & 2.  ASM 1 & ASM2 O/S % increased more because the domestic #s were drastically  decreasing rather than the O/S numbers were increasing.

 

The Nolan trilogy increased O/S with each movie as the bran became popular again and TDKR benefited O/S from TDK's great reception even though TDK rather underperformed O/S as compared to domestic.

[Wrath]

Oh, yeah.  I totally forgot about the 2013 version of Wolverine which is too bad because it wasn't horrible.

 

While I certainly acknowledge what you're saying, remember that years were ticking between the releases of the sequels as well. And looking at the GotG overseas numbers, even though its a non-sequel we're arguing over whether it will outperform *TDW and CATWS*, because we both know that its going to blow Thor and CATFA away OS.

 

Edit - Also, the 2009 Wolverine did OS of 1.1x Domestic, while the 2013 one did 2.1x.  The X-men franchise had been running for almost a decade when the 2009 one came out so its hard to imagine the 2013 version got much of a sequel bump.  What changed between 2009 and 2013?

Edited August 4, 2014 by Wrath

[TalismanRing]

Oh, yeah.  I totally forgot about the 2013 version of Wolverine which is too bad because it wasn't horrible.

 

While I certainly acknowledge what you're saying, remember that years were ticking between the releases of the sequels as well. And looking at the GotG overseas numbers, even though its a non-sequel we're arguing over whether it will outperform *TDW and CATWS*, because we both know that its going to blow Thor and CATFA away OS.

 

Edit - Also, the 2009 Wolverine did OS of 1.1x Domestic, while the 2013 one did 2.1x.  The X-men franchise had been running for almost a decade when the 2009 one came out so its hard to imagine the 2013 version got much of a sequel bump.  What changed between 2009 and 2013?

 

Mainly - Russia +$15m and China +$40m and I think Les Miz in 2012 with Hugh Jackman gaining a broader fan base that stretched outside of X-Men which seemed to counteract some of the bad WOM of the first Wolverine.  But that increase and a better movie along with X-Men FC, along with the increase in star power of JLaw etc  did I believe feed into DOFP's huge rise more than just expanding markets for all SH movies.

Edited August 4, 2014 by TalismanRing