Weekend Estimates: GotG 17.6m | TMNT 16.8m | If I Stay 16.4m | WGST 9.0m | Sin City 6.5m

[CJohn]

Hidden Post 1

Not the right place for this. Please post it elsewhere. 

Edited August 23, 2014 by CJohn

[druv10]

So Guardians should be the only summer 2014 film to hit $300 million, as well as the first 2014 films to sell over 30 million (estimated of course) tickets. Right now CA2 and Lego are pretty close but based on what we know of their 3D shares I have them coming just under it.

If it makes 304.54M, it beats IM1's 3.22 multiplier for biggest MCU movie. 

[ilikemunster]

I'm starting to regret my Sin City 2 over Avatar prediction. Hopefully, it still has a shot at beating The Avengers.

[druv10]

Having a hard time seeing Guardians miss 300 million at this point with Labor Day coming up. Drop should be very small next week if not a slight increase.

 

At this point, I don't see it missing 300M either.

 

17.5M 4th weekend 

7M+ weekdays

16.5/20M 3/4 day 5th weekend

 

Around 279M after Labor Day weekend, with very little competition for September, it wouldn't shock me if it got close or even beat IM1's 318M. 

[CJohn]

Hidden Post 2

... not the right place for this either.

Edited August 23, 2014 by CJohn

[Ruthie]

Probably not. Which is hilarious, considering how inflation and 3D premiums should've helped SC2, and it still won't make back SC's OW in it's entire run.

Why was SC2 even put in 3D?  It doesn't seem like the kind of film that anyone would want to see in that format, let alone if someone wanted to see it and the only show available was in 3D.  Among that, the budget and the timing, I'm completely baffled by the decisions made for this movie.  It's performance is sad, but, it's almost as if TPTB were asking for it.

[The Panda]

It's not likely. 160-170M looks optimistic

No, with Labor Day id say 170m is the floor for Turtles. Both it and Guardians will have sub 10% drops for the weekend next week and that will really give them pushes for the 200m and 300m milestones.

[Johnny Wiseau]

Will Sin City2 even reach $25M domestic ?

it'll open to 7..let's say 3 multiplier at most..leave us with about 21 mil

 

imo 25 is out of reach

[The Panda]

We now live in a world where Guardians of the Galaxy is a bigger draw than Spider-Man, X-Men, and Superman

[grey ghost]

BOM put up new "vs" with Guardians against, Spider-Man, Iron Man, and Man of Steel. Interesting chart.  Guardians has been running even with or better than Iron Man since the first Monday.  Spidey is no contest of course. Still pretty far behind MoS, but Mos had bad drops and stalled out eventually.

 

My only question is why did they put Spider-man in there?

 

Everyone knows GotG isn't getting close to 400 m.

[miketheavenger]

We now live in a world where Guardians of the Galaxy is a bigger draw than Spider-Man, X-Men, and Superman

They only had one movie. We shouldn't compare GOTG to franchises that have been around for 15+ years.

[Hilderic]

Looks like 100 Foot Journey could quietly end up topping $50m. 

 

A Dame To Kill For

[The Panda]

They only had one movie. We shouldn't compare GOTG to franchises that have been around for 15+ years.

It'll beat all of the X-Men films though, all of the amazing Spidey films, and possibly all the superman movies except the first adjusted (it might lose to 2 depending on legs, but it'll end up beating MoS for sure)And Spidey, Supes, and X-men had the luxury of being some of the first of their brand when guardians is in the middle of a flood of comic book movies.

[Heat Vision]

We now live in a world where Guardians of the Galaxy is a bigger draw than Spider-Man, X-Men, and Superman

Is doing good domestically but worldwide has been meh. When I see that 700 million I would put it in that same category.

[terrestrial]

Is doing good domestically but worldwide has been meh. When I see that 700 million I would put it in that same category.

 

It did very good in some countries, in some middle ground, not good especially in South Korea (but that counts for all movies released there around that date bcs of a local record breaking bio-pic).

In some smaller countries running better than all MCUs beside Avengers & Iron Man 3 (and even Avengers was surpassed in at least one smaller country)

 

It is still not even released in some major countries and as a first installment without any supporting big fan-groups out of books or comics or.... never was expected to end as big as it seem to end worldwide

 

The actual to see international detail at BOM is

1. out of date and

2. according to some sources even a bit short for then.

 

Last I read a few days back it was at $215m, in some countries still running good and Germany, Austria, Greece, Japan, China ($50m to $70m estimated by the China experts at International), a couple of smaller areas and at 22 October finally Italy still waiting for the release.

=> it will surpass all MCU 1st installment incl. Iron Man and also looks like to surpass Iron Man 2 in the international results category.

 

If it will be able to reach Thor 2 or CA 2 international results...

[The Panda]

Is doing good domestically but worldwide has been meh. When I see that 700 million I would put it in that same category.

It has a very staggered WW release, not very comparable ATM. I think guardians 2 will be a better gauge when they aren't releasing the movie in China in September.

[terrestrial]

It has a very staggered WW release, not very comparable ATM. I think guardians 2 will be a better gauge when they aren't releasing the movie in China in September.

 

China's censor people.... => release date 10 October

[Johnny Wiseau]

China's censor people.... => release date 10 October

the Chinese seem like such nice people..I hope one day they can break free from the "censor people"

[wileECoyote]

If it makes 304.54M, it beats IM1's 3.22 multiplier for biggest MCU movie.

3.22 is about the same multiplier as RotPotA which I've been using as a comp to GotG. It's been falling behind until recently. And should be making up ground since Hurricane Irene hit the same time of year in 2011.

[a2k]

Who wodda thunk?

Lucy > Hercules + Expendables 3 + Sin City 2

 

EDIT: Actually will be close. But Lucy will get within 5-10m of those 3 combined.

Edited August 23, 2014 by a2k