Plain Old Tele Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Like Red mentioned, if IS follows Thor 2s dailies from here on out, it ends with around 160M. But Thor 2 lost IMAX this weekend, so a slightly better hold and run may be in store, a finish between 168-175M may be possible depending on this weekend. 60% of GRAVITY is $164.46m. INTERSTELLAR is 22m ahead, but I think GRAVITY(60%) will start edging ahead in weekdays (minimally). GRAVITY also had pretty good late legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Like Red mentioned, if IS follows Thor 2s dailies from here on out, it ends with around 160M. But Thor 2 lost IMAX this weekend, so a slightly better hold and run may be in store, a finish between 168-175M may be possible depending on this weekend. Also possible it dodges a bullet with HG3 compared to HG2. Thor caught the full brunt of a critically acclaimed Hunger Games sequel coming off a very popular first movie. HG3 will still be huge, but there is possibly a bit of burnout effect since this is the third movie in just 2.5 years. Even a dip of $10-15m in the opening could help Interstellar compared to Thor 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Also possible it dodges a bullet with HG3 compared to HG2. Thor caught the full brunt of a critically acclaimed Hunger Games sequel coming off a very popular first movie. HG3 will still be huge, but there is possibly a bit of burnout effect since this is the third movie in just 2.5 years. Even a dip of $10-15m in the opening could help Interstellar compared to Thor 2. I don't think there's a lot of cross-over in terms of audience, it's more a question of MJ1 stealing screens (even on a temporary basis). IS's Thursday might take a little damage as well... some theaters are maxing out their screens for MJ1 tonight, and all the holdovers should take a (small) hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 It got so cold in SoCal yesterday that I couldn't go out in a T-shirt and shorts anymore. Light jacket and jeans weather is finally here. Stockholm, where I live, has literally only had 2 hours of sun in November... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 (edited) I don't think there's a lot of cross-over in terms of audience, it's more a question of MJ1 stealing screens (even on a temporary basis). IS's Thursday might take a little damage as well... some theaters are maxing out their screens for MJ1 tonight, and all the holdovers should take a (small) hit. You mean tomorrow night right? One of my local theaters Edwards Ontario Palace added a bunch of shows for tomorrow night. They have at least 10 shows now. Edited November 19, 2014 by ECSTASY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I don't think there's a lot of cross-over in terms of audience, it's more a question of MJ1 stealing screens (even on a temporary basis). IS's Thursday might take a little damage as well... some theaters are maxing out their screens for MJ1 tonight, and all the holdovers should take a (small) hit. It will definitely drop a decent amount on Thursday. Last year shows us what to expect: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2013-11-21&p=.htm You're definitely right about the screen count, although I was surprised to see my local theater is still going to have Interstellar on 2 regular screens in addition to the IMAX screen. Hunger Games will be on 3 regular screens and the RPX screen. Surprised they didn't tilt it more in THG's favor on the regular screens. I will be curious to see the theater count too. Thor was still in over 3700 theaters on its third weekend. Interstellar is well under that number even right now, so a big loss of theaters could hurt its chances of matching Thor's $14.2m weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Tuesday, November 18, 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 312002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 >Yr >Mo > Wk >>Next Day TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Interstellar Par. $2,636,589 +23% -62% 3,561 $740 $101,715,375 14 2 2 Dumb and Dumber To Uni. $2,398,565 +16% - 3,154 $760 $40,577,765 5 3 3 Big Hero 6 BV $1,692,150 +29% -84% 3,773 $448 $113,309,621 12 4 5 Gone Girl Fox $423,712 +24% -55% 1,959 $216 $153,400,787 47 5 6 Fury (2014) Sony $417,941 +25% -60% 2,382 $175 $76,646,130 33 6 4 Beyond the Lights Rela. $410,535 +20% - 1,789 $229 $6,953,001 5 7 7 St. Vincent Wein. $407,309 +45% -52% 2,332 $175 $33,689,824 40 8 8 Nightcrawler ORF $353,373 +33% -60% 2,103 $168 $25,498,565 19 9 9 Birdman FoxS $281,696 +24% -18% 857 $329 $12,106,254 33 10 10 John Wick LG/S $265,519 +29% -63% 1,758 $151 $39,387,826 26 11 11 Ouija Uni. $177,490 +24% -75% 2,382 $75 $48,366,730 26 12 12 The Judge WB $134,147 +48% -51% 803 $167 $44,603,117 40 - - Rosewater ORF $97,301 +22% - 371 $262 $1,331,359 5 - - Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day BV $83,589 +19% -91% 1,633 $51 $62,546,130 40 - - The Theory of Everything Focus $69,740 +14% +140% 41 $1,701 $1,161,710 12 - - The Best of Me Rela. $63,981 +39% -69% 722 $89 $25,850,276 33 - - The Book of Life (2014) Fox $50,156 +5% -93% 1,006 $50 $47,450,582 33 - - The Equalizer Sony $42,319 +12% -73% 375 $113 $98,957,917 54 - - The Maze Runner Fox $39,534 +15% -81% 524 $75 $100,136,387 61 - - Dracula Untold Uni. $32,390 +12% -82% 383 $85 $55,786,775 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Come on, Gone Girl, let's get to $170m! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 You mean tomorrow night right? One of my local theaters Edwards Ontario Palace added a bunch of shows for tomorrow night. They have at least 10 shows now. Sorry, yes, Thursday. And there are definitely a few theaters in the SoCal area going all in for Thursday sneaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 60% of GRAVITY is $164.46m. INTERSTELLAR is 22m ahead, but I think GRAVITY(60%) will start edging ahead in weekdays (minimally). GRAVITY also had pretty good late legs. Given the type of story it is, and the debates (see rtm sub-forum), I can see some cute late legs for Interstellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 local showtime counts Wednesday Intersteller - 27 Big Hero 6 - 36 DADT - 24 Thursday Mockingjay - 24 Interstellar - 27 BH6 - 34 DADT - 20 Friday Mockingjay - 42 Interstellar - 16 BH6 - 28 DADT - 23 Obviously not a large set of data points to draw from here, just one city. But it looks like Interstellar is losing a fair amount of showtimes on Friday. (6 of those showtimes are due to Interstellar losing the two large format screen here in town.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 BH6 looking at a 47% drop from week 1 to week 2. Even with Veterans Day taken out of the equation that's still on the rougher side of things (~39%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 local showtime counts Wednesday Intersteller - 27 Big Hero 6 - 36 DADT - 24 Thursday Mockingjay - 24 Interstellar - 27 BH6 - 34 DADT - 20 Friday Mockingjay - 42 Interstellar - 16 BH6 - 28 DADT - 23 Obviously not a large set of data points to draw from here, just one city. But it looks like Interstellar is losing a fair amount of showtimes on Friday. (6 of those showtimes are due to Interstellar losing the two large format screen here in town.) That's a brutal showtime drop. Long runtime hurting it for sure on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Given the type of story it is, and the debates (see rtm sub-forum), I can see some cute late legs for Interstellar. But although it has IMAX for a nice little run, it does lose that advantage for late legs (and that means it loses IMAX through the Christmas holidays, which are its last chance at getting a bonus boost). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 BH6 looking at a 47% drop from week 1 to week 2. Even with Veterans Day taken out of the equation that's still on the rougher side of things (~39%). BH6 will end up with a nice total, but for some reason it just hasn't got into the popculture conversation. Even after it won against Interstellar, most of the articles on Monday following OW (and frankly from that point forward till now) were dissections of Interstellar and explaining the physics etc. Then DADT overperformed denying it a "Second weekend at #1" headline, and now Mockingjay part 1 has taken hold of the media coverage. BH6 needed a little more media exposure to promote to audiences who haven't seen it yet similar to what Frozen got last year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 BH6 looking at a 47% drop from week 1 to week 2. Even with Veterans Day taken out of the equation that's still on the rougher side of things (~39%). 2nd Tues: WIR: $1,454,849 leading into a $18,582,937 w/e Mad2: $1,190,359 leading into a $15,661,936 w/e BH6: $1,692,150 16.5% ahead of WIR and 42% ahead of Mad 2 If it maintains that % and behaves like WIR then $21.65m, if like Mad 2 then a $22.24m - about a 36-38% w/e drop Of course MJ1 will have something to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Sometimes a little perspective helps, so here's a reminder of what people were predicting for Interstellar. (At least the people playing the winter game.) Current Domestic Top 15 Standings As of November 16th, 2014:INTERSTELLAR (23/23)Darkelf - $449M The Panda - $425M Empire - $382M Jajang - $369M Mahnamahna - $369M Alpha - $315M DAJK - $312M Spaghetti - $308M Wrath - $305M bcf26 - $305M Chasmmi - $301M Filmovie - $296M Cmasterclay - $285M Blankments - $284M grim22 - $280M Geraldino - $275M Avi - $267M Iceroll - $265M laguy03 - $265M Punishment - $250M Telemachos - $240M grey ghost - $205M Snoopy of Suburbia - $170MCURRENT TOTAL - $96.93MBIG HERO 6 (23/23)avi - $275M The Panda - $275M Empire - $252M Spaghetti - $252M Darkelf - $251M Alpha - $250M Snoopy of Suburbia - $250M Geraldino - $247M Blankments - $247M bcf26 - $240M Mahnamahna - $232M DAJK - $231M Jajang - $230M iceroll - $229M Chasmmi - $224M Telemachos - $224M laguy03 - $216M Wrath - $190M grim22 - $185M Cmasterclay - $180M Filmovie - $178M grey ghost - $172MCURRENT TOTAL - $110.31MPunishment - $110M 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 My insanely high predicts for both. I had high hopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 My insanely high predicts for both. I had high hopes You jinxed both movies with your high predicts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 So where are the Wednesday numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
