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2015 Best Picture predictions!

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Diary of a Teenage Girl might get in as the Sundance nod

I'm not sure if it will hold itself up long enough to make it in the race, it should have been pushed at TIFF and in the fall a la Whiplash. The fact that it pretty much tanked in wide release certainly won't help.

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This seems like it will be a really weak year quality wise. (it definitely has been so far)

 

 

Too early to know!! We still have to see the big horses. Spielberg, Zemeckis, Tarantino, David O'Russell, Iñárritu, Danny Boyle, Ron Howard, Guillermo del Toro... 

 

Some films already seen by critics are meant to be very good: Carol, Sicario and Youth, specially.

 

And we have already seen a couple of memorable gems: Inside Out and Ex Machina.

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Final pre-fest predictions

 

1. Suffragette 

2. Joy

3. Danish Girl

4. Carol

5. H8ful

6. Miles Ahead

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Revenant (Mild Disappointment)

9. Youth

Missing the cut

10. The Martian

11. Spotlight

12. Black Mass (have a feeling it's gonna be better than we think)

13. Inside Out

14. I Saw The Light

15. MEDIOCRE!

16. Freeheld/Son of Saul

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Only because of the slim pickings from Sundance and the Academy wanting to recognize at least one so they look hip. Bel Powley's performance is definitely overrated, though. I found out she was British only because her accent kept slipping through.

They are infinitely more likely to pick Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (the Grand Jury Prize winner this year, and even it went nowhere at the box office) out of the Sundance favorites this year instead. None of them are getting in though. Brooklyn is the festival favorite with the most likely chance of getting in based on studio and release date, and even it's no sure thing. More likely this is going to be a year without a Sundance breakout, both in box office and awards. It happens from time to time.

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They are infinitely more likely to pick Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (the Grand Jury Prize winner this year, and even it went nowhere at the box office) out of the Sundance favorites this year instead. None of them are getting in though. Brooklyn is the festival favorite with the most likely chance of getting in based on studio and release date, and even it's no sure thing. More likely this is going to be a year without a Sundance breakout, both in box office and awards. It happens from time to time.

Especially if they don't continue the festival trajectory, which only Brooklyn has.

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I'm surprised by the remaining confidence of some in Suffragette? It seems pretty obvious that Focus is putting all of their...focus...on The Danish Girl (evidenced by the fact they are taking the latter to all of the festivals and launching it with a prime Thanksgiving slot while the former is doing none of the major festivals and is opening on a random late October weekend), and they are definitely a studio that knows when they have a major player on their hands. We'll find out soon enough I guess.

Edited by filmlover
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Beasts of No Nation is going to be a fascinating case. Reviews are good enough for serious Best Picture consideration, and at bare minimum serious BSA consideration for Elba, but who knows how the Academy is gonna handle it with the Netflix release? Going to be interesting to see, and potentially seismic, actually. 

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suffragette sucks

suff.jpg

71% RT and only 5.7/10

thats not even going to get a nomination bar a technical category.

 

i think revenant will get best picture.

 

Curiously, all the female critics are giving strong reviews for the movie.

 

Too early to know if Revenant will get nommed, even more get the big prize 

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After the first impressions of some of the contenders, I would say that Carol, Brooklyn, Spotlight and Steve Jobs are clearly in the run for a nom.

 

Sufragette and Danish girl, I am not sure about their chances in BP. Divisive reactions. Both will surely have acting nods, though.

 

Sicario and Everest would need BO to not be completely forgotten in January.

 

Youth reactions are really solid.

 

Increasing hype: Beasts of no nation and Black Mass.

 

 

I would say that the top10 could be Carol, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Steve Jobs, Youth, Joy, Revenant, Danisk girl, Inside Out and In the heart of the sea.

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best picture noms will be

not in any order

 

1. the revenant

2. the hateful eight

3. carol

4. brooklyn

5. bridge of spies

6. beasts of no nation

7. Joy

8. steve jobs

9. the martian

 

additionals - in the heart of the sea, youth

 

thats about it.

Edited by Halba
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