Baumer's Summer Game - Darkelf #1, Grim22 #2, laguy03 #3..final words from baumer pg 95

[CJohn]

C John, seriously?

 

 

CJohn lmao

What? I forgot to play the first two weeks.

 

Anyway, Mad Max is already fucking with my top 15.

[JJ-8]

11) Mad Max: Fury Road - 129.8m

14) Pitch Perfect 2 - 81.4m

Woot. Got both in there and I am liking the mad max total. As for pp2 a little bit short.

[iceroll]

I'm so mad at myself for adjusting PP2 from 170m to 147m last minute :/

[Chewy]

I'm so mad at myself for adjusting PP2 from 170m to 147m last minute :/

 

As long as you've got it in your top 15 you're good, I've got a feeling most people undershot it

[Empire]

I'm so mad at myself for adjusting PP2 from 170m to 147m last minute :/

Better than me. I only have it at 120M.

[grim22]

If PP2 hits 70M, it will most likely find itself in the top 5 OW for the BSG. Don't think anyone has PP2 in their list.

[Ethan Hunt]

If PP2 hits 70M, it will most likely find itself in the top 5 OW for the BSG. Don't think anyone has PP2 in their list.

Maybe, I still think- JW, M:I5, Ted 2, and Minions will all out open it ( and obviously AoU already did)

[Kalo]

I'm so mad at myself for adjusting PP2 from 170m to 147m last minute :/

 

I only had it as $135m 

[Ethan Hunt]

I think I had Pitch Perfect 2 around 150M

[narniadis]

Yup no max and a serious underballing of PP2 means I am screwed.... as if Ultron hadn't caused enough problems.

[kayumanggi]

A bunch of losers. Wahahaha!

[Cedarpoint1111]

I have it at 92m so you can all just shut up. Gah!!

[Wrath]

As long as you've got it in your top 15 you're good, I've got a feeling most people undershot it

Every movie in my top 15 between #6 and #15 is in a $50m range, between 115-165m. I know I'm going to badly umdershoot a few but I dont know which. it ends up better to be too conservative than too aggressive.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Every movie in my top 15 between #6 and #15 is in a $50m range, between 115-165m. I know I'm going to badly umdershoot a few but I dont know which. it ends up better to be too conservative than too aggressive.

Having 15 movies do over 115m each is not conservative.

[Wrath]

Having 15 movies do over 115m each is not conservative.

 

Not really.  Each of the last two summers had 14 movies at 115m or over, and the year before had 12.

 

Edit - Also, only having 5 movies over 165m is almost foolishly conservative.  Last summer had *10*, the 2 summers before that both had 7.

Edited May 17, 2015 by Wrath

[Dementeleus]

FYI, for handy reference everyone's predictions are now listed in their own thread. Look up your own or others simply by searching for your username in your browser find.

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18725-all-preseason-lists-for-reference/

[grim22]

Based on the dailies so far, AoU is maintaining around a 8-10% lead on IM3, if that continues throughout, it will end with 445-455M domestic. Pitch Perfect 2 OTOH looks like a potential 170M+ grosser. So all in all, everyone is losing points.

 

If your prediction is in GOLD, then you are within $2 MILLION and get 25,000 points!
If your prediction is in PURPLE, then you are within $5 MILLION and get 20,000 points!
If your prediction is in BLUE then you are within $20 MILLION and get 10,000 points!
If your prediction is in GREEN then you are within $30 MILLION and get 5,000 points!
If your prediction is in BLACK then you are SAFE!
If your prediction is in RED then you are over the film's current total by at least $40 MILLION and lose 5,000 points!

Edited May 17, 2015 by grim22

[grim22]

Anyone know what the answer to this question is looking like?

 

I'll give you a number, you tell me if Avengers will gross more or less than that number in said markets.

1) Russia:  42M

2) Germany:  31.5M

3) Portugal:  3M

4) China:  200M

 

BOM has become pretty bad with updating OS grosses.

[chasmmi]

The current very early answers to the Weekly questions:

 

1) Will Pitch Perfect make at least 20 mill more than Mad Max? YES

2) Will Pitch Perfect make more than 49 mill OW? YES

3) Will PP have previews of more than 4 mill? YES

4) Will PP have an OD of more than 17.5 mill? YES

5) Will PP be number one this weekend? YES

6) Will Mad Max open to more than 30 mill? YES

7) Will MM have previews of more than 2 mill? YES

8) Will MM drop more than 25% on Sunday? HARD TO KNOW RIGHT NOW

9) Will Avengers drop more than 45%? YES

10) Will Avengers increase more than 58% on Saturday? TOO EARLY TO SAY

11) Will Age of Adeline fall more than 25%? YES (BO HAS AT 47%)

12) Will the top three films combine to make more than 115 mill? YES - POSSIBLE THAT THE TOP 2 MAY EVEN MANAGE IT)

 

Question 13:

 

This is an all or nothing question.  If you go for it, you must get all four questions right.  If you do not go for it, you get 0 points.  However, if you do not get perfect on this question, you will lose 20,000 points.  Getting it correct means you get 20,000 points.  All or nothing.  If you are not going to attempt this question, just say #13:  Abstain.

 

A) Will MM fall less than 10% on Saturday? ???

Will Avengers have a Saturday decrease of less than 51% from last Friday? NO - BO SAYS 53%

C) Will F7 increase more than 60% on Saturday? ???

D) Will Woman in Gold fall more than 12% on Thursday?  NO - 5.1%

 

Bonus 1:  What finishes is spots:

 

4 HOT PURSUIT

7

8

11

12

[4815162342]

Well at least I included Pitch Perfect 2 in my top 15....at #15.