Lordmandeep Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Here's proof that Disney is comfortable with that Avengers number... They took money off to give it to Cinderella. It would be the other way about if they were desperate to break their own record. I personally think their expectation for TA2 was a decline domestically and around the same WW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Surely someone else has noticed this Cinderella thing! There's too many pages for me to look through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Surely someone else has noticed this Cinderella thing! There's too many pages for me to look through. People noticed it, but honestly disney have done this enough times that I guess it wasn't thought of as interesting discussion topic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah the WW gross seems a bit slower then expected but I forgot China. Just for fun a movie should release in all markets at the same time. Jurassic World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goffe Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Surely someone else has noticed this Cinderella thing! There's too many pages for me to look through. It's the double feature that Disney usually does with their blockbusters. Perfectly acceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Surely someone else has noticed this Cinderella thing! There's too many pages for me to look through. John Carter and Prince of Persia have had this done before, not much to talk about honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Nice rebound from Ultron, we'll see what the real WoM is next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 (edited) From Deadline: So the 3D share actually went up over the weekend to 47%. 30% 3D, 10% IMAX, 7% Other Premium, 53% 2D. This yields 18.2M tickets sold this weekend. Spizzer, that seems low to me. Even assuming that figure is based on the earlier 187.7M weekend estimate, that works out to an average ticket price of $10.31, which seems pretty high. Comparing that to an average ticket price $8.29 for TDKR, based on your estimate of 19.4M tickets sold, that's a 24.4% increase in ticket price from TDKR to TA2. Could the average ticket price really have increased that much? Looking at BOM's adjuster, average ticket prices have increased 2% from 2012 to 2015 (although we don't really know the average ticket price for 2015 yet). TDKR has the record for IMAX on a considerably lower opening weekend, so its IMAX percentage should be significantly higher. So if there's a significant increase in average ticket price, it must come from 3D and PLF. But the 3D percentage for TA2 is just 30%, so assuming an average increase of say 35% for 3D ticket prices, that would represent about a 10.5% bump in average ticket price. And the 16.4% combined IMAX and PLF for TA2 would not be all that much higher than TDKR's IMAX percentage. So I don't think that you can anywhere near a 24.4% increase in average ticket price from TDKR to TA2. BOM's average ticket price for 2015 is $8.12, so average 2D price should be lower than that. It's hard to say how much lower, so I'll assume an average 2D price of $8, and I'll also assume an average of $11 for 3D and $15 for IMAX/PLF. Those estimated ticket prices give 20.2M tickets sold for TA2. Spizzer, could you give your calculations for TA2 and TDKR that led to your estimates? That would be very helpful. Edited May 5, 2015 by Deedlit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Spizzer, that seems low to me. Even assuming that figure is based on the earlier 187.7M weekend estimate, that works out to an average ticket price of $10.31, which seems pretty high. Comparing that to an average ticket price $8.29 for TDKR, based on your estimate of 19.5M tickets sold, that's a 24.4% increase in ticket price from TDKR to TA2. Could the average ticket price really have increased that much? Looking at BOM's adjuster, average ticket prices have increased 2% from 2012 to 2015 (although we don't really know the average ticket price for 2015 yet). TDKR has the record for IMAX on a considerably lower opening weekend, so its IMAX percentage should be significantly higher. So if there's a significant increase in average ticket price, it must come from 3D and PLF. But the 3D percentage for TA2 is just 30%, so assuming an average increase of say 35% for 3D ticket prices, that would represent about a 10.5% bump in average ticket price. And the 16.4% combined IMAX and PLF for TA2 would not be all that much higher than TDKR's IMAX percentage. So I don't think that you can anywhere near a 24.4% increase in average ticket price from TDKR to TA2. BOM's average ticket price for 2015 is $8.12, so average 2D price should be lower than that. It's hard to say how much lower, so I'll assume an average 2D price of $8, and I'll also assume an average of $11 for 3D and $15 for IMAX/PLF. Those estimated ticket prices give 20.2M tickets sold for TA2. Spizzer, could you give your calculations for TA2 and TDKR that led to your estimates? That would be very helpful. TDKR is 2D film. BOM's Average ticket price is joke. Its Full Gross/Number of tickets sold. So its overestimated for 2d and underestimated for 3d. especially for big blockbusters. Spizzer has already broken down based on % gross across different formats. if anything he is underestimating it as AOU was particularly heavy in big markets like NYC and LA where even 2d tickets cost a bomb and imax 3d ticket prices are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Surely someone else has noticed this Cinderella thing! There's too many pages for me to look through. It is literally every single Disney release. The new one gives a bump to the last one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 TDKR is 2D film. BOM's Average ticket price is joke. Its Full Gross/Number of tickets sold. So its overestimated for 2d and underestimated for 3d. especially for big blockbusters. Spizzer has already broken down based on % gross across different formats. if anything he is underestimating it as AOU was particularly heavy in big markets like NYC and LA where even 2d tickets cost a bomb and imax 3d ticket prices are crazy. What makes you think TDKR was not popular in LA and NYC?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 TDKR is 2D film. BOM's Average ticket price is joke. Its Full Gross/Number of tickets sold. So its overestimated for 2d and underestimated for 3d. especially for big blockbusters. Spizzer has already broken down based on % gross across different formats. if anything he is underestimating it as AOU was particularly heavy in big markets like NYC and LA where even 2d tickets cost a bomb and imax 3d ticket prices are crazy. I'm aware that TDKR is a 2D film, as you can see from my post. I also broke down AOU's gross based on the different formats, and got a much higher admission figure. Of course I don't have exact numbers for the average ticket prices of the various formats, so if anyone has them, or knows where I can find them, that would be very helpful. I would simply like to see Spizzer's calculations. I assume he has a spreadsheet or something with all the percentages and average ticket prices across different formats, that would be great to see. Good point about big markets, but did AOU play significantly higher in big markets relative to, say, TDKR? As a recall, AOU in LA took a huge hit on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pensivepenguin Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Any Monday numbers yet or I'll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Imo I always think the number calculation seems far more punitive to 3D films and extremely favourable to 2d films. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 It is literally every single Disney release. The new one gives a bump to the last one. Wouldn't be surprised to see this happen quite frequently this summer: Avengers 2/Tomorrowland Tomorrowland/Inside Out Inside Out/Ant-Man Three potential double features solely to pad the older release's DOM gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Disney Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised to see this happen quite frequently this summer: Avengers 2/Tomorrowland Tomorrowland/Inside Out Inside Out/Ant-Man Three potential double features solely to pad the older release's DOM gross You know what they say.......when in Rome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Spizzer, that seems low to me. Even assuming that figure is based on the earlier 187.7M weekend estimate, that works out to an average ticket price of $10.31, which seems pretty high. Comparing that to an average ticket price $8.29 for TDKR, based on your estimate of 19.4M tickets sold, that's a 24.4% increase in ticket price from TDKR to TA2. Could the average ticket price really have increased that much? TDKR had a 19M IMAX opening weekend, which represents 11.9% of its gross. The difference between that and a 47% 3D share that includes 30% standard 3D, 7% PLF, and 10% IMAX is pretty massive, enough to account in a 24.4% increase in price once inflation is accounted for (which alone can contribute 7.5-10%). Looking at BOM's adjuster, average ticket prices have increased 2% from 2012 to 2015 (although we don't really know the average ticket price for 2015 yet). TDKR has the record for IMAX on a considerably lower opening weekend, so its IMAX percentage should be significantly higher. So if there's a significant increase in average ticket price, it must come from 3D and PLF. But the 3D percentage for TA2 is just 30%, so assuming an average increase of say 35% for 3D ticket prices, that would represent about a 10.5% bump in average ticket price. And the 16.4% combined IMAX and PLF for TA2 would not be all that much higher than TDKR's IMAX percentage. So I don't think that you can anywhere near a 24.4% increase in average ticket price from TDKR to TA2. BOM's average ticket price for 2015 is $8.12, so average 2D price should be lower than that. It's hard to say how much lower, so I'll assume an average 2D price of $8, and I'll also assume an average of $11 for 3D and $15 for IMAX/PLF. Those estimated ticket prices give 20.2M tickets sold for TA2. As keyser pointed out, and as I have explained many times, BOM's average ticket prices are a bit misleading. They are only accounting for the inflation of the prices of tickets sold within a given year, NOT actual ticket price inflation. Example: In Year 20XX, there are 3 films. 2D tickets sell for 5 dollars, 3D tickets sell for 10. Film A sells 10 tickets, 6 in 2D and 4 in 3D, grossing 70 dollars. Film B sells 20 tickets, 10 in 2D, 10 in 3D, grossing 150 dollars. Film C sells 15 tickets, 13 in 2D and 7 in 3D, grossing 135 dollars. The average ticket price is $7.89, and BOM will use this to calculate the tickets sold, yielding an incorrect 8.9 tickets for Film A, 19 tickets for film B, and 17.1 tickets sold for Film C. Now imagine this problem when we have BOM's average price also factoring in discount Tuesdays, the other formats, weekday vs. weekend discounts, matinees, late run discounts, discount theaters, the variation of prices between urban/rural areas, etc. The "inflation" that is observed in BOM's yearly ticket pricing is therefore not what we're looking for when we are dealing with tentpole blockbusters like these. It IS correct in the sense that it represents the inflation that has effectively occurred in the tickets that were paid for, but for our purposes, actual ticket price inflation is more relevant. Essentially, for calculations like this, I ignore BOM's average yearly ticket price figures anytime in the post-Avatar/3D era (late 09 onwards), and use it as a guideline for the years prior. The ticket prices I use instead are ones that I dug up years ago from a Consumer Report and WSJ article that attempted to calculate the average price for each format, and then I apply inflation accordingly (this is a point we can debate, I've gone with 3%, as that was what I was once told in my early BO tracking days AND that is right around the figure I've observed in tracking actual ticket prices after controlling for factors like day of the week, time during the day, scale of release, discount vs. no discount, etc.). Spizzer, could you give your calculations for TA2 and TDKR that led to your estimates? That would be very helpful. Sure thing. AOU: Format Gross Gross % Tickets Ticket % 15 Price 2D $101,966,628 53.3% 11920530 64.2% $8.55 IMAX $- 0.0% 0 0.0% $15.81 Other $13,771,520 7.2% 823952 4.4% $16.71 3D $57,170,934 29.9% 4681289 25.2% $12.21 IMAX 3D $18,362,026 9.6% 1129026 6.1% $16.26 $191,271,109 100.0% 18,554,797 100.0% $10.31 TDKR: Format Gross Gross % Tickets Ticket % 12 Price 2D $141,875,243 88.2% 18124073 93.2% $7.83 IMAX $19,012,052 11.8% 1313758 6.8% $14.47 Other $- 0.0% 0 0.0% $15.30 3D $- 0.0% 0 0.0% $11.18 IMAX 3D $- 0.0% 0 0.0% $14.88 $160,887,295 100.0% 19,437,831 100.0% $8.28 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
