AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

[Goffe]

I dont understand how anybody can think this will not even make 450m. It got an 'A' cinemascore! Thats really really good and kind of ends all doubts about WOM. I had thought this will get B at the most. This is going to play like MJ1 - lower than expected OW but higher than expected Multiplier. There's no way this won't even have a multiplier of 2.4. I am thinking of a 2.55-2.6 Multiplier for something between 490-500m.

Do you know what other movie got an A cinemascore? IM3, Thor 2 got an A-. The two lowest multipliers of all MCU films.

[Burgess]

No one remembers second place, but they remember that your franchise holds the top 3 opening weekends of all time.

 

If Avatar 2, 3 and 4 only become the 3rd, 4th and 5th highest grossing films of all time do you think Fox will consider the franchise a failure?

[Yandereprime101189]

No one remembers second place, but they remember that your franchise holds the top 3 opening weekends of all time.

 

If Avatar 2, 3 and 4 only become the 3rd, 4th and 5th highest grossing films of all time do you think Fox will consider the franchise a failure?

 

At the rate things are going with those Avatar sequels, we won't find out about that until 2029.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Yandereprime

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

OMG THIS TROLLY THREAD TITLE!!!

LOLOLOLOLFOREVER!!!

[mahnamahna]

No one remembers second place, but they remember that your franchise holds the top 3 opening weekends of all time.

 

If Avatar 2, 3 and 4 only become the 3rd, 4th and 5th highest grossing films of all time do you think Fox will consider the franchise a failure?

They're still making those?? Cameron keeps postponing the production date 

[stripe]

Tons of discussion already about this gorgeous ow

 

only wanted to point that I predicted a slightly drop to 195M 

 

Hope this helps to lower the overpredictions SW7 OW is already having.

Edited May 4, 2015 by stripe

[Orestes]

Hope this helps to lower the overpredictions SW8 OW is already having.

 

It won't.

[#ED]

That's definitely true for ED and CJohn. A couple of instigators right there.

 

[Harpospoke]

Thanks.

 

Why am I disappointed in a 193 OW?

 

No Preview record.

No OD record.

No 100 OD

No OW record.

No 200 OW

 

Screw Disney laughing all the way to the bank.

 

I need milestones to feel progess and nobody remembers 2nd place

 

You certainly aren't going to enjoy following box office very often.     Fast 7?     Yawn....only 10th place OW.   But wait!  It was much better worldwide!    It was....oh wait.....2nd place.   Darn....not worth remembering.  

 

Remember that you can't just pick and choose when you apply "nobody remembers 2nd place".   If you think that's true, it's also going to be true for other movies which fail to break the OW record.     So if that phrase is a thing....it will be a thing later too.

 

 

I get what you're saying, baumer, but I don't think that "it's still a lot money" argument flies, because you could apply that to almost anything. Let's say it had made "only" 150m, that's still a shitload of money, but wouldn't you call it disappointing? I mean, this is a sequel to The Avengers we're talking about, not Ex Machina. So where would you draw the line? For me, below 190m would be somewhat disappointing. And again, disappointing does not equal bad.

 

150m certainly isn't the 2nd biggest OW of all time.    The standard for "impressive" is insane.    Disappointed that you didn't see what an amazing record 207 is and had unrealistic expectations?    That's valid.

 

We talk about how perfect box office storms are very difficult to duplicate but somehow can't see that breaking the OW record by 38 million was a perfect storm too.   We actually know a couple of factors are less now but most ignored that.  (Novelty factor, 3D share)   In hindsight, we know the sporting events took a bite.....we weren't smart enough to see that in advance....that's on us.

 

True, but we're used to sequels opening bigger in this day and age, even if the previous film broke the OW record (Batman managed it four times, after all). AOU was perfectly set up to at least match its predecessor's OW, especially since every movie in Phase II exceeded expectations at the box office.

That is why we keep getting it wrong.   Things we think we are "used to"....so we ignore things.   Same thing happened with TDKR....no Joker, no Ledger...yet many assumed it would match TDK anyway.

 

I think we are going to find out 207 is not a regular record.

 

Hindsight is a lovely thing.

Indeed!

[Noctis]

Cinemascore is used by desperate people.

 

Enough with using it as a barometer of how a film's WOM is going to be. 

[The Stingray]

150m certainly isn't the 2nd biggest OW of all time.    The standard for "impressive" is insane.    Disappointed that you didn't see what an amazing record 207 is and had unrealistic expectations?    That's valid.

 

We talk about how perfect box office storms are very difficult to duplicate but somehow can't see that breaking the OW record by 38 million was a perfect storm too.   We actually know a couple of factors are less now but most ignored that.  (Novelty factor, 3D share)   In hindsight, we know the sporting events took a bite.....we weren't smart enough to see that in advance....that's on us.

 

TA's OW record is one of the most impressive box office feats of all time, I acknowledge that. And maybe I did have unrealistic expectations, I acknowledge that as well. But at the same time you can always use "unrealistic expectations" to replace "disappointment". Anyways, f**k it, I guess Coolio was the only smart one here. FYI, I don't think ~193m is a disappointing number.

[CJohn]

That's definitely true for ED and CJohn. A couple of instigators right there.

Dafuq?

[Infernus]

You certainly aren't going to enjoy following box office very often. Fast 7? Yawn....only 10th place OW. But wait! It was much better worldwide! It was....oh wait.....2nd place. Darn....not worth remembering.

Remember that you can't just pick and choose when you apply "nobody remembers 2nd place". If you think that's true, it's also going to be true for other movies which fail to break the OW record. So if that phrase is a thing....it will be a thing later too

Well yeah we can. If a movie was highly expected by a number of paid professionals to break the OW record than we are going to be disappointed when it misses by a good margin while no ones gonna be disappointed or not gonna take note when an ignored movie gets into even the top 20 list. That is why box office and success and disappointment in this field is a very subjective and dependent thing. If you don't even understand that and think that the same measures for success and failure should be applied to all movies than you know nothing about box office.

[ecstasy]

Dafuq?

 

Yeah I would replace you with Tele the hater.

[grim22]

Possible finishes with 193M OW

Cap 2 legs: 518M

IM3 legs: 453M

Thor 2 legs: 449M

Avengers legs: 578M

[ecstasy]

So did we get a revised estimate yet?

Possible finishes with 193M OW

Cap 2 legs: 518M
IM3 legs: 453M
Thor 2 legs: 449M
Avengers legs: 578M

 

LOL what about it having its own legs?

[Sam]

CJohn doesn't instigate, he jinxes stuff.

Ed is a master at instigation though. He thought he's being subtle at it too. Which is funny.

[redfirebird2008]

Cinemascore is used by desperate people.

 

Enough with using it as a barometer of how a film's WOM is going to be. 

 

Yeah, CinemaScore is only helpful at the extreme ends like A+ or B-. IM3 had an "A" and ended up with a 2.35 multiplier. The bigger they open the harder they fall.

 

TA1's 3.09 multiplier was pretty much a miracle after such an enormous opening. The best multiplier I see happening for TA2 is around Cap 2's 2.73, which would give it a $527m total (assuming $193m weekend actual). Realistically though it will probably end up around a 2.5 to 2.6 multiplier ($480-500m).

[KATCH-2D2]

You certainly aren't going to enjoy following box office very often.     Fast 7?     Yawn....only 10th place OW.   But wait!  It was much better worldwide!    It was....oh wait.....2nd place.   Darn....not worth remembering.  

 

Remember that you can't just pick and choose when you apply "nobody remembers 2nd place".   If you think that's true, it's also going to be true for other movies which fail to break the OW record.     So if that phrase is a thing....it will be a thing later too.

 

150m certainly isn't the 2nd biggest OW of all time.    The standard for "impressive" is insane.    Disappointed that you didn't see what an amazing record 207 is and had unrealistic expectations?    That's valid.

 

We talk about how perfect box office storms are very difficult to duplicate but somehow can't see that breaking the OW record by 38 million was a perfect storm too.   We actually know a couple of factors are less now but most ignored that.  (Novelty factor, 3D share)   In hindsight, we know the sporting events took a bite.....we weren't smart enough to see that in advance....that's on us.

 

That is why we keep getting it wrong.   Things we think we are "used to"....so we ignore things.   Same thing happened with TDKR....no Joker, no Ledger...yet many assumed it would match TDK anyway.

 

I think we are going to find out 207 is not a regular record.

 

Indeed!

Great post.

 

And AOU OW is second only to it's own prequel, which makes it easier to remember.

[grim22]

So did we get a revised estimate yet?

LOL what about it having its own legs?

This is the range though. Avengers legs is best case since it is hard to follow the legs of a phenomenon without having the benefit of major holidays.