CJohn Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Ted 2 flopping like a boss. I bet at the beginning of the year Universal didn't see this June coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenstate5 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I have my thoughts but I'll save that for the thread. Am still seeing it on Monday out of pure boredom, I wonder how empty the theater will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
envyblog Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) kitik, on 25 Jun 2015 - 12:18 PM, said: what a truly awful and worthless comparison I bet someone is reconsidering their knowledge on box office right now. Edited June 28, 2015 by Enveeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Loved the numbers for JW and IO Ted2 - Expected disappointment. I actually thought it grossed too much. I was hoping for less than $30 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 So, Spy is going to have about a 25% drop. I'm not one of those guys to say I told you so, but I did. Right from the beginning WOM on this was sure to make it a leggy film. so I looked at the Proposal for a comparison. The Proposal fell 45% in its second weekend against Transformers 2 and then after that it stabilized for the rest of the summer. Spy is going to do the same. It's going to hit a 4X because it's a really fun movie. IO is a monster. It's going to drop incredibly well this weekend and that's pretty incredible coming off an inflated weekend. JW is obviously crumbling. Where is that dude anyway? Fake, who is a great box office guy, said this might not hit 600. I said it would easily pass Avengers. It will and it has it's site set on Titanic now. With about a 56% jump, this is looking like Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for weekend bumps. It too was jumping 55% on Saturdays in June. Difference is of course, JW has monster weekdays. The weekend projections are going to be interesting. With a 22% Sunday drop, JW makes 55.7 mill this weekend. With an 18% drop, IO makes about 53 mill. Universal should just come out on Sunday and declare victory. It seems certain this time. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 JW is definitely going to beat Titanic. TDK made another $140 million coming off $42.6 million in its third weekend. Assuming a 55M weekend for Jurassic World, with the same multiplier, it would do $680 million total. Following The Avengers, it would do roughly $665 million. I'd say it will probably end somewhere in between those totals. JW could end up making 50% more than AoU. (685/457) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 At this point, 600 is done, 630 is done and Titanic is a real possibility. I'd love to see it make 700. Probably won't but that would be about the most surprising gross of the year, hell of the last five years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookson Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Its probably already most surprising gross in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JennaJ Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 More than I care about JW passing Titanic, I really want it to stay #1 for the year. Not gonna be easy with SW7, but the higher it gets, the more likely it'll stay at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildphantom Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Imagine a 'Jurassic World over Titanic' club three weeks ago! Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I saw Almost Famous for the first (!!!) time today. I liked it a ton. I normally find Crowe's work incredibly cloying and I wasn't on board for what Hudson was doing a lot of the time, but his sweetness felt well placed in this movie. Great cast as well-- loved Sun Kil Moon showing up as the bassist. Favorite movie of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonenash Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=releases&id=independenceday.htm Hmmm imo it's a good date to re release in 3d may be a bit too late ahah mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=releases&id=independenceday.htm Hmmm imo it's a good date to re release in 3d may be a bit too late ahah mojo I think it's just postponed.....but I dunno..maybe they will re-release Independence Day in the future soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 So, Spy is going to have about a 25% drop. I'm not one of those guys to say I told you so, but I did. Right from the beginning WOM on this was sure to make it a leggy film. so I looked at the Proposal for a comparison. The Proposal fell 45% in its second weekend against Transformers 2 and then after that it stabilized for the rest of the summer. Spy is going to do the same. It's going to hit a 4X because it's a really fun movie. IO is a monster. It's going to drop incredibly well this weekend and that's pretty incredible coming off an inflated weekend. JW is obviously crumbling. Where is that dude anyway? Fake, who is a great box office guy, said this might not hit 600. I said it would easily pass Avengers. It will and it has it's site set on Titanic now. With about a 56% jump, this is looking like Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for weekend bumps. It too was jumping 55% on Saturdays in June. Difference is of course, JW has monster weekdays. The weekend projections are going to be interesting. With a 22% Sunday drop, JW makes 55.7 mill this weekend. With an 18% drop, IO makes about 53 mill. Universal should just come out on Sunday and declare victory. It seems certain this time. After the great reviews, I was thinking it would have a 4x-4.5x, similar to you. However, I expected $40-45 million OW on its way to $160-200 million DOM. Considering the budget, Tammy's horrid reception, and the fact that it will end up above Ted 2, Spy did extremely well it also leaves room for Trainwreck or Vacation to explode at the end of July. Maybe even both if Pixels, Ant-Man, Minions and MI5 cause a lot of sellout spillover. After all of the 'Pixar movies ONLY hold this, this and this' from so many doom-and-gloom predicters, IO just came and flat-out showed them it's a completely different beast. If it holds great next weekend, and drops less than 55% against Minions (I'm thinking 48-52%), it's pretty much set for 20-30% drops the rest of its run. Which should get it just across a 4x I think ($350-380 million DOM is my current range for it) Jurassic World is doing phenomenal, still! If it beats Avengers 1's 3rd weekend record, $35-40 million is possible for the July 4th frame. And if it breaks Avengers 1's 4th weekend, I'd say $650 million DOM is pretty much in the bag. I do think JW will drop 16-18% on Sunday as opposed to 22-26%. $55-57 million 3rd weekend is phenomenal. Jurassic World: 14.7 23.0 17.0 (-26%) 54.7 (-48%) Wknd Inside Out: 14.9 21.0 16.8 (-22%) 53.4 (-41%) Wknd Ted 2: 13.2 11.4 8.2 (-28%) 32.8 OW Spy 2.1 3.5 2.4 (-30%) 8.0 (-29%) Wknd San Andreas: 1.4 2.3 1.6 (-30%) 5.3 (-36%) Wknd Great holds across the board, coming from an inlfated last weekend. Spy laughed hard in Ted's face. Ted 2 just happened to underperform, and target a different R-rated demo than Spy. Spy targets older adults and older women, while Ted 2 targets teens, college kids and young women. There's slight overlap from men, but both have enough differences for them to co-exist. I think the same will happen for Trainwreck and Vacation next month. How anyone can be disappointed by that Inside Out number is beyond me. A 41% drop for an animated movie that opened at 90m is excellent. At this point it's going to pass Up, and 300m+ is basically locked. ....it was always going to pass up with a $90 million OW and zero competition for its first 2.5 weeks but $53-55 million 2nd weekend does lock $300 million DOM and I'd even dare to say $325 million is near locked (WALL-E had the lowest original Pixar multi and it did $320 million. This has far more GA appeal than WALL-E, so it should hold up at least a little better) $35 million (30% drop... unlike other animated films on July 4th, Inside Out has no direct family competition) - $268 mlilion DOM $17 million (52% drop... Minions will hurt, but IO should stabilize) - $305 million DOM $13 million (25% drop... Ant-Man double features) - $330 million DOM $9 million (33% drop... Pixels hurts it a little more) - $347 million DOM $7.5 million (20% drop... zero competition) - $361 million DOM (4x!!!) $5.5 million (30% drop... Shaun hurts slightly) - $370 million DOM $3.5 million (38% drop... Underdogs hurts slightly) - $375 million DOM $2.75 million (20% drop... zero competition) - $378 million DOM $2 million (30% drop... zero competition) - $380 million DOM $3 million/$4 million (Labor Day boost) - $385 million DOM $390 million-$395 million DOM after dollar theater run. Of course, if it holds slightly better than expected on Sunday, has a $40-42 million July 4th frame, and does $20-21 million against Minions, I might just say $400 million DOM is locked since there's no major direct competition the rest of the summer. Shaun and Underdogs aren't on the same level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I have my thoughts but I'll save that for the thread. Am still seeing it on Monday out of pure boredom, I wonder how empty the theater will be. For my session it was about a dirty dozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 WALL-E didn't do 320 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenstate5 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I don't think IO will do more than $350 mil (Minions will be strong), but a little less than is extremely possible and commendable considering what ppl thought may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JennaJ Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 How long until we get studio estimates? Wonder who'd predicted to come out on top in this race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wafflecakes Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Great hold by JW if it holds up with actuals! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mockingjay Raphael Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think it's safe to say that PP2 will be the biggest comedy of year, I'm so happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
