redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I am going for Tue and Wed lower than yours. 4.9 6.15 (+25.5%) 4.75 (-22.7%) 4.5-4.6 (-5% to -3%) Very reasonable projections. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 It's another CGI movie. It could even be a record setter so Inside Out should honestly drop above 45%. I would say 52% optimistically. Anything below 45% is a good hold but I'm not expecting it. Sometimes we expect recovery but it does not happen. Lost business is lost business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 20.2 weekdays... can't see how it would miss $20 million weekend at that point... maybe $19 million? Either way, those weekday holds should help it despite Minions' OW. Even with 4.5m Thu it can get 20m. +35% bump is what's needed for a 6m Friday. +35% again for 8.1m Saturday. -25% for 6m Sunday. 20.1m weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 It's another CGI movie. It could even be a record setter so Inside Out should honestly drop above 45%. I would say 52% optimistically. Anything below 45% is a good hold but I'm not expecting it. Sometimes we expect recovery but it does not happen. Lost business is lost business. I think the drop will be mitigated more cause Sat to Sat drop will be very good this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 (edited) 20.2 weekdays... can't see how it would miss $20 million weekend at that point... maybe $19 million? Either way, those weekday holds should help it despite Minions' OW. If it gets 20m weekdays + 18m weekend, it's total will be 284m. If it makes 3.5x the weekend in the rest of the run, it will get 284 + 3.5*18 = 347m. With 20m weekdays + 19m weekend 285 + 3.5*19 = 351.5m. Should cross 350m imo. Edited July 7, 2015 by a2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Even with 4.5m Thu it can get 20m. +35% bump is what's needed for a 6m Friday. +35% again for 8.1m Saturday. -25% for 6m Sunday. 20.1m weekend. Anything above 20M this wk is a win for IO, that would mean it's heading for 350+M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Above 20m weekend would completely lock 350m+ for IO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 (edited) Above 20m weekend would completely lock 350m+ for IO. If it gets 20m weekdays + 18m weekend, it's total will be 284m. If it makes 3.5x the weekend in the rest of the run, it will get 284 + 3.5*18 = 347m. With 20m weekdays + 19m weekend 285 + 3.5*19 = 351.5m. Should cross 350m imo. Even with 18m weekend I can see Disney giving it a push to 350m. Disney is the King of pushes. MU got a big push http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=monstersinc2.htm and IO has been far better received. Edited July 7, 2015 by a2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 One thing to keep in mind is the further we move into summer, the stronger the weekdays will be relative to the weekends. $20m weekend for IO would require a sub-33% drop against a massive animated opener. Even though last weekend was deflated, I don't think it was deflated enough to guarantee that kind of number for this coming weekend. I'm expecting around $18m for the weekend (39.5% drop, still great). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 (edited) If a2k's 4.6m Thursday comes true-- Friday: 4.7m (+2%) Saturday: 6m (+27%) Sunday: 4.6m (-23%) 15.3 (-48.6%), 281m total That seems plenty conservative to me. Toy Story 3 went up 26% on Fri against DM1. It would need a 4.66x from there to reach Nemo but again TS3 did better. Edited July 7, 2015 by Gopher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenedictL11 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 (edited) If a2k's 4.6m Thursday comes true-- Friday: 4.7m (+2%) Saturday: 6m (+27%) Sunday: 4.6m (-23%) 15.3 (-48.6%) That seems plenty conservative to me. I see a 30% Saturday increase. By 4th weekend, Monsters University and Brave managed that. Edited July 7, 2015 by BEEJAYGRAD11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop54 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Minions will knock IO for a huge loop this weekend, I doubt IO holds that we'll at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 If a2k's 4.6m Thursday comes true-- Friday: 4.7m (+2%) Saturday: 6m (+27%) Sunday: 4.6m (-23%) 15.3 (-48.6%), 281m total That seems plenty conservative to me. Toy Story 3 went up 26% on Fri against DM1. It would need a 4.66x from there to reach Nemo but again TS3 did better. TS3 also had weaker Friday increases on weekends 2 & 3, suggesting IO is more of a weekend film than TS3 was. But DM1 opened around half of what Minions will do, maybe even less if Minions explodes to something crazy big. I'm thinking along these lines: Thurs - $4.6m Fri - $5.52m (+20%) Sat - $7.12m (+29%) Sun - $5.55m (-22%) $18.19m weekend and 38.9% drop from last weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 (edited) TS3 also had weaker Friday increases on weekends 2 & 3, suggesting IO is more of a weekend film than TS3 was. But DM1 opened around half of what Minions will do, maybe even less if Minions explodes to something crazy big. I'm thinking along these lines: Thurs - $4.6m Fri - $5.52m (+20%) Sat - $7.12m (+29%) Sun - $5.55m (-22%) $18.19m weekend and 38.9% drop from last weekend. That also sound very possible. Important distinction between IO and MU is that IO is very clearly demonstrating great word of mouth and MU never had a chance to really develop its audience (didn't help that adults generally saw it as lesser Pixar). It opened against DM2 AND a new Disney film that took away screens and it didn't stop making money but it just became a nonevent. TS3 by its fourth weekend was an established name in the marketplace and people who still wanted to see that movie didn't run away to Illumination. Minions will hurt more because of sheer size, but Pixar will do fine. Edited July 7, 2015 by Gopher 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 TS3 also had weaker Friday increases on weekends 2 & 3, suggesting IO is more of a weekend film than TS3 was. But DM1 opened around half of what Minions will do, maybe even less if Minions explodes to something crazy big. I'm thinking along these lines: Thurs - $4.6m Fri - $5.52m (+20%) Sat - $7.12m (+29%) Sun - $5.55m (-22%) $18.19m weekend and 38.9% drop from last weekend. That also sound very possible. Important distinction between IO and MU is that IO is very clearly demonstrating great word of mouth and MU never had a chance to really develop its audience (didn't help that adults generally saw it as lesser Pixar). It opened against DM2 AND a new Disney film that took away screens and it didn't stop making money but it just became a nonevent. TS3 by its fourth weekend was an established name in the marketplace and people who still wanted to see that movie didn't run away to Illumination. Minions will hurt more because of sheer size, but Pixar will do fine. TS3 had a 21.0m 4th weekend and made 75.8m more - 3.6x MU had a 10.6m 4th weekend and made 30.7m more - 2.9x IO could match TS3's multiplier considering it's 4th weekend will be hit with big competition and end up lower than otherwise. But even 18m weekend with 3.4x takes it to 345m. If Disney gives it the same push MU got (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=monstersinc2.htm) it will reach 350m. Though I think it won't need the push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 (edited) One weird thing: IO's number on Movietickets has been increasing since Minions reached top 5 while others' have been going down. IO is now 10.9% ahead of JW. I think IO might hold better than we think. Edited July 7, 2015 by bladels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 One weird thing: IO's number on Movietickets has been increasing since Minions reached top 5 while others' has been going down. IO is now 10.9% ahead of JW. I think IO might hold better than we think. Maybe or maybe it is just doing very well on the weekdays as it has for the entire run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Other thing is MovieTickets can be misleading. Yesterday Magic Mike and JP4 were tied on there and yet JP4 grossed around $1.5m more for the day. JP4 is one of the biggest walkup monsters I've ever seen. On July 4th I had two tickets purchased on Fandango several days in advance. All the way up until around 20 minutes before showtime, there were only 2 other seats purchased in the theater. It ended up being around 40-50% full due to walkup business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 38-40% inside out seems likely. You can't have another movie coming into the marketplace and feeling a hundred and twenty million dollars with the business and have inside and not be affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I'm wondering about Jurassic World's drop. We went from 2 2D and 1 3D down to just a 2D/3D split. I don't know how other theaters were doing, but we still were selling plenty of tickets all weekend for JW. Maybe I'm jumping to conclusions, but did Universal sacrifice some of JW's screens for more Minions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
