mahnamahna Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I don't think it's just a case of drive-ins though. Pitch Perfect 2 mysteriously dropped 15% on JP4's opening weekend while losing over 20% of its theater count. The only thing it had going for it was that it was a Universal movie. Seems they fudged it with some of JP4's money. Same kind of stuff goes on at every studio for big openers. In that respect, I think JP4 will benefit at least a little bit. Agreed. Cut PP2's gross for that weekend in half and you've got JW's actual OW. So $212 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenedictL11 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 James, on 09 Jul 2015 - 10:56 AM, said: This is my prediction from yesterday. I pretty much nailed it on the Thursday and if it follows this prediction it will drop 50%. Your Friday may be almost right (i personally think it will be closer to $4.8-5.1M), but a low Saturday increase? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Agreed. Cut PP2's gross for that weekend in half and you've got JW's actual OW. So $212 million. Wasn't just PP2. F&F7 actually jumped over 30% for the weekend gross while losing over 20% of its theaters, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I am also ready for JW destroying the feelings this weekend. God damn it John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenedictL11 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 No Minions is opening to $110-130 million. In mid-summer, that's not enough to bring everything to its knees. Especially after a deflated July 4th frame and Ted 2/Terminator disappointing big-time. But your Friday increase is clearly influenced by your love for Minions, because there's no way IO's Friday is below its Wednesday. So at least $5 million for Fri... I reckon $5.2-5.4 million, so a 25-30% Fri increase. Pretty reasonable, considering last Friday was inflated and Minions will hurt it. Your Saturday jump is awful considering IO's previous Sat jumps, Minions' frontloadedness towards Thurs/Fri, and how awful your IO Friday jump predict is. Only 20%? More like 30-35%. So $6.6-7 million Sat. Pretty reasonable, considering Minions will burn up a lot of upfront demand on OD, and last Sat was extremely deflated. Figure a regular 20% Sun drop... $5.2-5.5 million Sun. $17-17.9 milion for the weekend, with relatively average projections. I'm not expecting something ridiculous like a 65% Fri increase, 45% Sat increase and 5% Sun drop. $16-18 million is the range for IO, due to older adults simply not caring about Minions its great WOM, and the fact that the BO is relatively dead beyond Minions. Also, the $21 million weekdays makes $14 million for the weekend seem a little ridiculous. Even with Minions hurting it, it shouldn't only do 65% of its weekdays over the weekend. Although I know you sometimes overpredict, I think you might be right this week about IO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Wasn't just PP2. F&F7 actually jumped over 30% for the weekend gross while losing over 20% of its theaters, lol. $212.3 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KATCH-2D2 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I don't think it's just a case of drive-ins though. Pitch Perfect 2 mysteriously dropped 15% on JP4's opening weekend while losing over 20% of its theater count. The only thing it had going for it was that it was a Universal movie. Seems they fudged it with some of JP4's money. Same kind of stuff goes on at every studio for big openers. In that respect, I think JP4 will benefit at least a little bit. I hope you're right. As long as it can keep up with TA's 5th WE (or at least not too far behind) then I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenstate5 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I am also ready for JW destroying the feelings this weekend. But they're such good friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) Although I know you sometimes overpredict, I think you might be right this week about IO. All I was trying to say is that IO isn't locked for a 50%+ drop with $21 million from weekdays and the fact that it's drawing in older adults that wouldn't go see something like Minions. I'd say $15.5-16.5 million is the reasonable prediction, with $16.5-17.5 million the less reasonable, and $17.5-18.5 million a best case scenario for the weekend. Especially if Minions opens to $130-150 million. I do overpredict a lot but I've actually gotten most of the big films right this year. American Sniper (kinda... I was thinking $200-220 million once everyone I knew on FB started posting 'I'm going to see that' a week or so before OW) Kingsman SpongeBob 2 Furious 7 ($325-350 million when everyone thought I was bonkers for thinking $300 million+ DOM) Pitch Perfect 2 ($170-200 million is the range I was thinking) Jurassic World (I predicted $425 million 3-4 weeks before OW. I knew it'd be a big crowdpleaser... but even $650 million was beyond my wildest dreams ) Inside Out ($350-370 million has been my predict for the last couple of months... especially after the Cannes buzz) I was way off on 50 Shades and Avengers 2, but my bullish predictions have either been equaled, slightly surpassed, or completely blown to smithereens for the most part, lol. Edited July 10, 2015 by mahnamahna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Scary thought here using DM2/IO's 24 multi from previews. $8.71m x 24 = $209m weekend. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenedictL11 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 All I was trying to say is that IO isn't locked for a 50%+ drop with $21 million from weekdays and the fact that it's drawing in older adults that wouldn't go see something like Minions. I'd say $15.5-16.5 million is the reasonable prediction, with $16.5-17.5 million the less reasonable, and $17.5-18.5 million a best case scenario for the weekend. Especially if Minions opens to $130-150 million. I'm predicting in the $15.5-$16.5M range but would love for it to go higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Scary thought here using DM2/IO's 24 multi from previews. $8.71m x 24 = $209m weekend. :o Where'd you get 8.71M from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Where'd you get 8.71M from? I was just trying to figure out what number in theory could put the weekend record in play. The bigger the previews compared to films like DM2 and IO, the more frontloaded it should be...but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 What's up with the frontloadness for several blockbusters we get? Isn't that a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 What's up with the frontloadness for several blockbusters we get? Isn't that a bad thing? Not necessarily 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Scary thought here using DM2/IO's 24 multi from previews. $8.71m x 24 = $209m weekend. :o If its previews are over $6.5-7 million, that suggests frontloading to me. With $8.7 million in previews, my guess would be $40.5 million Fri, $44 million Sat, $36.5 million Sun. So a $130 million OW. It would probably need $15-20 million in previews to reach $200 million+ this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 If its previews are over $6.5-7 million, that suggests frontloading to me. With $8.7 million in previews, my guess would be $40.5 million Fri, $44 million Sat, $36.5 million Sun. So a $130 million OW. It would probably need $15-20 million in previews to reach $200 million+ this weekend. So you think it will be as frontloaded as stuff like The Avengers or Jurassic World? It's animation. They are never that frontloaded, ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) So you think it will be as frontloaded as stuff like The Avengers or Jurassic World? It's animation. They are never that frontloaded, ever. Shrek the Third was pretty frontloaded And yes, because there's only so high you can go for the weekend after $15-20 million previews. If Minions were to reach that amount, $200-220 million is the absolute highest it would go. Avengers/JW weren't frontloaded for that matter they played like kids/family films throughout their OWs. We've never had an animated film open to $125 million unadjusted, so we really have no clue how a $150 million+ animated OW would look like in terms of frontloading. Shrek the Third is the only one that comes close. Edited July 10, 2015 by mahnamahna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Shrek the Third was pretty frontloaded And yes, because there's only so high you can go for the weekend after $15-20 million previews. If Minions were to reach that amount, $200-220 million is the absolute highest it would go. Avengers/JW weren't frontloaded for that matter they played like kids/family films throughout their OWs. We've never had an animated film open to $125 million unadjusted, so we really have no clue how a $150 million+ animated OW would look like in terms of frontloading. Shrek the Third is the only one that comes close. Shrek 3 was frontloaded from weekend to total gross, but not over opening weekend. It jumped 22% on opening Saturday for instance. What did Shrek 3 make at midnight? The only thing I can find is that it made $900,000 in Thursday previews and those were counted as Thursday money, not weekend money. TS3 made $4m midnight and then had a 27.5 multi to $110m weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Only people that don't have kids would say that they have no interest in seeing minions just because there's no jokes for adults. If kids like it parents automatically will like it. So parents can't have different opinions from their children. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
