Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

[baumer]

Kevin Feige is a genius

Ant Man is doing Thor business. Itll be fine.

[DAR]

I thought the scuttlebutt even before its release is AM was going to be a one off.

[scoobysaurus]

Then Terminator Genisys should get sequels too since it's probably going to break even with China still to come. I think the same movie would be at 70% on RT if it had a Marvel logo at the start. I watched it with zero expectations and it was nowhere near as bad as everyone was saying.

[KATCH-2D2]

If a movie breaks even with just theatrical run then it has done very well.

Ant Man is getting a sequel as long as it grosses 150M+ domestic and there is enough goodwill to ensure that the sequel's gross will not go down (home video sales are a good indicator of that).

DOM/OS ratio generally keeps getting better with sequels, so if it does 250M then the sequel will easily do 300M+. Any studio will be happy with 450-500M guaranteed gross.

 

Ant-Man is going to be profitable and it's sequel is going to make more money. The question is, do we need another Ant-Man movie even though we're going to see the character any way in CW and IW1 & 2? I'd rather have Marvel made sequels to more interesting characters (IM4 is a no for me too).

[Infernus]

Well I'm no box office expert (yet) and correct me if I'm wrong but I think Ant-Man is barely going to break even.

 

The movie has a budget of $130m. Assuming it makes $160m dom, it'll make a profit of $80m. So it's going to need $50m profit from overseas for which it has to gross approximately $200m overseas. It's going to make around $250m OS IMO and with that it barely breaks even. And this is without considering marketing costs. Why would studios want to make sequels to movies that aren't very profitable? They're much better off making IM, CA or Avengers sequels rather than Ant man.

 

It will need no more than 350m WW to break positive. Its gonna make around 500m WW so it'll make around 130m Profit. Even with your expectations, its making 410m WW thus getting around 60m profit. That is enough for a sequel. The main thing's not how much profit 'this' is making. Even Cap 1 or Thor 1 didn't make much profit. The first part, the origin part, is just for laying the foundation. If the film ends up being liked by the audience that would mean a near-sure increase both Dom and definitely OS for the next part. Anyways, its going to make profit from the TV Rights and the DVD sales and even through the little merchandise its gonna sell which would lead to a much greater profit than what its pure Box Office may suggest.

[JennaJ]

Then Terminator Genisys should get sequels too since it's probably going to break even with China still to come. I think the same movie would be at 70% on RT if it had a Marvel logo at the start. I watched it with zero expectations and it was nowhere near as bad as everyone was saying.

 

It had a higher budget than Ant-Man, and is gonna make a lot less domestic.

Also, its critical and audience reception are not even close to being comparable. I'm not sure Marvel can count on an Ant-Man sequel to grow from the first one, but you can basically bet that a Terminator sequel will only bleed more and more viewers, since that's been the trajectory for a while and this last one did not have good WOM.

[a2k]

Ant-Man is going to be profitable and it's sequel is going to make more money. The question is, do we need another Ant-Man movie even though we're going to see the character any way in CW and IW1 & 2? I'd rather have Marvel made sequels to more interesting characters (IM4 is a no for me too).

 

Rather than seeing Ant-Man in his own sequel, I wish Marvel gives him a decent/bigger role as past of an ensemble cast, and his presence will keep with proceedings fresh(even visually, because he sees the world in a different proportion) and light. Doing both, stand-alone movie and supporting roles, would lead to overexposure.

Edited July 19, 2015 by a2k

[KATCH-2D2]

Typical overreaction of the internet the same way as a movie called SUICIDE SQUAD will be a one off for the DCU.. With a title like SUICIDE SQUAD, what kind of an audience do you expect to buy into something like that beyond the internet/comic-con crowd???

 

I don't know how well SS is going to do next year but SS first teaser has created more hype than Ant-Man ever had in it's entire marketing campaign.

[La Binoche]

Black Widow would have made more money than Ant-Man. Fucking Marvel.

[a2k]

Typical overreaction of the internet the same way as a movie called SUICIDE SQUAD will be a one off for the DCU.. With a title like SUICIDE SQUAD, what kind of an audience do you expect to buy into something like that beyond the internet/comic-con crowd???

 

As if internet and comic fans represent a small crowd.

[JennaJ]

I liked Ant-Man, I'm more excited about his involvement in the future of the MCU than basically any other new character introduced in Phase 2 except for the Guardians.

 

But I don't need a 2nd Ant-Man movie anytime soon. I'd be happy enough to see him play a substantial role in Civil War or Infinity War.

 

That's much better than some characters I'd prefer to see killed off ASAP like Hawkeye, Falcon or Vision.

[Asyulus]

When will weekend estimates come?

[a2k]

Black Widow would have made more money than Ant-Man. Fucking Marvel.

Would have eaten it raw

[scoobysaurus]

It will need no more than 350m WW to break positive. Its gonna make around 500m WW so it'll make around 130m Profit. Even with your expectations, its making 410m WW thus getting around 60m profit. That is enough for a sequel. The main thing's not how much profit 'this' is making. Even Cap 1 or Thor 1 didn't make much profit. The first part, the origin part, is just for laying the foundation. If the film ends up being liked by the audience that would mean a near-sure increase both Dom and definitely OS for the next part. Anyways, its going to make profit from the TV Rights and the DVD sales and even through the little merchandise its gonna sell which would lead to a much greater profit than what its pure Box Office may suggest.

 

I thought studios get much lower % of OS gross compared to domestic. Anyway, I guess it does make sense if you look at the big picture with increases for sequels, etc. On a side note, I'm on holiday in India and I couldn't find a single screen showing TG or AM here in Hyderabad. I asked a guy at the cinema when Ant Man is coming to IMAX and he says they'll stick to JW this weekend. Every cinema has Bhaijaan, Bahubali or Jurassic World and the JW shows are still selling out so a part of me is glad, but it sucks that I had to watch a pirated version of TG. I'll watch it again in IMAX along with Ant-Man once I'm back in Dubai. 

 

It had a higher budget than Ant-Man, and is gonna make a lot less domestic.

Also, its critical and audience reception are not even close to being comparable. I'm not sure Marvel can count on an Ant-Man sequel to grow from the first one, but you can basically bet that a Terminator sequel will only bleed more and more viewers, since that's been the trajectory for a while and this last one did not have good WOM.

 

I guess that makes sense, thanks. It was a fun popcorn movie though. Or maybe I just feel that way because I watched it thinking it would be the worst movie I've seen in my life based on reviews here when it clearly wasn't THAT bad..

[Fake]

I think I was over 1000 DVDs before I switched over to blu-ray. I've been trading and selling (pennies on the dollar) them ever since to make room.

Well..... I have a collection of about 200 movies on Blu-Ray and it didn't cost me a single penny!

My uncle owns a store and he is kind enough to lend me blu-rays as soon as they arrive for a night. I rip it without any compression (normally takes 30-40GB) and store it in my Hard Disk. IMO managing 3 hard disks is a lot easier than 200 copies. Another benefit is that I can directly watch it on my PC or I copy the folder in my 64GB USB drive and plug it in the blu-ray player and see it on HDTV.

[Chaz]

Typical overreaction of the internet the same way as a movie called SUICIDE SQUAD will be a one off for the DCU.. With a title like SUICIDE SQUAD, what kind of an audience do you expect to buy into something like that beyond the internet/comic-con crowd???

remember when the incredible hulk was going to make more money than tdk

[Fake]

Ant-Man is going to be profitable and it's sequel is going to make more money. The question is, do we need another Ant-Man movie even though we're going to see the character any way in CW and IW1 & 2? I'd rather have Marvel made sequels to more interesting characters (IM4 is a no for me too).

Well, I am not opposed to further Ant-Man movies but I think these second-tier superheroes will work better in ensemble cast, for example, a movie featuring Ant-Man, Hawk Eye & Black Widow.

[Fake]

BTW, I keep hearing here that Ant Man is "not bad" but its imdb rating is pretty high atm(8.1) and will probably settle over 7.5.

[La Binoche]

Celebrate the 20th anniversary of Clueless while you wait for the numbers. 

 

Released July 19, 1995. 

 

[Boxofficerules]

The word of mouth on Terminator has mainly been "it's ok, not as bad as I thought". While there are people who hated it and loved it, the majority seems to just be its ok. People aren't going to get hyped up for a sequel to a movie they felt was only ok.