Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

[GiantCALBears]

That ant man total is ok, nothing more nothing less.

[a2k]

2ND UPDATE, 1:05PM: Early afternoon estimates are showing Ant-Man with a low-to-mid $20M Friday putting it on course for a high $50M to low $60M weekend. Meanwhile, Universal’s Trainwreck is showing signs that it could potentially become director Judd Apatow’s biggest opening at the domestic B.O. with a mid $30M weekend, besting 2007’s Knocked Up which made $30.7M.  The studio’s other heavy hitter, Minions looked like it could possibly be eating Ant-Man‘s lunch at the box office. At this point in time, the little yellow pills are bound to have a Friday that’s mid-to-high teens, putting it at No. 2 with a low-to-mid $50M take.

 

http://deadline.com/2015/07/ant-man-trainwreck-amy-schumer-box-office-1201478786

Edited July 17, 2015 by a2k

[GiantCALBears]

Those GOTG crazy comparisons can be safely discarded now.

[GiantCALBears]

Nice total for trainwreck, Schumer is no doubt at the peak right now.

[grim22]

Low to mid 20s right now will probably end up being high 20s by the end of the day.

[Ethan Hunt]

Hmmmm...

[Kalo]

Low to mid 20s right now will probably end up being high 20s by the end of the day.

 

Lets hope so...

[Deep Wang]

While 65m for ant-man is true from an economic standpoint this new guy has a point.

You have 100m dollars to spend on a movie, you could make Ant-Man or Minions. While both will make a profit, itd be much better to invest that 100m in Minions because it will yield the higher return. (Just an example I know marvel can't make Minions)

However, Marvel budgets usually range on the 200m end, if Ant-Man is only on the 100m end budget wise, it could prove to be a much better investment than say The Dark World because it only has to make half as much money to wield a profit.

If it gets 400-500m WW itd be a bigger success than Dark World, and possibly Winter Soldier. Biggest difference here though is Winter Soldier and The Dark World will both increase awareness (and profit) for future crossovers like Civil War and The Avengers, and merchandising is going to be much more popular for them than Ant-Man.

Tl;dr Don't go into Opportunity Cost when on a box office forum because the discussion would only be long and painstaking for a single movie.

 

Using your example, yes, you could take your $100m and make Minions, but what's next?  You can only make one of them every 2-3 years at best.  Plus, you will eventually burn out the audience.  Look at the original Batman/Superman movies.  Spider-man has decreased for the last 4 films.  It always happens and it will continue to happen.

 

To me, diversifying your output to be able to continue to make money seems a hell of a lot smarter to me than just sticking with the same thing until it's dead.  Marvel is in the very unique position to do this with tons of characters at their disposal and they are making it happen.

[druv10]

Those GOTG crazy comparisons can be safely discarded now.

Who said this? 60-65M/180-190M is a win in my book.

Edited July 17, 2015 by druv10

[a2k]

with 25m,

6.4 + 18.6 + 20 + 15 = 60m seems the most it could do.

27m could give 65m.

[grim22]

Like Trainwreck, I think Paper Towns will over perform next weekend. Underserved demographics getting a movie to watch basically.

[Clef Ment]

It won't open <60M.

[Biggestgeekever]

 Trainwreck opening ahead of Ted 2 is something surely no one would have called a month ago. Absolutely incredible if that happens; Universal is just unstoppable. 

[BenedictL11]

Like Trainwreck, I think Paper Towns will over perform next weekend. Underserved demographics getting a movie to watch basically.

Paper Towns will probably open with $30M but anything above $40M will shock me. TFIOS had more starpower (Woodley + Elgort came hot off of Divergent). Plus, social media activity is behind it but is still good enough for a high 20s to low 30s opening, which would still be a great number.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

That would be solid for Ant-Man, and great for Trainwreck. Rooting for my fellow Jayhawk Rudd!!

[Ethan Hunt]

Like Trainwreck, I think Paper Towns will over perform next weekend. Underserved demographics getting a movie to watch basically.

p

I wish they would market it a little harder but oh well, it looks really great, literally can not wait (OK actually I can but I don't want to)

[a2k]

It won't open <60M.

 

24m (6.4 + 17.6) on Fri or less could give it <60m (even being bullish with Sat and Sun)

6.4 + 17.6 + 19.36(+10%) + 16.45(-15%) = 59.81m

Edited July 17, 2015 by a2k

[kitik]

 Trainwreck opening ahead of Ted 2 is something surely no one would have called a month ago. Absolutely incredible if that happens; Universal is just unstoppable. 

 

 

But still no super huge comedy.

There's room for Vacation to hit some big numbers.

[Ethan Hunt]

Yeah, under 60M is possible depending on what the Friday number actually ends up being

[Jandrew]

 Trainwreck opening ahead of Ted 2 is something surely no one would have called a month ago. Absolutely incredible if that happens; Universal is just unstoppable.

Well technically, Ted 2 is Universal, so they were stopped. Kind of ironic this is Uni vs Uni.