Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

[BenedictL11]

The Movietickets trend for today is pretty surprising. Ant-Man and Minions have both fallen in market share since morning, Ant-Man was at 38% and Minions was at 25%, now they are at 34% and 21%, but Trainwreck has gone from 16% to 22%. Trainwreck may hugely surprise this weekend.

Trainwreck is looking good for high 20s. I seriously think it will challenge in the $30M range.

[WrathOfHan]

The problem is all the 2D shows are always put at inconvenient times

 

Yeah, around my area 2D gets put in the afternoon often and not the morning. With Ant-Man 2D is in the morning this time when 3D is actually worth it 

[Ethan Hunt]

Someone tell me

how juicy is Falcon's role in the movie?

because that's probably make or break on whether I see it in theatres or not

[DAR]

So are we looking around Thor 1 and CA: TFA range for Ant-Man?

[Captain Craig]

So are we looking around Thor 1 and CA: TFA range for Ant-Man?

That's what most sane people have been saying since Jan/Feb, with anything over $200m as gravy. 

[AJG]

Someone tell me

how juicy is Falcon's role in the movie?

because that's probably make or break on whether I see it in theatres or not

It's pretty juicy, didn't expect to see the character for that long. Also the post credit scene is very exciting.

[Gautske]

The problem is all the 2D shows are always put at inconvenient times

 

 

Yeah, around my area 2D gets put in the afternoon often and not the morning. With Ant-Man 2D is in the morning this time when 3D is actually worth it 

 

I can't remember what/where I was just reading about 3D a few days ago, but it had something to do with the folks at RealD 3D talking up 3D capabilities (best performing movies) and about how much better they are at it now. Particularly, they said they've worked with studios/theaters to make sure 3D showings are now getting the prime slots to drive more business. They've really focused the past year or two on pushing those 3D screenings, I guess.

 

So if you want to blame anyone for that, I guess we can look at the 3D people and the exhibitors. 

 

EDIT: I think it was this Variety interview:

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/3d-the-walk-the-martian-reald-1201538750/

Edited July 17, 2015 by Gautske

[kitik]

Someone tell me

how juicy is Falcon's role in the movie?

because that's probably make or break on whether I see it in theatres or not

 

bigger than i expected

[The Panda]

What about opportunity cost with Ant-Man? Could Marvel have put the same resources into another project and be looking at 100 million plus opening instead of maybe 60? I think the answer is absolutely. So 60 million may be good in a vacuum, but not wide view. It's gotta do well over 200 to break even. Not gonna happen. Hows is this a win for Marvel, tell me!

While 65m for ant-man is true from an economic standpoint this new guy has a point.

You have 100m dollars to spend on a movie, you could make Ant-Man or Minions. While both will make a profit, itd be much better to invest that 100m in Minions because it will yield the higher return. (Just an example I know marvel can't make Minions)

However, Marvel budgets usually range on the 200m end, if Ant-Man is only on the 100m end budget wise, it could prove to be a much better investment than say The Dark World because it only has to make half as much money to wield a profit.

If it gets 400-500m WW itd be a bigger success than Dark World, and possibly Winter Soldier. Biggest difference here though is Winter Soldier and The Dark World will both increase awareness (and profit) for future crossovers like Civil War and The Avengers, and merchandising is going to be much more popular for them than Ant-Man.

Tl;dr Don't go into Opportunity Cost when on a box office forum because the discussion would only be long and painstaking for a single movie.

[mahnamahna]

Trainwreck is looking good for high 20s. I seriously think it will challenge in the $30M range.

If Trainwreck is selling more tickets than Minions, low 30s is the floor for it. Could do 45-50 if it explodes tonight. Would love to see Trainwreck come out of nowhere to win the weekend lol

[Avatree]

Someone tell me

how juicy is Falcon's role in the movie?

because that's probably make or break on whether I see it in theatres or not

It's not merely a cameo - it's enough for him to get his name in the main credits - but he is only in one scene, which is isolated from the rest of the movie and just an excuse to have an Avengers tie-in to the movie's story. Though, it is a full on action scene, giving him more of an action role than in Captain America 2.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Tree-5000

[kitik]

They also launched a merchandise line for the character that will continue through Civil War. That and the reduced budget is a win.

 

 

I literally just got home from the store (Meijer) buying donuts, and while I was there I peeked at the toy department, and I saw two different families taking $20 Ant-Man toys up to the checkout lanes.

 

As stated by Boner Omega, this is another brand that has been built and will now generate revenues for years to come.

[RichWS]

I'm guessing $62-65M. Having a hard time seeing how it reaches 70. Always figured (like others) that equalling the $65M of Thor and Cap 1 would be a success.

Happy to see Trainwreck doing well.

Edited July 17, 2015 by RichWS

[kitik]

It's not merely a cameo - it's enough for him to get his name in the main credits - but he is only in one scene,

 

use spoiler tags tree!

and you have a bad memory

I counted 3 scenes

[Mike Wazowski]

Thor: TDW did 85m with 7.1m in previews, Antman with 6.4m has a good shot at 70m+.OW

the thing is even with previews TDW increased on Saturday, i don't see Antman increasing this Sat. from friday

Edited July 17, 2015 by Mike Wazowski

[John Harris]

It's not merely a cameo - it's enough for him to get his name in the main credits - but he is only in one scene, which is isolated from the rest of the movie and just an excuse to have an Avengers tie-in to the movie's story. Though, it is a full on action scene, giving him more of an action role than in Captain America 2

.

Actually,

the Falcon is in a 2nd scene at the very end, very briefly, during Luis's final bit of hilarious exposition (during the same story that features Stan's cameo as the bartender, we see the Falcon talking to a friend-of-a-friend of Luis on a park bench).

And he does get one of the biggest laughs in the movie!

Edited July 17, 2015 by K1stpierre

[AniNate]

While 65m for ant-man is true from an economic standpoint this new guy has a point.

You have 100m dollars to spend on a movie, you could make Ant-Man or Minions. While both will make a profit, itd be much better to invest that 100m in Minions because it will yield the higher return. (Just an example I know marvel can't make Minions)

 

This coming from a Disney/Pixar fan?

Edited July 17, 2015 by tribefan695

[PDC1987]

Yes 130 million for the prod budget. But P&A is gonna be higher than Winter or Thor DW since Ant-Man is almost unknown property. They had to blast this worldwide non-stop for anyone to pay attention. So you are looking at 80 million P&A for Dom same for Foreign, so add 160 million to the 130 million. Total cost worldwide for theatrical and digital release will be around 400 million. It's gotta do at least 200 domestic to even think about a profit. Just saying that is a lot of money to spend to break even.

No.

[Ethan Hunt]

Hmmm... Might be worth a morning showing might ask some friends to.go in the middle of the week

[Avatree]

Actually,

the Falcon is in a 2nd scene at the very end, very briefly, during Luis's final bit of hilarious exposition (during the same story that features Stan's cameo as the bartender, we see the Falcon talking to a friend-of-a-friend of Luis on a park bench).

 

And he does get one of the biggest laughs in the movie!

Yeah, I know he's in another shot but it barely counts. He has no actual role in the movie other than in that Avengers scene.

 

What was the big laugh from him?