Not So Fantastic Weekend Thread | MI5 29.4, F4 26.2, Gift 12, Ricki 7, Shaun 4, Vac 9, AM 7.8

[druv10]

Holy crap, that's pathetic for F4. It might not even make 20M OW with 9.5M OD. This is truly shocking.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

So no movie is doing 200~300m in 2015 ? It's either under 200m or over 300m.

[eddyxx]

Variety

 

"Early estimates show the 20th Century Fox release struggling to hit $30 million for the weekend, which is well below the anticipated mid-$40 million mark."

"The last major superhero release to premiere under $35 million was Sony’s “The Green Hornet” in 2011 ($33.5 million)."

 

 

 

Are they forgetting Ghost Rider 2? It opened to 22M. I want FF to open to 22M so it has a smaller OW than AM's opening day. FF over/under Ghost Rider 2?

[BenedictL11]

I could see the studio blaming Trank for pulling the film this far below tracking by sending out that tweet yesterday instead of sometime next week when the damage was already done.

 

I mean, Fox was reasonably predicting 40 mil and this may go 40% south of that. They're gonna look for reasons beyond "we totally totally screwed up every non-casting decision with this movie."

Totally agree.

 

How's The Gift, Ricki and Shaun looking? My projections: $3-4M, $2-2.5M and sadly $1-1.2M, respectively.

[kitik]

So no movie is doing 200~300m in 2015 ? It's either under 200m or over 300m.

 

 

Good Dinosaur and Spectre could hit that range.

[a2k]

So no movie is doing 200~300m in 2015 ? It's either under 200m or over 300m.

 

Cinderella 201m

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=cinderella2015.htm

[Empire]

Man this # is god awful! Bombs away!

[MovieMan89]

So no movie is doing 200~300m in 2015 ? It's either under 200m or over 300m.

Should be The Good Dinosaur's range. I think Everest could definitely fall in that range if it's well received. Pan and The Hateful Eight are maybes. Spectre a maybe as well if it gets bad WOM.

[a2k]

So no movie is doing 200~300m in 2015 ? It's either under 200m or over 300m.

 

Good Dinosaur and Spectre could hit that range.

 

I think The Martian could do it too. BO is projecting 172m.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Good Dinosaur and Spectre could hit that range.

Still very few compared with previous years.

 

Cinderella 201m

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=cinderella2015.htm

Thanks.

[Avatree]

Holy crap, that's pathetic for F4. It might not even make 20M OW with 9.5M OD. This is truly shocking.

Let's not exaggerate. I don't see it missing 20M...

[eddyxx]

The only music biopic to do over 75m is Walk the Line, and that was with loads of Oscar buzz. So it would be wise to keep expectations in check for a movie like Compton.

 

I have a Compton over Walk the Line club and I made it months ago. I wanted to be bold.  

[Heat Vision]

If FF makes 30 million is overperforming tbh

[MovieMan89]

I've detected zero tangible hype for The Martian, so I don't understand how it's supposed to perform so much better at the BO than the insanely hyped Prometheus? Scott does not make movies the general public like for well over a decade, so it having great WOM seems next to impossible.

[Chewy]

So no movie is doing 200~300m in 2015 ? It's either under 200m or over 300m.

 

Bond's got this

[Jack Nevada]

Whoa @ The Gift reviews. Cant wait to see it.

[a2k]

Cinderella(201) has quietly tiptoed over Godzilla(200.6).

edit: Also os 338.7 vs 328

Edited August 7, 2015 by a2k

[Heat Vision]

Let's not exaggerate. I don't see it missing 20M...

What if is less than 9 million?

[Avatree]

So no movie is doing 200~300m in 2015 ? It's either under 200m or over 300m.

Cinderella, Spectre, The Good Dinosaur, potentially The Martian. Some people here think Peanuts will do over 200.

[terrestrial]

I used to think reviews and internet reception pre-release didn't mean much for a movie's OW, but it seems like we have officially come into the age where it can have a noticeable impact.

 

I think it depends really a lot on the material it is based on, and/or the aimed for viewers and so on.

But an occasional very high impact I see since a long time.

Means I know e.g. - as recently mentioned - a '60 TV-series here in Germany that got canceled bcs the 'it-people' (cultural-wise..) thought it too militaristy.

To be 'in' a lot of ppl had to say a lot, so they could feel too like they are 'better'

It got canceled beside having over 30% at least up-to-56% of all households were watching it.

Zeitgeist, mass-posts, in-to-be-cool-via-overly-critism and so on. If a movie is aiming on such a group a big part of the GA might not even watch it, as the fans do not ask or even refuse to accompany them, and as such no buzz of 'normals' can counteract the 'hysterics'