Weekend Estimates: War Room 9.35 | SOC 8.8 | Walk 8.25 | MI 7.15 | Transporter 7.13 | Escape 5.4 | Gallo 3.4

[picores]

Mission:Impossible. Rogue Nation

 

Fri:    1.75

Sat:   2.71 (+55%)

Sun:  2.84 (+5%)

Mon:  2.13 (-25%)

 

3-day: 7.30 (-10%)

4-day: 9.43 (+15%)

 

It will be at 182-183m by Monday coming from a 7.3m weekend. 200m are happening. Fantastic legs carried by WOM and light competition. The franchise has an excelent health.

 

Edit: Sat jump could be bigger looking at last year, so i consider this the low end.

Edited September 5, 2015 by picores

[TalismanRing]

Since this thread is pretty sparse and I don't know if this is thread worthy on it's own

 

Here are the movies that got the worst sunburn.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

 

Tomorrowland: Expected loss: $120 million-$150 million

Fantastic Four:  Expected loss: $80 million-$100 million

The Man From U.N.C.L.E. Expected loss: $80 million-plus

Pixels: Expected loss: $75 million-plus

Aloha: Expected loss: $65 million

 

 

 

 

[FTF]

Since this thread is pretty sparse and I don't know if this is thread worthy on it's own

Here are the movies that got the worst sunburn.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

Tomorrowland: Expected loss: $120 million-$150 million

Fantastic Four: Expected loss: $80 million-$100 million

The Man From U.N.C.L.E. Expected loss: $80 million-plus

Pixels: Expected loss: $75 million-plus

Aloha: Expected loss: $65 million

Uncle does not belong on that list with those other turds, as it's actually a good movie :/

[WrathOfHan]

Since this thread is pretty sparse and I don't know if this is thread worthy on it's own

Here are the movies that got the worst sunburn.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

Tomorrowland: Expected loss: $120 million-$150 million

Fantastic Four: Expected loss: $80 million-$100 million

The Man From U.N.C.L.E. Expected loss: $80 million-plus

Pixels: Expected loss: $75 million-plus

Aloha: Expected loss: $65 million

I'm surprised how big of a loss UNCLE will have, it didn't seem like a 75M budget movie. Edited September 5, 2015 by WrathOfHan

[Exxdee]

Since this thread is pretty sparse and I don't know if this is thread worthy on it's own

 

Here are the movies that got the worst sunburn.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

 

Tomorrowland: Expected loss: $120 million-$150 million

Fantastic Four:  Expected loss: $80 million-$100 million

The Man From U.N.C.L.E. Expected loss: $80 million-plus

Pixels: Expected loss: $75 million-plus

Aloha: Expected loss: $65 million

 

How does Pixels lose 75 mil? It has made 180M worldwide, and more with China. 200M marketing? lol

[TalismanRing]

I'm surprised how big of a loss UNCLE will have.

 

The advertising was extensive (though less than Entourage which might be 6th on this list) and it's done as weakly in O/S markets as domestic.  They have the budget listed at $75m but Deadline keeps reporting $84m so it could be higher. (difference could be re-shoots).  WB knew that was too much for this movie with these leads.  It was originally budgeted at $90m with Cruise and when he left cut down to $60m but seems to have ballooned back up.  It's delayed release like JA probably also added a few million in interest payments

[MovieMan89]

Since this thread is pretty sparse and I don't know if this is thread worthy on it's own

 

Here are the movies that got the worst sunburn.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

 

Tomorrowland: Expected loss: $120 million-$150 million

Fantastic Four:  Expected loss: $80 million-$100 million

The Man From U.N.C.L.E. Expected loss: $80 million-plus

Pixels: Expected loss: $75 million-plus

Aloha: Expected loss: $65 million

There is no reason TL should be a bigger loser than F4. Just another example of Disney going overboard with budgets.

[HesAPooka]

How does Pixels lose 75 mil? It has made 180M worldwide, and more with China. 200M marketing? lol

Because from now on Adam Sandler is the new Tom Cruise and anything he does will be reported as a major flop even when it's not.

[DAJK]

UNCLE losing MORE than its budget? Doesn't make much sense even with marketing. The movie is going to earn well over 100M worldwide, there's no way it loses that much.

And that Pixels number is also pretty questionable.

[TalismanRing]

How does Pixels lose 75 mil? It has made 180M worldwide, and more with China. 200M marketing? lol

 

$88m budget with $75m-90m marketing would about do it.

 

Roughly:

 

Domestic $71,449,314  x 55% =  $39.297m

Foreign (-China) = $114,800,000   x .40% =  $45.92m

=$85.217

 

If it could make $100m in China only $25m would go back to the studio = so $110.2m to the studio

 

Then there might be (since there usually are) back end points for Sandler & Columbus

Edited September 5, 2015 by TalismanRing

[tonytr87]

Not "a lot" for me. Creed then November films till Star Wars.

The box office is already a wasteland of interest for me as currently. I have no interest in Maze Runner. 

 

Black Mass

Everest

Sicario

Suffragette

The Martian

Steve Jobs

The Walk

Crimson Peak

The Witch

 

Dude...what are you even doing here if none of those interest you? 

[MovieMan89]

Mission:Impossible. Rogue Nation

 

Fri:    1.75

Sat:   2.71 (+55%)

Sun:  2.84 (+5%)

Mon:  2.13 (-25%)

 

3-day: 7.30 (-10%)

4-day: 9.43 (+15%)

 

It will be at 182-183m by Monday coming from a 7.3m weekend. 200m are happening. Fantastic legs carried by WOM and light competition. The franchise has an excelent health.

 

Edit: Sat jump could be bigger looking at last year, so i consider this the low end.

It's following Guardians of the Galaxy's labor day pattern already as  I suspected it would. That had a 145% Friday jump, MI5 a 155% one. If its holds are the same as GOTG it will do aorund 7.8m for the 3 day and 10.5m for the 4 day. But maybe even higher than that since its Friday increase was already a little better than GOTG's. At any rate, 200 is completely locked now. GP is the goal. 

[Fake]

Mission:Impossible. Rogue Nation

Fri: 1.75

Sat: 2.71 (+55%)

Sun: 2.84 (+5%)

Mon: 2.13 (-25%)

3-day: 7.30 (-10%)

4-day: 9.43 (+15%)

It will be at 182-183m by Monday coming from a 7.3m weekend. 200m are happening. Fantastic legs carried by WOM and light competition. The franchise has an excelent health.

Edit: Sat jump could be bigger looking at last year, so i consider this the low end.

Yeah..... the legs have been splendid, especially considering that it is a sequel.

It would require around 2.9x multiplier from 4-day to hit $200m, which is possible, but it will take some time to get there.

[DAJK]

So, did more people watch JeremyJahns review of WAYF than actually saw WAYF?

[picores]

It's following Guardians of the Galaxy's labor day pattern already as  I suspected it would. That had a 145% Friday jump, MI5 a 155% one. If its holds are the same as GOTG it will do aorund 7.8m for the 3 day and 10.5m for the 4 day. But maybe even higher than that since its Friday increase was already a little better than GOTG's. At any rate, 200 is completely locked now. GP is the goal. 

 

GOTG had more family appeal and better internals mult than MI5 so far...i'm counting with that. Anyway, amazing numbers again for MI5   

[MovieMan89]

Yeah..... the legs have been splendid, especially considering that it is a sequel.

It would require around 2.9x multiplier from 4-day to hit $200m, which is possible, but it will take some time to get there.

How do you figure? Using the numbers Picores projected it would only need a 1.8x multi off of the 4 day (9.4 x 1.8 = 17). 

[MovieMan89]

We're def gonna get another something! Looking beyond the kids fare in Maze Runner and Hotel Transylvania, there's a ton of breakout potential among adult hits this year. One of Everest, Black Mass, The Martian, Steve Jobs, or Bridge of Spies seems liable to do really huge numbers. Or maybe they all regress towards the mean and all of them do 100 mill type business, I don't know. But this September and October is PACKED. 

 

This weekend though, LOL. Has there ever been a sequel that less people asked for than a  non-Statham Transporter movie? I can't think of any.

Yeah, this really looks like the most surefire record breaking Fall season ever. Usually we're lucky if we have two movies with true hit potential in the September/October period. We have literally about 10 this year. None until 9/18 weekend, but then it's all green light from there (Scorch Trials, Everest, Black Mass, The Walk, Steve Jobs, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Hotel Transylvania, Pan, Witch Hunter). Not that that necessarily means they all will be hits, but worst case scenario I'd say at least half will be 100m-ers. Hell even stuff like Goosebumps and Paranormal Activity have mild hit potential.

Edited September 5, 2015 by MovieMan89

[Fake]

How do you figure? Using the numbers Picores projected it would only need a 1.8x multi off of the 4 day (9.4 x 1.8 = 17). 

Your calculation is right, but when talking about multipliers you include the weekend( and give it a value of 1). For example, if a movie opened with 10M and finished with 30M, you would say it got a 3x multiplier (though it made 20M more after the OW, i.e. 2x)

[TalismanRing]

Here’s what it looks like tonight. As always, the numbers and positions may change in the A.M.:

1). Straight Outta Compton (UNI), 3,097 theaters (-45) / $2.25M to $2.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.18M to $9.37M / 4-day cume: $11.67M to $11.9M / Total cume: $150.6M to $150.8M / Wk 4

2). War Room (SONY), 1,526 theaters (+391) / $2.35M to $2.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8.8M to $10M (-23%) / 4-day cume: $11.4M to $11.9M / Total cume: $26.6M to $27M / Wk 2

3). A Walk in the Woods (BGP), 1,960 theaters / $2.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8.3M / 4-day cume: $10.8M / Total cume: $12.7M / Wk 1

4). Mission: Impossible-Rogue Nation (PAR), 2,849 theaters (-246) / $1.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.8M / 4-day cume: $10M / Total cume: $183.2M / Wk 6

5). The Transporter Refueled (EURC), 3,434 theaters / $2.375M to 2.4M (includes $365K Fri.) / 3-day cume: $7M to $7.1M / 4-day cume: $8.2M to $8.6M / Wk 1

6). No Escape (TWC), 3,415 theaters (+60) / $1.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.1M (-37%) / 4-day cume: $6.6M / Total cume: $19.6M / Wk 2

7). Man From U.N.C.L.E (WB), 2,102 theaters (-604) / $823K Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.5M / 4-day cume: $4.5M / Total cume: $40.4M / Wk 4

8). Ant-Man (DIS), 1,527 theaters (-163) / $601K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.9M / 4-day cume: $3.97M / Total cume: $174.2M / Wk 8

9). Sinister 2 (Gramercy/Focus), 2,651 theaters (-148) / $791K Fri. / 3-day cume: $3M / 4-day cume: $3.8M / Total cume: $24.1M / Wk 3

10). Inside Out (DIS), 2,967 theaters (+2,204) / $536K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.67M / 4-day cume: $3.8M / Total cume: $346.9M / Wk 12

 

http://deadline.com/2015/09/box-office-labor-day-2015-straight-outta-compton-war-room-transporter-refueled-walk-in-the-woods-1201515788/

[MovieMan89]

nvm 

Edited September 5, 2015 by MovieMan89