Official Weekend Estimates: Maze Runner - 30.3M | Black Mass - 23.4M | Everest - 7.5M | The Visit - 11.4M | Perfect Guy - 9.7M

[Nutterbutter]

I hope so too. Since it's the sequel it will likely be more frontloaded than the first* but maybe not too frontloaded in general (as the first wasn't frontloaded at all), so it could still bring in the numbers.

 

*Insurgent was slightly less frontloaded than Divergent though still frontloaded in general.

 

Note: When you write/stare at the word "frontloaded" too much it starts to look like "froot loops."

Edited September 18, 2015 by Nutterbutter

[Robot308]

Yeah, $10m looks to happen for both films today. I'm thinking Black Mass is #1.

I doubt it. I'm thinking Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials is #1

Edited September 18, 2015 by Red-Ops 9

[DAJK]

I can understand why Scorch Trials would be more front loaded than the first movie, but I don't necessarily agree that is's a "rule" that YA sequels are more frontloaded just given from the fact that the first film already had a fan base that would have already treated it as a sequel rather than an original film.

[WrathOfHan]

My 55M prediction for Black Mass is looking really bullish but oh well, it's going to get the tracking number up. Figures my original predictions for BM and Everest will happen lol

[grim22]

A high 30s weekend looks likely for Black Mass. MR2 number is good, but it started shows at 8pm compared to the 10pm start for the first movie, not a direct comp between this and the first movie.

[baumer]

Not really a big number for Maze.  Could it finish under 30 million?

[WrathOfHan]

Not really a big number for Maze.  Could it finish under 30 million?

 

Probably not, but who knows at this point.

[John Marston]

decent for Maze. Should at least Match the first one's gross

[Maxmoser3]

All solid that's pretty awesome especially for Black Mass considering that Johnny Depp hasn't had an original hit in years:

[RichWS]

Not really a big number for Maze. Could it finish under 30 million?

It's a pretty underwhelming number, especially when the first film had some of the better WOM of any YA flick to come along.

[MovieMan89]

Great for everything really. BM could definitely pull 40 or more using Gone Girl as a comparison, and Everest could do a solid 10m which is not far off from MI4's IMAX debut. MR2 could be a little better, but it should at least do around the first.

[RichWS]

Gone Girl comparisons have caused me to crank up the Reznor/Ross score for the first time in months. Oh, how wonderful it is.

[TalesofToday]

It's a pretty underwhelming number, especially when the first film had some of the better WOM of any YA flick to come along.

Where is this awesome WOM I keep hearing about? Sure it got a great cinemascore, but so did Divergent and Insurgent. Both Divergent and MR have a 6.8 on IMDB. Divergent has an audience score of 70% on RT with an average rating of 3.8. MR has a score of 68% and an average rating of 3.7. Fact is, WOM for MR beat expectations, but it was not significantly better than Divergent or near the same level of HG.

[CJohn]

I am already waiting for some Friday numbers. Dis weekend gonna be good.

[Nutterbutter]

TMR had a surprisingly strong multiplier (3.15) for this type of movie, better than the others in the genre, including The Hunger Games (2.68 for the first two, 2.78 for MJ1). It's generally believed that good WOM, coupled with not-too-bad critical reception, helped propel its legs and would lead to a decent increase for the sequel.

[RichWS]

Where is this awesome WOM I keep hearing about? Sure it got a great cinemascore, but so did Divergent and Insurgent. Both Divergent and MR have a 6.8 on IMDB. Divergent has an audience score of 70% on RT with an average rating of 3.8. MR has a score of 68% and an average rating of 3.7. Fact is, WOM for MR beat expectations, but it was not significantly better than Divergent or near the same level of HG.

I don't think anybody ever said it had "awesome" WOM. Over the last year, my Twitter feed has been fairly positive about it which surprised me to a degree. Certainly more enthusiasm than for Divergent or Insurgent.

[CJohn]

Transporter's TC drop is so disappointing.

[Cmasterclay]

Tremendous number for Black mass. Using Equalizer numbers it would do about 33 mill, and using Gone Girl comp it would do about 41 mill, so that seems like a reasonable range. Should do in the high 30s. 

 

Also, fun fact I just learned: back in the 1980s, Johnny Depp used to open for my Dad's band all the time. Depp had a punk band based in South Florida called the Kids, and my Dad happened to be one of the leaders of the South Florida rockabilly/punk scene, so Depp's band played with him and opened up for pops a few times. Apparently Depp came off like a bit of a punk, but my dad did note that all the young kids in that scene put on that persona, and really, plenty of evidence Johnny Depp is a pretty nice guy otherwise. Anyway, I'm just disappointed that we aren't talking about Black Mass starring Larry Miller this weekend  It coulda happened. 

Edited September 18, 2015 by cmasterclay

[La Binoche]

Go Johnny go go go! 

 

Destroy those boring dystopian teens! 

 

[baumer]

I personally thought MR was about as Vanilla a film as you could make.  Nothing horrible about it but nothing memorable.  I always thought this would pull an Insurgent.