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WrathOfHan

Official Weekend Estimates: Maze Runner - 30.3M | Black Mass - 23.4M | Everest - 7.5M | The Visit - 11.4M | Perfect Guy - 9.7M

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted

This will be pretty close. Solid for both movies though.

 

Two films in September potentially doing $35 million+ OW is pretty phenomenal. Especially since it wasn't until last weekend that two films in September did $25 million+ on the same weekend. 

 

And Everest/Hotel Transylvania 2 should keep up the trend. With The Martian, Pan, The Walk, Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs, and possibly Crimson Peak/Goosebumps possibly continuing the $20 million+ OW trend. 

 

See Hollywood... this is what happens when you release compelling films during non-summer/Christmas periods  :lol:

35m OW looks like a certain at this point for Black Mass. I will wait for Friday number which should be 13-15m.

If Gone Girl, which was based on a best-selling book, did $37 million OW off $1.3 million previews a year ago, Black Mass should be able to reach $37 to $41 million this weekend. 

 

Possibly as high as $43-45 million, if it ends up being fairly backloaded. 

 

Realistically $36-38 million is its range, though. 

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

Technically, if Scorch Trials follows the exact same pattern as Maze Runner, it gets 50M for the weekend. But earlier showtimes and (I expect) more front loading will cause this to fall well below that. I think 37M is a good bet, but would 40M be possible?

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Nutterbutter Sleeper Hit

Nutterbutter

Posted
Posted (edited)

Technically, if Scorch Trials follows the exact same pattern as Maze Runner, it gets 50M for the weekend. But earlier showtimes and (I expect) more front loading will cause this to fall well below that. I think 37M is a good bet, but would 40M be possible?

 

MR1's Thursday nights represented about 3% of its weekend total; if TST followed the same pattern, it would score $56M for the weekend. I don't think it will follow the same pattern. A $40M weekend would mean the previews represent 4.25%, which is ... doable-er?

Edited by Nutterbutter
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Mojoguy Global Phenomenon

Mojoguy

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Posted

MR1's Thursday nights represented about 3% of its weekend total; if TST followed the same pattern, it would score $56M for the weekend. I don't think it will follow the same pattern. A $40M weekend would mean the previews represent 4.25%, which is ... doable-er?

 

Scorch is a sequel so it will naturally be more frontloaded than the first MR.

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TalesofToday Straight-to-DVD

TalesofToday

Posted
Posted (edited)

Technically, if Scorch Trials follows the exact same pattern as Maze Runner, it gets 50M for the weekend. But earlier showtimes and (I expect) more front loading will cause this to fall well below that. I think 37M is a good bet, but would 40M be possible?

 

 

MR1's Thursday nights represented about 3% of its weekend total; if TST followed the same pattern, it would score $56M for the weekend. I don't think it will follow the same pattern. A $40M weekend would mean the previews represent 4.25%, which is ... doable-er?

 I don't think that an appropriate mathematical extrapolation.

 

Looking at the midnight previews for Divergent, Insurgent, Hunger Games, Catching Fire and Mockingjay, I get an average of 1m in gross for every 0.17m in previews beyond 1.1m (what MR did in previews). I think you're looking at 35-36m assuming similar audiences to the above movies.

Edited by Knoxcore
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