Maxmoser3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, Warmaster506 said: Star Wars is King. Get used to it. It will always be king. Because next December will have a successful spin off. May 2017 will be having some records in store for Episode VIII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 9 minutes ago, langer said: ROTK won a bunch of awards that TFA will not win. By that point the grosses were so low, it didn't make that much of a difference. Besides, TFA so far has displayed better legs than ROTK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3 minutes ago, Deedlit said: I'm thinking 48M. SW7 will have rather inflated second and third weeks (meaning 12/21-1/3) due to the holiday season, and that goes away the following week. I expect a drop worse than JW on the fourth weekend. It should drop better after that, but some damage will have been done. In the end it will do better than JW, but I'm thinking 1-1.2B. Rth only deals in absolutes. Only a Sith deals in absolutes! And Rth is not a Sith, he's like Yoda, basically. I agree there is only so much "demand" out there, in the sense that the pool of potential moviegoers is limited to some extent, but at the same time I really don't believe the film is anywhere near that limit yet. $550M with the premium formats, 3D, etc. through this weekend is probably 50 million tickets sold, maybe 55 million, sure. But there are 300 million Americans and even young kids can go see this movie. There are many, many more people out there. Not to mention people like me who will not contribute to the declines at all. I'll be there a few times every week until it leaves theaters; it's what I do. Of the people I know, since you asked, my girlfriend's grandparents are waiting for crowds to die down, which hasn't happened yet clearly. Her godfather and his wife are waiting as well. They have all said in no uncertain terms they ARE going, just waiting. My dad is waiting. His personal chef (don't ask) is waiting, too. My best friend Florian is waiting and still hasn't seen it, even though he's a young guy who I would think would have been there. I'll probably go with him. My sister is seeing it with me next week. Her boyfriend hasn't seen it either. Virtually everyone I know has a plan to see this movie, or has seen it, but the split at present is definitely no worse than 50-50, with half the people I know having plans to see it shortly but have not seen it yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxofficeth Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 hour ago, spizzer said: Pretty awesome. Expect soft Sunday drops across the board. All the openers decline, even Joy. Not quite good number. Back in 2009 when Christmas Day was last time on Friday, only Sherlock Holms dropped. I hope for really soft drop tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: And Rth is not a Sith, he's like Yoda, basically. Yoda in the streets Darth Maul in the sheets 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 44 minutes ago, Ozymandias said: 1.6b would make it #2 all time adjusted. Not happening dude lol Lol, yeah that's a fun dream but no. That being said as high as a 5x multi still isn't off the table, which is 1.24b or so. January will be the real test. 1 bil is locked. it should be anywhere between 800-830 next Sunday. I'm really liking my $1.111b prediction right now though in the box office contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ok Saturday increase after that disastrous Friday number. Sub 180 is still very sad and Disney should feel badly about how it's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Some of you peeps are funny. This is movie will cruise past 1B. Lock it up and throw away the key. You're telling me that a movie that will be near 800m after its 3rd weekend will suddenly drop off a cliff and die over the next 3 months! Because this movie will play in theaters well into March. Again, funny 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just now, Magic said: Ok Saturday increase after that disastrous Friday number. Sub 180 is still very sad and Disney should feel badly about how it's doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solaris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This would have to start falling 50% weekly after the new year to miss $1bn. I think we're looking at $1.1bn at this stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Perhaps the true test of how well a movie has done is if you can safely say that the biggest, craziest fan boys underestimated it. One of our users on TheForce.net got skewered for suggesting it could hit $250M on OW and that it would, if it's good, easily pass Avatar. Everyone assumed he was a nut job. But even he didn't have it going as high as $1 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenstate5 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 20 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: I agree there is only so much "demand" out there, in the sense that the pool of potential moviegoers is limited to some extent, but at the same time I really don't believe the film is anywhere near that limit yet. $550M with the premium formats, 3D, etc. through this weekend is probably 50 million tickets sold, maybe 55 million, sure. But there are 300 million Americans and even young kids can go see this movie. There are many, many more people out there. Not to mention people like me who will not contribute to the declines at all. I'll be there a few times every week until it leaves theaters; it's what I do. Of the people I know, since you asked, my girlfriend's grandparents are waiting for crowds to die down, which hasn't happened yet clearly. Her godfather and his wife are waiting as well. They have all said in no uncertain terms they ARE going, just waiting. My dad is waiting. His personal chef (don't ask) is waiting, too. My best friend Florian is waiting and still hasn't seen it, even though he's a young guy who I would think would have been there. I'll probably go with him. My sister is seeing it with me next week. Her boyfriend hasn't seen it either. Virtually everyone I know has a plan to see this movie, or has seen it, but the split at present is definitely no worse than 50-50, with half the people I know having plans to see it shortly but have not seen it yet. This. The amount of people I've heard that are "waiting for the crowds to die down" almost rival the amount of people I know who have seen it. Add on the crazy repeats still occurring and you have a pretty healthy winter run coming for it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Everything we sit around and bullshit about is just a theory until it happens, but I have a theory that TFA could hold stronger Weekend 3 to 4 than most movies would because of this "waiting for the crowds to die down" group. Almost everyone in this group who I know targets their "will see it" to be after the holidays. They all know it's a nightmare through January 3. If the film should drop 50% between Weekend 3 and 4, if this theory is right, it may drop more like 40%. Or better, who knows. Maybe some wait even further, middle January, end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, solaris said: This would have to start falling 50% weekly after the new year to miss $1bn. I think we're looking at $1.1bn at this stage. not necessarily true. I have it falling 38% next week, 52% weekend 4 37% weekend 5 46% weekend 6 and 39% weekend 7 and it would sit at 937mil Feb 7, and is crawling at that point. It might finish with 960mil in this scenario. To me it all comes down to monday 28 DEC. In this model I have it dropping 40% (about 30mil monday), I think it can do better, and if it want to do 1 million this is where it can alter the model to show a 1 bil total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
23IsEverywhere Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If TFA follows JW second weekend multiplier with a $155m weekend it would reach $900m so I have to say $900m 100% locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'd say 0% chance it falls to 30m on Monday. It has been following Avatar's holds too closely still to deviate that extreme so quickly. I highly doubt it drops anymore than 30% on Monday which would be like 35-36m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Disney will pull TFA out of theater if it try to flirt with $1b Remember that $59,982 OW theater average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just now, bladels said: Disney will pull TFA out of theater if it try to flirt with $1b Remember that $59,982 OW theater average I'm guessing Disney will want to release the Bluray and DVD while the iron is hot, and won't care about losing some gross in the process. As I recall, early video releases likely cost Frozen some money, particularly in Japan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solaris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 19 minutes ago, tokila said: not necessarily true. I have it falling 38% next week, 52% weekend 4 37% weekend 5 46% weekend 6 and 39% weekend 7 and it would sit at 937mil Feb 7, and is crawling at that point. It might finish with 960mil in this scenario. To me it all comes down to monday 28 DEC. In this model I have it dropping 40% (about 30mil monday), I think it can do better, and if it want to do 1 million this is where it can alter the model to show a 1 bil total. I have it at around 33% drop over the next week. W/end 3 + wk 3 combining for about $150m. Based on around 48% weekly drops thereafter I have it finishing at $990m. I think it should be able to average better than this, particularly with MLK 2 weeks after that, Presidents Day 4 weeks later and a pretty empty marketplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
