Wednesday The Force Awakens Estimates - 28M (Rth) | 27.2 - 27.9 (DHD)

[terrestrial]

Deadline Hollywood ‏@Deadline

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[nickitaly]

628

22

35

36

21.6= 92.6

742.6

Avatar falls by Thursday. 

I don't believe that...

Sunday softer than thursday???

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[Rthmessiah]

Lots wine mixed with spirits 

[solaris]

39 minutes ago, Heretic said:

 

Not surprised to see BFI IMAX at the top worldwide. It's sold out literally every single showtime since the day it opened, and continues to do so.

 

And the tickets are sickeningly expensive too.

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, Rth said:

Lots wine mixed with spirits 

 

AUS in timezone already in 2016 or e.g. ~ max 2h before like Perth?

 

(already congrats or waiting?)

Edited December 31, 2015 by terrestrial

[baumer]

41 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$46M for a $30M picture that was very bleak and had stars that aren't box office draws is nothing to sneeze at.

 

Nothing to sneeze at i agree.

 

Did well? Uhhhh No.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

 

Nothing to sneeze at i agree.

 

Did well? Uhhhh No.

We'll have to agree to disagree then.

[tidbit]

So, we expect TFA to be at least ~740M by the end of it's 3rd weekend.

Avengers made $166M after it's 3rd weekend (or 26.6% of it's final)

Jurassic World made $152M after it's 3rd weekend (23.3%)
Dark Knight made $137M after it's 3rd weekend (25.8%)

 

This movie is walking that thin line in the comparison with those movies and so much depends on what January legs it has (including this weekend).  I'm quite sure 950M is the floor for this movie as I wouldn't say the legs of the above movies were particularly great.

 

[RamblinRed]

I have TFA finishes just a little short of $1B, but it wouldn't take much to change that (less than $15M short by end of March in my model). 

I'm using an approach that gives a similar need to what the Avatar+32 crowd has been saying.

I'm looking at cumulative difference and what it needs to cross by end of March (if it is going to get to 1B it will get there by then - even Avatar had pretty much petered out by then making only $5M in April and less than $4M the next almost 4 months after that). Avatar's initial run made $749 with $741 coming by March. Actually it's holds after Jan are pretty typical blockbuster type holds. Jan was the month that made Avatar.

 

So Looking at cumulative difference, TFA needs to make 258.6 more than Avatar through March to get to $1B. It is currently just under $360M ahead of Avatar as of Wednesday. So it needs to hold 259 of the 360 to get to $1B. That's a 72% hold. I do expect TFA to outgross Avatar through the weekend which will give it a little larger pot to work with. By Sunday I am projecting it will need to hold about 67% of Avatars remaining run to hit $1B - which is right in line with the Avatar +32 crowd. 

 

I have it falling just slightly more than that. But at this point small changes can have big effects. The $4M difference between est and actual last weekend changed the final number through March by over $50M (the power of compounding over time) and sent the model from predicting over $1B to less than $1B.

[solaris]

27 minutes ago, Rth said:

Lots wine mixed with spirits 

Happy Aussie New Year o Lord above

[smerfy01]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Malick and Taratino but no Cameron, what do you measure a director by? What makes a directer better than another. I'm struggling to think of anything Tarantino is better than Jim at.

Considering I think Cameron's best work is T1 and the rest of his filmography is a slide down from that point, it's pretty easy to deduce what Tarantino is better than Cameron at.

Experimentation within a frame, varying pacing, complex framing, use of palettes within the frame, emphasis on conservative cutting, a bunch of things Tarantino does that set him apart from a great many directors working today.

Cameron is a serviceable director that has an eye for what stories will work for him and he doesn't get in his own way when creating what he wants. That's about it.

[IronJimbo]

25 minutes ago, tidbit said:

So, we expect TFA to be at least ~740M by the end of it's 3rd weekend.

Avengers made $166M after it's 3rd weekend (or 26.6% of it's final)

Jurassic World made $152M after it's 3rd weekend (23.3%)
Dark Knight made $137M after it's 3rd weekend (25.8%)

 

This movie is walking that thin line in the comparison with those movies and so much depends on what January legs it has (including this weekend).  I'm quite sure 950M is the floor for this movie as I wouldn't say the legs of the above movies were particularly great.

 

 

If we use 740M by the end of the 3rd weekend and say it made 30% after it's 3rd weekend. That will give a total of 1.07b

[POTUS 2020]

There were a number of people last monday wondering if SW7 could beat JWs  26m and hoping it could be over 30m. Here we are 7 weekdays later at 28m and some are nervous. Just a slow burn off happening. 

Euphoria last wed with anticipation of a 160m-180m weekend and 1.2b. Now much sub 100m and even sub 90m talk with 900m tot

100m+ happening and so is 1B.

Get ready to be happy on fri-sat and let the euphoria kick back in.  

[Jawa]

Yeah, I don't see how this misses $1B. The weekdays are just too good.

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, smerfy01 said:

ConsideringJohnnk Cameron's best work is T1 an d the rest ofunderstandsraphy is a slide down from that  point, it's pretty easy to deduce what Tarantino is better than Cameron at.

Experimentation within a frame, varying pacing, complex framing, use of palettes within the frame, emphasis on conservative cutting, a bunch of things Tarantino does that set him apart from a great many directors working today.

Cameron is a serviceable director that has an eye for what stories will work for him and he doesn't get in his own way when creating what he wants. That's about it.

Cameron is a serviceable director just like Hohn Williams is a decent composer and Robert Frost was ok with words and Meryl Streep kind of understanda the acting craft. 

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

Avatar won't fall any later than the end of Tuesday. First, I don't think the weekend will be below $100M, or not much below anyway. Second, if this mid-week is, say, $110M, which is about right, next week will dive because of the holidays ending but should still be good for $40M total, or about $10M per day. Worst case scenario as you note is $740M by the end of the weekend, which is $760M by the end of Tuesday. There's some small chance it stands at something silly like $759M by the end of Tuesday though I'd say it's unlikely. 

 

As for The Revenant, it's a good movie. It's not a great movie. That's probably even worse coming from me because I'm a complete sucker for revenge films. They are one of my favorite movie types because they're SO easy to get emotionally invested in. I love the good ones (Gladiator, Braveheart) and even the more mediocre ones (Payback, The Punisher, etc.), just because they're fun to watch. I love The Count of Monte Cristo (2002) and saw it 3 times in theaters, and most people don't seem to think much of that film; I thought it was great. So for me, The Revenant was a bit disappointing. Still a good movie, though, worth seeing, just probably not a big crowd pleaser. 

 

What I can't believe is they let him spend $135M on that movie. It's probably one of the worst examples in cinema history of dollars spent to quality of the filmmaking. It looks like maybe a $50M movie unless they paid Leo $100 million. For god's sake, JURASSIC WORLD cost $150 million! Think about that. They built huge sets for the film, there is tons of CG, the movie looks absolutely amazing, and it cost just a few million more than The Revenant?! Yikes, who embezzled money from that production? There's just no excuse. Bridge of Spies apparently cost like $40 million and it looks at least as good as The Revenant. I'm just so confused by that budget number.

Spielberg and hanks were backend and Leo took up front dough. Yes. Still too high

[RamblinRed]

As I have said before I am trying a model that blends Avatar and Sherlock. I don't expect it to hold like Avatar, but I think it can at least have slightly better than Sherlock's holds.

After Jan Avatar starts to behave like a slightly better than avg winter hit, Jan is really the month that made Avatar (it made over 300M in Jan, both its Feb over Jan and Mar over Feb drops were around 65% and its Apr over Mar drop was about 85%). 

 

So for this weekend based on a 27.5 Wed I have

20.4 Thur (-26 - I have it take a big hit today due to college football playoffs being tonight. This is the first time that is the case, so I gave it closer to a X Eve drop than typical NYE drops)

34.8 Fri (+70)

34.6 Sat (-1)

20.5 Sun (-41 - I hit it hard on Sunday as well - basically split Avatar and SH)

That would put it at 738.7 after Sunday with an 89.9 weekend. 

 

I also assumed SH Monday drop of 60% for an 8.2 Monday. 

Pretty conservative overall. If I have been too conservative today then the weekend numbers are low. 

currently the model has it passing Avatar first run DOM (749) on Tues and Avatar total DOM (760) on Wed. Passing Avatar adjusted on Mon 1/11.

I don't expect to have a strong sense on $1B until MLK day- we simply have to wait to see what kind of post holiday legs it has.

it has burnt alot of demand but I don't think it has burned through all of it yet. I'm seeing it for the 2nd time on Saturday and 75% of the co-workers and spouses I am going with have not seen it yet.

I don't expect TFA's numbers to drop off a cliff, that usually only happens to movies with bad WOM, which doesn't apply here. I'd expect a pretty typical degrade after this weekend, but not something precipitous.

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Euphoria last wed with anticipation of a 160m-180m weekend and 1.2b. Now much sub 100m and even sub 90m talk with 900m...

As far as I looked at the names my impression was that the $160m... ideas were either by newbes or by fun-making or by poking in a negative way people

Now is not correct, as also last week some people already said both, sub $100m and sub $90m as apossibility too.

Maybe taking a bit more into consideration that nothing out of the future is written in stone?

Accept people for staying conservative out of their POV?

[smerfy01]

16 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

Cameron is a serviceable director just like Hohn Williams is a decent composer and Robert Frost was ok with words and Meryl Streep kind of understanda the acting craft. 

 

LOL

No. James Cameron is the James Newton Howard of directors. He's good enough for praise, but is never at the forefront in his field.

[The Panda]

Can you no longer insert videos into posts?