XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just now, GiantCALBears said: You could absolutely be correct, this discussion started because someone mentioned it would take 30 years. Yea that's way too long. With the popularity of PLF screens and inflation alone, in 30 years you'll need to sell half as many tickets as TFA will to get the same number it will end up at. If TFA crosses 100 million tickets sold, it will be interesting to see how long it takes for another movie to do it. Titanic did it last and that was 18 years ago. This very well could be the last domestic movie to do 100 million (seeing as how admissions are going down slowly every year). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am 99.8% sure it will not be Avatar 2, in fact I'd put $ on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 SW was the first smash hit of its type in 1977, there was nothing like it before it. It only makes sense for the first good SW movie in 30 years to smash every record in its path again. Its like poetry, it rhymes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: I am 99.8% sure it will not be Avatar 2, in fact I'd put $ on it. because the second Star Wars beat it already? Or are you trying to say you think Avatar 2 will make less than 1.5b DOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just now, IronJimbo said: because the second Star Wars beat it already? Or are you trying to say you think Avatar 2 will make less than 1.5b DOM? I think there is a very good chance it fails to beat Avatar 1 domestic. It was THE 3D event of the century so far. That's an insane amount of hype for even Cameron to have to top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: Yea that's way too long. With the popularity of PLF screens and inflation alone, in 30 years you'll need to sell half as many tickets as TFA will to get the same number it will end up at. If TFA crosses 100 million tickets sold, it will be interesting to see how long it takes for another movie to do it. Titanic did it last and that was 18 years ago. This very well could be the last domestic movie to do 100 million (seeing as how admissions are going down slowly every year). Would it cross 100M admissions with $950M domestic? Clearly the 2015 average ticket price on Mojo is not going to be TFA's average given the fact that IMAX will at least contribute $100M of that gross with a 40-50% ticket markup average on each admission. Ditto for the $60M or so coming from other PLF screens, and the $250M from regular 3D showings (though obviously the markup there isn't as severe) assuming those early breakdowns hold fairly constant. Edited January 2, 2016 by kswiston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just now, GiantCALBears said: I think there is a very good chance it fails to beat Avatar 1 domestic. It was THE 3D event of the century so far. That's an insane amount of hype for even Cameron to have to top. It was a re-introduction to 3D. In the last 8 years what has there been? Only really Gravity did the 3d properly (used Jim's Cameras). Avatar 2 will be a re-re-introduction to 3D and will have even more impressive CGI than the first. Half the audience will break into cold sweat because it feels like Neytiri is actually in the same room as them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 18 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: Yea that's way too long. With the popularity of PLF screens and inflation alone, in 30 years you'll need to sell half as many tickets as TFA will to get the same number it will end up at. If TFA crosses 100 million tickets sold, it will be interesting to see how long it takes for another movie to do it. Titanic did it last and that was 18 years ago. This very well could be the last domestic movie to do 100 million (seeing as how admissions are going down slowly every year). I think it is proved to us that only another SW can do it. Since 2000, we have different type of challengers, such as franchises with massive fanbse like TDK, TA1 and JW, or original movie with couldn't-be-better-WOM such as Avatar, and they all failed. And now we all see what it takes to break or even come close to 100m in admissions in this excessive entertainment, digital, internet era : 1) the biggest fanbase of alltime 2) the hype built from a long wait 3) incredible marketing 4) couldn't-be-better-WOM. Now, it's easy to see that 2, 3, 4 are sth you could try really hard to achive, but 1 is not. You have to be SW to have the biggest fanbase of alltime, and thats why I think only another SW could be in the 100m-tickets talk. Edited January 2, 2016 by vc2002 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, kswiston said: Would it cross 100M admissions with $950M domestic? Clearly the 2015 average ticket price on Mojo is not going to be TFA's average given the fact that IMAX will at least contribute $100M of that gross with a 40-50% ticket markup average on each admission. Ditto for the $60M or so coming from other PLF screens, and the $250M from regular 3D showings (though obviously the markup there isn't as severe) assuming those early breakdowns hold fairly constant. I'm figuring $10.50 a ticket for the entirety of it's run, so it will need $1.05 billion to get to 100 million sold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: I'm figuring $10.50 a ticket for the entirety of it's run, so it will need $1.05 billion to get to 100 million sold. Nah, 3D sales will go down plus PLF screen numbers will go down as well. 950M+ should get it 100M admissions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 37 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said: True but very few thought SW7 could beat Avatar much less beat it by 30M+ admissions. Inflation might help someone beat SW7's domestic gross but the 100M+ admissions isn't going to be easy. @VenomXXR and @druv10 Maul - wouldn't it need over $1 billion domestic to get to 100m admissions? Edited January 2, 2016 by lilmac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said: Nah, 3D sales will go down plus PLF screen numbers will go down as well. 950M+ should get it 100M admissions. At $950M, it will be pretty close. I hope it gets 1B, so that there will be no doubts regarding 100M admissions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said: Nah, 3D sales will go down plus PLF screen numbers will go down as well. 950M+ should get it 100M admissions. I'm not so sure. Yes they will go down, but when they do most of it's money will have been made. I believe Deadline (or one of the other trades) said last week that ticket prices where averaging over $13. It has a 4 week hold on all IMAX screens, and nothing else will be pulling in 3D screens for most of it's run. I don't think it's average ticket price will fall that far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) Morning showings generally sell well at AMCs due to the really cheap tickets, but my Sunday 10:30 AM TFA showing is almost sold out. Edited January 2, 2016 by Jayhawk the Hutt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said: Nah, 3D sales will go down plus PLF screen numbers will go down as well. 950M+ should get it 100M admissions. I doubt it will change all that much. IMAX is still selling out shows. TFA will be done 85-90% of its run before it loses IMAX on Jan 14th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 My number 1 movie of 2015 has been revealed!!! http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20846-cjohns-top-10-best-of-2015-the-os-edition/?page=5#comment-2336167 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, lilmac said: @VenomXXR and @druv10 Maul - wouldn't it need over $1 billion domestic to get to 100m admissions? My estimation is $10.50 per ticket through it's run, so I believe it needs to get to $1.05 billion to assure 100 million. More than 10% of it's BO will be from IMAX (avg. ticket $16). Another 35-40% will come from 3D (avg. ticket $12). Let's say another 10% from other PLF's ($12 a ticket) and the rest from regular showings, matinees, etc ($8 a ticket). At $1 billion using those ticket prices we're at about 97 million admissions. I could be off of course, these are just analytical numbers based on data and averages. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: I'm not so sure. Yes they will go down, but when they do most of it's money will have been made. I believe Deadline (or one of the other trades) said last week that ticket prices where averaging over $13. It has a 4 week hold on all IMAX screens, and nothing else will be pulling in 3D screens for most of it's run. I don't think it's average ticket price will fall that far. I'm not sure where you're getting $13 average per ticket. On OW average should be around 10-11 dollars not 13 and that number will only go down during rest of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 $1B would likely mean 100m tickets. Close enough to round up anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) I'm just assuming an average of $10/ticket. Easy to remember and close enough to the real average ticket price. Edited January 2, 2016 by Jayhawk the Hutt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
