Jim Shorts Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Waiting for that $65m 4th weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spazz91 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 17 minutes ago, #ED said: No OS Actual? those usually take longer to report than domestic 6 minutes ago, VGPOP said: $42.9 million weekend (-47.5% drop) That would be a 52.5% drop. I see it doing closer to ~$48 million (46.8% drop) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No 3D splits yet, but we got an IMAX gross through 17 days of ~98M which is 13%. RealD 3D share can't have fallen as low as 20% yet, it would have had to collapse to ~16% outside of the OW in order to be at 20% for the full 17 days, and that doesn't make sense given that 3D share decline is typically more gradual. It should be sitting in the low 20s outside of OW, so overall I'm guessing roughly 25% (hopefully we get an update from BOM/DHD/Gitesh after it passes Avatar's gross this week). Through 17 days, it's sitting at ~72M tickets (record). It'll pass TDK's admissions (73.5M) on Tuesday and Avatar's admissions (75-76M) by Thursday or Friday. TPM will fall sometime next week (again, depends on the 3D share) and then its the march to 100M tickets. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, DeeCee said: Did actuals over Christmas change at all for TFA? and the old estimates, as far as they changed since the Thursday release of numbers = 1 post under that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 (edited) 6 minutes ago, spizzer said: No 3D splits yet, but we got an IMAX gross through 17 days of ~98M which is 13%. RealD 3D share can't have fallen as low as 20% yet, it would have had to collapse to ~16% outside of the OW in order to be at 20% for the full 17 days, and that doesn't make sense given that 3D share decline is typically more gradual. It should be sitting in the low 20s outside of OW, so overall I'm guessing roughly 25% (hopefully we get an update from BOM/DHD/Gitesh after it passes Avatar's gross this week). Through 17 days, it's sitting at ~72M tickets (record). It'll pass TDK's admissions (73.5M) on Tuesday and Avatar's admissions (75-76M) by Thursday or Friday. TPM will fall sometime next week (again, depends on the 3D share) and then its the march to 100M tickets. shouldn't IMAX ticket count twice as much as a 2D ticket. They cost 2X as much and show people are willing to pay more to see this particular movie, but yet when you just go by a simple tickets sold you strip away one thing that set this movie apart. People are willing to pay more to see it. This is why simple ticket counts as dumb. Edited January 4, 2016 by tokila 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 minute ago, tokila said: shouldn't IMAX ticket count twice as much as a 2D ticket. They cost 2X as much... They don't, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spazz91 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, tokila said: shouldn't IMAX ticket count twice as much as a 2D ticket. They cost 2X as much and show people are willing to pay more to see this particular movie, but yet when you just go by a simple tickets sold you strip away one thing that set this movie apart. People are willing to pay more to see it. This is why simple ticket counts as dumb. If IMAX existed back in the 70s and 80s then those movies would have gotten a monetary boost as well. This is trying to compensate for that to an as close to apples-to-apples comparison. Nothing will be perfect though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punishment Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 TTT Legs = $976m ROTK Legs = $1.002b FOTR Legs = $1.08b 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Telemachos said: They don't, though. yes I know. That is why I said it should. And it just shows how flawed going by tickets sold is. Does not accurately show one movies relative success to another. Crappy iOS videogame sells 50 million at 99 cents a pop. AAA video game sells 10 million at 60 dollars a pop. Clearly one is better than the other, but it would like arguing the one did better because it sold more. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 minute ago, tokila said: yes I know. That is why I said it should. And it just shows how flawed going by tickets sold is. Does not accurately show one movies relative success to another. Crappy iOS videogame sells 50 million at 99 cents a pop. AAA video game sells 10 million at 60 dollars a pop. Clearly one is better than the other, but it would like arguing the one did better because it sold more. Except that isn't clear at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spazz91 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Which one is better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubes Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 (edited) 5 minutes ago, tokila said: yes I know. That is why I said it should. And it just shows how flawed going by tickets sold is. Does not accurately show one movies relative success to another. Crappy iOS videogame sells 50 million at 99 cents a pop. AAA video game sells 10 million at 60 dollars a pop. Clearly one is better than the other, but it would like arguing the one did better because it sold more. That's what dollar amounts are for. That's when you follow the march to $1 billion instead of the march to 100 million tickets. Then you go into production budgets and hey, that free to play game can afford Arnold Schwarzenegger in it's commercials that air in prime time. What kind of in app revenue could support such a massive ad budget? And so on and so on. Edited January 4, 2016 by Tubes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, tokila said: shouldn't IMAX ticket count twice as much as a 2D ticket. They cost 2X as much and show people are willing to pay more to see this particular movie, but yet when you just go by a simple tickets sold you strip away one thing that set this movie apart. People are willing to pay more to see it. This is why simple ticket counts as dumb. Ticket counts shouldn't be seen as anything beyond literally ticket counts. Coming to conclusions such as performance of Film X > Film Y because X admissions > Y admissions is on the individual, not on the film. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognitoo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Daxtreme said: They're not "new estimates" anymore though. These are actuals. All the better Dax, all the better. Mojo had/has them still marked as estimates though, that's why I used the respective term. I knew I'd better put them in quotation marks. Oh, well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 (edited) 16 minutes ago, spazz91 said: If IMAX existed back in the 70s and 80s then those movies would have gotten a monetary boost as well. This is trying to compensate for that to an as close to apples-to-apples comparison. Nothing will be perfect though. you can't penalize newer movies for technological advance. The same way you cant penalize old movies because of the advantages they had (less competition at box office, no digital steaming, less piracy, no VCRs, etc and etc). using ticket sales as the only criteria removes all the advantages modern movies do have, and and highlights the advantages older movies did have. I think best example of a movie that breaks the whole ticket sales method. 10 Commandments. It made 56 million in 1956 which magically adjust is you use the ticket price method to 1.1 billion. 56 million dollars adjust to 488 million in 2015(based on CPI). CLEARLY tickets were much cheaper than the market price for that movie. Maybe since it was a Bible movie they made it cheaper or churches got discounts for their congregations to go see it. I don't know why. But the amount of money it made in 1956 compared to the amount of tickets it sold does not line up at all. It is just completely wrong to have have movie as number 6 all time. TDK is a more successful movie by a large measure compared to 10 Commandment going by adjusting gross by inflation instead of ticket sales by the increases in ticket price. Edited January 4, 2016 by tokila 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthOpeningGross Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Not to get too offtrack, but I don't see how Rogue One isn't the biggest 2016 domestic grosser. At this point, it looks the Star Wars name alone might be good for an instant $500M gross in that December time frame, unless the reviews are abysmal. I don't see Finding Dory going north of $400M (as great as Pixar films are, they is a still a certain segment of the audience that will see them as "kids' films"), nor do I see Batman v. Superman being massive. What other 2016 movies stands a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, DarthOpeningGross said: Not to get too offtrack, but I don't see how Rogue One isn't the biggest 2016 domestic grosser. At this point, it looks the Star Wars name alone might be good for an instant $500M gross in that December time frame, unless the reviews are abysmal. I don't see Finding Dory going north of $400M (as great as Pixar films are, they is a still a certain segment of the audience that will see them as "kids' films"), nor do I see Batman v. Superman being massive. What other 2016 movies stands a chance? I don't see Batman v. Superman making over 450m. 400m if it is a real good film. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, incognitoo said: All the better Dax, all the better. Mojo had/has them still marked as estimates though, that's why I used the respective term. I knew I'd better put them in quotation marks. Oh, well. have a lot of fun here (bin auch aus Deutschland) Did you realise there is also an International area here within the forum? Only in case you are interested and didn't know: there is even a German / Austrian thread there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1stpierre Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice! It went up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognitoo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 hour ago, terrestrial said: AS still holds the record for 4th weekend, as the ~ $89 happened at the 4th weekend... if you can count it as that, due to the starting out as a small release Not wanting to belittle one of Eastwood's finest, but I think I'll roll with @Daxtreme 's opinion here. ;o) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
