Weekend Actuals: The Force Awakens - 90.2M !!!

[Elessar]

21 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

 

no you are just doing nuanced trolling butthurt because avatar is going to be overtaken

 

He made a reasonable prediction and you turn it into TFA vs Avatar crap. Get out of here!

[terrestrial]

15 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

But avatar is toast. this record is not getting touched for the next 9-10 years. opening weekend will but not total DOM. Avatar is the cousin no one wanted in the family album and now is being carved out by TFA

That are the kind of IMHO provoking formulations a lot here could live without. No need for more poking IMHO

 

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

What other movies other than ROTK and Avatar opened on the 18th DEC? I know Titanic did but it's too old to compare.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&p=.htm

release dates = last column. Look also for 17 December... = has the same kind of ~ weeks in release. Be aware about previews in other years having less of an impact on OW and as such drop patterns will likley be other ones. And a lot of other details, why even movies under 10y back are not 100% compareable to today.

[Caladbolg]

21 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

What other movies other than ROTK and Avatar opened on the 18th DEC? I know Titanic did but it's too old to compare.

RotK opened on a Wednesday   as did the rest of the LOTR films. Go back to 1998 to find another year where Christmas and New Year's were on Fridays, You've Got Mail and Prince of Egypt were the 2 new releases for that Dec 18-20th frame, different era for movies though. Still there are some similarities in drops then, 2009(the other year),  and now.

 

  There are several other movies that opened a week or so before Christmas but since the days don't line up the comparisons can be off.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Caladbolg

[mepal1]

It really is difficult to gauge what the final Domestic gross of SWTFA will be, but it will certainly end up at a massive total regardless.

Can the film reach $1 bill, umm, it seems to do that there would have to be a lot of repeat business, as surely by now the people who would of wanted to of seen this film would of done so by now, over the holiday period.

From next weekend on i can see the theatre counts dropping, and as newer films come into the cinemas, interest for SW will wain, together with the fact that kids are back to school, and parents are back to work.

Interestingly, even if SWTFA does reach the billion mark, it will still be some way behind the original SW film, and several other blockbusters of past years, in adjusted figures.

 

No doubt that SWTFA will hold the domestic unadjusted total for years, as even the newer SW films will not have the hype to generate such business, e.g. see previous figures for the earlier trilogies. I just hope that as stories the new SW films to come, explain the multitude of plot holes in TFA.

[rustyspoons89]

16 minutes ago, misterchief81 said:

Would have been fun to see it hit 100+ mil this weekend, but it's still passing 700 today in 16 days. Something that only Avatar had done, and it took that film 72 days. And it will pass 750 in 18 days, 800 mil in 23 days, and be closing in on 900 mil in its first month of release. What an incredible run TFA is having. 

I'm glad you pointed this out. I think we are all a little blinded by the size of these numbers the last 2 week... People are focusing on what it's not doing... Instead of what it is doing. 700M in 16 days should be celebrated! That's a record that likely won't be beaten in decades to come.  

 

Im not saying everything has to be butterflies and rainbows and "wow" for every single day... But this is history in the making, let's not forget that! 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by rustyspoons89

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

release dates = last column. Look also for 17 December... = has the same kind of ~ weeks in release. Be aware about previews in other years having less of an impact on OW and as such drop patterns will likley be other ones. And a lot of other details, why even movies under 10y back are not 100% compareable to today.

 

35% Sunday drop followed by 65% Monday drop seems to be about the average, too tired to make a table.

[RyneOh1040]

Can anyone else tell me if this is happening to them....everytime i press a page number i get a 'loading...' message that never goes away.  I have to copy and past the link into my browser to get the page to load.  It started happening two days ago and hasn't quit since.  Am i alone in this.

[terrestrial]

21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If this gets 23M tomorrow and holds like Avatar we're looking at a 10.7M Monday.

if the calculation model someone developed Druv????) based on Avatar +32% (or was it + 30%?) still holds, then it might be right ($10.6m), but I think an under $10m is maybe more likely

The Avatar based calculation model might be a tad better suited one, as the weekday count in relation to NYD matches a bit better than LotR 2 count. LotR 2 had a Wednesday as New Year Day, Avatar is a match to SW 7.

 

[baumer]

I think it will drop to about 8.5 mill on monday.

i also think its getting a best picture nomination. Cant ignore the box office.

i also think it will reach a billion....but just barely like Titanic barely hot 600

[bamajagala]

If this gets 23M tomorrow and holds like Avatar we're looking at a 10.7M Monday.

The last few posts are really underestimating the monday #. 7.5? Really. I know its gonna fall big but not near 70%. We'll see. I hope sunday is more like 23+.

Sent from my SCH-I925 using Tapatalk

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, RyneOh1040 said:

Can anyone else tell me if this is happening to them....everytime i press a page number i get a 'loading...' message that never goes away.  I have to copy and past the link into my browser to get the page to load.  It started happening two days ago and hasn't quit since.  Am i alone in this.

Refresh is king...

A lot of people have problems. For me it helps to change the background, some things work only with one background, some not. E.g. I can not edit my posts whilst using BOT Chameleon, but Chameleon helps with other little details.

Mods told to open a support ticket. What doesn't work for me, might have to do too with the background too = PMed

If I start to write a new post too fast the window to write in opens often not at all (not speaking about the build in delay in posting speed)

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

if the calculation model someone developed Druv????) based on Avatar +32% (or was it + 30%?) still holds, then it might be right ($10.6m), but I think an under $10m is maybe more likely

The Avatar based calculation model might be a tad better suited one, as the weekday count in relation to NYD matches a bit better than LotR 2 count. LotR 2 had a Wednesday as New Year Day, Avatar is a match to SW 7.

 

 

If it follows Avatar's percentage drops it will reach 1.3bil

[kswiston]

If Rth's estimates are correct, we're getting $92-93M for the weekend at best. A 40% drop on Sunday gives you $91M.

 

That said, I think these predictions of $50M next weekend are crazy optimistic. $91M would be a 39% drop and that's with an inflated holiday Friday. We aren't going to get a 45% drop next weekend with a regular winter Friday. I think that $41-45M next weekend is much more likely given what we have seen this past week. 

[mikeymichael]

I feel like TFA's entire run has had the 1B monkey on its back. Once the expectation shifted from merely beating Avatar to the 1B milestone, the nature of everybody's reaction to the last two weeks of numbers has been a lot less celebratory and more disappointed in nature than it frickin should be. I'm guilty of this myself. Inevitable, I guess.

[Ozymandias]

950m looks locked, good enough for me.  1 billion depends on late holds.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Ozymandias

[terrestrial]

50 minutes ago, Biph Shmata said:

I think there is a good chance Disney will buy $50 million in tickets to give to orphans to get it over $1 billion, they haven't shown much interest in fudging numbers for milestones, but that's one i'm sure they want.

 

Could you please stop using 'fudging'... It VERY rarely happens, in recent years probably ONCE. And never for the end-result.

 

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

If it follows Avatar's percentage drops it will reach 1.3bil

Arrgh, the Avatar calculation model has nothing to do with drop percentages, SW 7 does not follow Avatar's percentages...

[GiantCALBears]

Very nice Saturday #, $91.5m weekend seems about right. Sad the holidays are ending, you only get so long to savor the history you are the midst of. 

[Bonenash]

just saw Serenity on netflix god was soo good liked the atmosphere the dialogue the action and the fx for a 39m dollars film the fx are dam good

When all the money is spend corectly you have a movie called Serenity.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

 

Could you please stop using 'fudging'... It VERY rarely happens, in recent years probably ONCE. And never for the end-result.

 

Arrgh, the Avatar calculation model has nothing to do with drop percentages, SW 7 does not follow Avatar's percentages...

 

Hows the model

[druv10]

Avatar+32% is up to 279.8M, tomorrow could potentially fall below that pace. It needs 22.95M.