LinksterAC Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 6 hours ago, Baumer Fett said: Going to my sixth showing at 11pm tonight....imax. Hoping its not too busy. This will be my third time seeing it alone. I have enjoyed seeing it alone more than seeing it with friends and family simply because I just like to take it all in all by myself it's almost like a higher state of consciousness lol. Try it drunk. I'm not joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted January 4, 2016 Community Manager Share Posted January 4, 2016 I just posted a 2015 financial report in the Premium/Gold member special forum. Be sure to check it out if you are a Premium/Gold member! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: 90-91 is great. Though I have to admit last weekend at this time I thought Avatar would be gone today. Not like there's anything to complain about obviously. Crazy that this is the 6th SW film to win its year. Stupid AotC AOTC ruins everything. How typical! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthOpeningGross Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Darth Water Bottle said: "Hey guys. Now that Star Wars has broken records in the summer and in January and now in December, I think it means that the only way Star Wars will have an amazing huge gross is if it releases in December." Thank you for recognizing the rampant post hoc ergo propter reasoning going on regarding the relationship between the December release date and Star Wars TFA's box office. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc Outliers don't establish the general rule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueLeader Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I hope to HOLY HELL the weekend is AT LEAST 90 million. If the film isn't getting to 100 million, AT LEAST hit 90 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It just needs to be above AS and I'm cool. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasanahmad Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 First weekend - weekend estimate underpredicted Second weekend - weekend estimate overpredicted Third weekend - weekend estimate underpredicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 (edited) 40 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: I think if SW8 does move and nothing's put in its place, Wonder Woman takes the 2017 Memorial Day opening. Actually, I wonder if Disney's waiting to see whether Avatar 2 is going to happen in time for 2017 or not. It's not a question about which film is going to end up bigger, but rather that the box office potential for both is so large that neither studio wants to try a heads up fight. If mid-December is so valuable and Avatar does end up being ready, but Disney really wants to keep the date, the shifting between the two will be mighty interesting. Right now it feels like SW Saga films have the prime pick, but Avatar can probably push aside any SW Story films if Fox is really keen. Perhaps we see something where the Saga and Avatar films alternate years (SW '17, Av '18, and so forth.) With the Story films getting the traditional Memorial Day slot? Hmm... that could be the best possible answer for Disney. If they really want the 40th anniversary tie in, but want SW8 to get the prime December, they could delay Rogue One from December until May. They could even play it up as directly before ANH, to really pull that anniversary feel in. (Moreso if it's the return of Darth Vader.) I could see Disney moving either Beauty and the Beast or Pirates to Memorial Day but I think if they don't, WB will move Wonder Woman to May although TBH I think WW will move anyway since it's sandwiched between Cars 3 and DM3. I could also see it moving to a Spring slot either March 24th or March 31st Edited January 4, 2016 by Jonwo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueLeader Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Baumer Fett said: TFA will release a special edition with 20 minutes of new footage. OW: 50 million That is what they need to do! I've been saying this for days now! They'd be dumb not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Rth said: Sun could end up 21.2-22.2m, see how weekend actuals end up I knew that estimate seemed way too low. My $91-$91.5m predict looks very possible now. Nice going TFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthWalker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I think January 2016 will come close to 2010's record. But February looks dead. Like this [/quote] One word Deadpool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I love what Rth wrote, frankly anything over $90M always sounded good to me. I wasn't sure how to predict this weekend. I admit I felt it would be closer to $100M, though not over, and felt like upper 90s was the number. That does NOT mean I'm disappointed, though, as my range was 90-100. Plus, as usual, the mid-week was well better than I expected. My range for mid-week plus weekend was 180-220 with a preference for around 190, so the mid-week coming in that strong and a total last 7 days of around $200M seems really good to me. Definitely above what I expected, frankly. It just came more during the week than the weekend. I know one or two people said it, but am I crazy for thinking it's entirely possible next weekend is NOT some huge drop because the mid-week totals are going to be a huge drop and push some demand to the weekend? I'm not saying it's falling 30% next weekend, I'm just saying I can see another 40% decline instead of some people thinking 50-55%. I can see 40%. I was also curious since I don't know where else on the Internet you can ask this question, but is there any very serious journal article or in depth look or even book about Gone With the Wind's domestic grosses, releases, or the history of #1 films at the box office? I just ask because I'm a bit curious how they come up with the domestic adjusted grosses and how accurate they are. I read that the first year of release was mostly road shows charging $1 per pop, even though my dad was born in 1942 and both him and his friend said they watched double features as a kid for 25 cents each. $1 in 1939 was WELL above average, even worse than an IMAX screening today. I was just curious how "sure" everyone is about the exact adjusted total of GWTW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 22 minutes ago, Jonwo said: I could see Disney moving either Beauty and the Beast or Pirates to Memorial Day but I think if they don't, WB will move Wonder Woman to May although TBH I think WW will move anyway since it's sandwiched between Cars 3 and DM3. I could also see it moving to a Spring slot either March 24th or March 31st I feel like Disney isn't going to try May again for POTC. Beauty and the Beast could work, but I think it depends on how straight it plays the story. If it's a twist, a la Maleficent, it could work, but if it's just an adaptation like Cinderella, they'll leave it where it is. I don't think WW is specifically going to care about either Cars 3 (which may only do TGD numbers) or DM3. They're more likely to cannibalize each other than hurt it. Honestly, I'm not sure why people keep saying that WW has to move. The release date it has is fine, and there's potential (after BvS) that it becomes the film that others try to avoid. However, even in such a case, if Memorial Day is open, WB would probably try to take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueLeader Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I can see a 40% drop, that is reasonable. Although it seems many of us have been motivated by wishful thinking too often. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 37 minutes ago, Darth Water Bottle said: I just posted a 2015 financial report in the Premium/Gold member special forum. Be sure to check it out if you are a Premium/Gold member! Question, if I want to upgrade to Premium over silver, would I pay 2 extra now, or wait until I am scheduled to pay next to switch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted January 4, 2016 Community Manager Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 minute ago, The Panda Menace said: Question, if I want to upgrade to Premium over silver, would I pay 2 extra now, or wait until I am scheduled to pay next to switch? You should be able to upgrade for $2. I'm not sure how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 1 minute ago, JonathanLB said: I know one or two people said it, but am I crazy for thinking it's entirely possible next weekend is NOT some huge drop because the mid-week totals are going to be a huge drop and push some demand to the weekend? I'm not saying it's falling 30% next weekend, I'm just saying I can see another 40% decline instead of some people thinking 50-55%. I can see 40%. Yeah... it's a family movie so the weekdays will drop hard and next weekend should be decent. 40-45% Both Narnia and National Treasure... the 2 biggest family movies I found... were in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedieb Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: 90-91 is great. Though I have to admit last weekend at this time I thought Avatar would be gone today. Not like there's anything to complain about obviously. Crazy that this is the 6th SW film to win its year. Stupid AotC AOTC ruins everything. How typical! It's like sand, it gets into everything. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: I feel like Disney isn't going to try May again for POTC. Beauty and the Beast could work, but I think it depends on how straight it plays the story. If it's a twist, a la Maleficent, it could work, but if it's just an adaptation like Cinderella, they'll leave it where it is. I don't think WW is specifically going to care about either Cars 3 (which may only do TGD numbers) or DM3. They're more likely to cannibalize each other than hurt it. Honestly, I'm not sure why people keep saying that WW has to move. The release date it has is fine, and there's potential (after BvS) that it becomes the film that others try to avoid. However, even in such a case, if Memorial Day is open, WB would probably try to take it. BATB is a musical like the original but with some new songs. I think it's 50/50 since the March slot works for Disney. I think WW would benefit from a Spring slot since it'll be less heavy compared to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonwo said: BATB is a musical like the original but with some new songs. I think it's 50/50 since the March slot works for Disney. I think WW would benefit from a Spring slot since it'll be less heavy compared to summer. I guess I just don't see any intrinsic weakness in WW compared to other films in the summer. What's the concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
