Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Blankments

2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)

Recommended Posts

2015 horribly failed at this, but can 2016 take 2013's record? Only time will tell...

 

  1. Deadpool
  2. Kung Fu Panda 3
  3. Zootopia
  4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
  5. The Jungle Book
  6. Captain America: Civil War
  7. X-Men: Apocalypse
  8. The Angry Birds Movie
  9. Finding Dory
  10. Central Intelligence
  11. The Secret Life of Pets
  12. The Conjuring 2
  13. The Legend of Tarzan
  14. Independence Day: Resurgence
  15. Ghostbusters
  16. Star Trek Beyond
  17. Suicide Squad
  18. Jason Bourne
  19. Bad Moms
  20. Sully
  21. Doctor Strange
  22. Trolls
  23. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  24. Moana
  25. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  26. Sing
  27. La La Land
  28. Hidden Figures 
  29. Arrival
  30. Passengers
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Locks:

 

Zootopia

BVS

The Jungle Book

Civil War

Neighbors 2

X-Men

Alice

Ninja Turtles 2

Conjuring 2

Dory

ID2

Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek

Ice Age

Bourne

Suicide Squad

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts

Moana

Rogue One

Sing

 

Good bets:

 

Ride Along 2

Kung Fu Panda 3

Deadpool

Angry Birds

Now You See Me 2

Central Intelligence

The BFG

Passengers

 

Wildcards:

 

13 Hours

Zoolander 2

London Has Fallen

Allegiant

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

The Boss

Keanu

Warcraft

The Purge 3

Pete's Dragon

Sully

Magnificent 7

Storks

Gambit

Girl on the Train

Inferno

Trolls

Bad Santa 2

The Great Wall

Assassin's Creed

 

Locks and Good Bets combine for 30, then we have all the wild cards and whatever late Oscar contenders there are.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Time to do another prediction

 

500m

  1. Finding Dory
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

400m

  1. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
  2. Captain America: Civil War
  3. Finding Dory
  4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

300m

  1. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
  2. Captain America: Civil War
  3. Finding Dory
  4. Suicide Squad
  5. Moana
  6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

200m

  1. Deadpool
  2. Zootopia
  3. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
  4. The Jungle Book
  5. Captain America: Civil War
  6. Finding Dory
  7. Independence Day: Resurgence
  8. The Secret Life of Pets
  9. Suicide Squad
  10. Doctor Strange
  11. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  12. Moana
  13. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

100m

  1. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
  2. Kung Fu Panda 3
  3. Deadpool
  4. Zoolander 2
  5. Zootopia
  6. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
  7. Miracles From Heaven
  8. The Boss
  9. The Jungle Book
  10. Captain America: Civil War
  11. Neighbors 2
  12. The Angry Birds Movie
  13. Alice Through the Looking Glass
  14. X-Men: Apocalypse
  15. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
  16. The Conjuring 2
  17. Warcraft
  18. Finding Dory
  19. Independence Day: Resurgence
  20. Central Intelligence
  21. The BFG
  22. The Secret Life of Pets
  23. Ghostbusters (2016)
  24. Star Trek Beyond
  25. Bourne 5
  26. Suicide Squad
  27. The Magnificent Seven
  28. Deepwater Horizon
  29. The Girl on a Train
  30. Inferno
  31. Doctor Strange
  32. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  33. Moana
  34. The Great Wall
  35. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  36. Assassin's Creed
  37. Passengers
  38. Miss Penegrine's Home For Peculiar Children
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guesses. (Assuming the current schedule on BOM sticks.)

 

Likely (25):

Kung Fu Panda 3

Ride Along 2

Deadpool

Zootopia

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

The Jungle Book

Captain America: Civil War

Neighbors 2

X-Men: Apocalypse

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Out of the Shadows

The Conjuring 2

Finding Dory

Independence Day: Resurgence

The BFG

The Secret Life of Pets

Ghostbusters

Ice Age: Collision Course

Star Trek Beyond

The Bourne Something Something

Suicide Squad

Doctor Strange

Trolls

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Moana

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

Possible (26):

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi 

Dirty Grampa

Hail, Caesar!

The Divergent Series: Allegiant

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

The Huntsman: Winter's War

The Angry Birds Movie

The Nice Guys

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Now You See Me 2

Warcraft

Central Intelligence

The Legend of Tarzan

Pete's Dragon

Storks

Some Sony Pictures Animated Film

The Accountant

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Inferno

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

The Great Wall

Brad Pitt & Marion Cotillard in a Robert Zemeckis Film

Assassin's Creed

Jumanji

Passengers

Sing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not doing any actual predictions for these, but just going off their names and what I know of the film, I'd guess:

 

13 Hours

Ride Along 2

Kung Fu Panda 3

Zootopia

Allegiant

Batman v Superman

The Jungle Book

Civil War

Neighbors 2(?)

Alice 2

X Men Apocalypse

TMNT

Now You See Me 2

Warcraft

Finding Dory

Central Intelligence

Independence Day

Secret Life of Pets

Ghostbusters

Ice Age

Star Trek Beyond

Bou5ne

Suicide Squad

Gambit

Inferno

Doctor Strange

Trolls

Fantastic Beasts

Moana

The Great Wall

Rogue One

Assassin's Creed

 

 

That's 32. So no, I guess I don't think it will happen.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just like every year, this record comes down to wildcards. 

 

 

Predictions:

500m:

Rogue One

 

400m:

Finding Dory

Captain America: Civil War

Superman Vs. Batman

 

300m:

ID: Resurgence

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them

 

200m:

Zootopia

X-men Apocalypse

Alice Through the Looking Glass

The Secret Life of Pets

Ghostbusters

Suicide Squad

Moana

Passengers

Sing

 

100m:

Ride Along 2

Kung Fu Panda 3

Deadpool

The Jungle Book

The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Miracles From Heaven

Neighbors 2

TMNT 2

The Conjuring 2

Now You See Me 2

Central Intelligence

Ice Age: Collision Course

Star Trek: Beyond

Untitled Bourne 

The Magnificent Seven

Storks

Dr. Strange

The Great Wall

Assassin's Creed

 

Total: 34 Films

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definite (22):

Kung Fu Panda 3

Deadpool

Zootopia

BvS

Jungle Book

Civil War

Alice

X-Men

TMNT 2

Finding Dory

Independence Day 2

Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek

Bourne 5

Suicide Squad

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts

Moana

Rogue One

Sing

 

Likely (14):

Ride Along 2

Angry Birds

Neighbors 2

Conjuring 2

NYSM 2

Central Intelligence

The BFG

Ice Age

Pete's Dragon

Storks

Gambit

Trolls

Passengers

The Girl on the Train

 

Maybe (15):

13 Hours

Zoolander 2

Allegiant

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

The Boss

Warcraft

The Legend of Tarzan

Sully

The Magnificent Seven

Deepwater Horizon

Inferno

The Great Wall

Pitt/Cotillard/Zemeckis Movie

Assassin's Creed

Jumanji

 

So if all of the definite ones and likely ones get in, that's 36. Add in a maybe here and there, and it looks like this could very well happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2016

 

1. Finding Dory: $580 million

2. Rogue One: $515 million

3. Captain America - Civil War: $470 million

4. Batman vs. Superman: $435 million

5. Moana: $335 million

6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $310 million

7. Suicide Squad: $290 million

8. The Jungle Book: $275 million

9. X-Men - Apocalypse: $255 million

10. Zootopia: $240 million 

11. Ghostbusters: $230 million

12. Star Trek Beyond: $220 million

13. Fantastic Beasts: $210 million 

14. Sing: $200 million

15. Bourne 5: $195 million

16. Kung Fu Panda 3: $190 million

17. Doctor Strange: $185 million 

18. Independence Day 2: $175 million 

19. Deadpool: $165 million 

20. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $160 million

21. Central Intelligence: $155 million 

22. Storks: $150 million

23. The Magnificent Seven: $145 million

23. TMNT 2: $135 million 

24. 13 Hours: $130 million 

25. The Girl on the Train: $125 million

26. Gambit: $120 million

27. Ice Age 5: $120 million 

28.  Passengers: $120 million

29. Neighbors 2: $115 million 

30.  Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $115 million 

31. Angry Birds: $110 million

32. Zoolander 2: $110 million 

33. The Founder: $110 million

34. Sully: $105 million 

35. Pete's Dragon: $105 million 

35. The Conjuring 2: $105 million 

36. Miracles From Heaven: $100 million 

37. Allegiant: $100 million 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It won't be weak

 

BVS (March), KFP3 (January), Allegiant (March), Zootopia (March) and Ride Along 2 (January) all should pass 100M easily. That's five films. Last year we had six and the biggest grosser was Cinderella. BVS will be significantly bigger than that.

 

Then we have some potential breakout films:

13 hours

Deadpool

How to be single

Gods of Egypt

Hail, Caesar

London has fallen

 

Of those, I can see Deadpool and/or How to be single grossing 100M thanks to a February without strong tentpoles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stripe said:

It won't be weak

 

BVS (March), KFP3 (January), Allegiant (March), Zootopia (March) and Ride Along 2 (January) all should pass 100M easily. That's five films. Last year we had six and the biggest grosser was Cinderella. BVS will be significantly bigger than that.

 

Then we have some potential breakout films:

13 hours

Deadpool

How to be single

Gods of Egypt

Hail, Caesar

London has fallen

 

Of those, I can see Deadpool and/or How to be single grossing 100M thanks to a February without strong tentpoles.

In the 1st quarter, I think the top 10 will be 

  1. Batman vs. Superman
  2. Zootopia
  3. Kung Fu Panda 3
  4. Deadpool
  5. 13 Hours
  6. Ride Along 2
  7. Allegiant 
  8. Miracles From Heaven
  9. Zoolander 2
  10. Hail, Caesar!/The Finest Hours 

6-8 of those should do $100 million DOM, if a couple break out. And like others mentioned above, BvS will be significantly above Cinderella DOM, so all 1st Qtr 2016 needs is for everything else to perform solidly... KFP3 and/or Zootopia doing $200 million+ DOM would also be beneficial. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stripe said:

It won't be weak

 

BVS (March), KFP3 (January), Allegiant (March), Zootopia (March) and Ride Along 2 (January) all should pass 100M easily. That's five films. Last year we had six and the biggest grosser was Cinderella. BVS will be significantly bigger than that.

 

Then we have some potential breakout films:

13 hours

Deadpool

How to be single

Gods of Egypt

Hail, Caesar

London has fallen

 

Of those, I can see Deadpool and/or How to be single grossing 100M thanks to a February without strong tentpoles.

Yikes I forgot KFP3 :/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So much potential this year for 100m grossers. Here it goes:

 

Locks (19):

Kung Fu Panda 3

Zootopia

Batman vs Superman

The Jungle Book

Civil War

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Apocalypse

TMNT 2

Finding Dory

Independence Day 2

The Secret Life of Pets

Star Trek Beyond

Bourne 5

Suicide Squad

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Moana

Rogue One

Sing

 

Likely (12):

Ride Along 2

Deadpool

Zoolander 2

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Angry Birds

Neighbors 2

The Conjuring 2

Central Intelligence

Ghostbusters

The Magnificent Seven

Passengers

The Great Wall

 

Possible (12):

Allegiant

Miracles From Heaven

The Boss

Now You See Me 2

The BFG

Ice Age 5

Gambit

Inferno

The Girl on the Train

Trolls

Assassin's Creed

Jumanji

 

Long shots (15):

13 Hours

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

London Has Fallen

Barbershop: The Next Cut

Rings

The Hunstman: Winter's War

Ratchet and Clank

Warcraft

The Legend of Tarzan

Pete's Dragon

Kubo and the Two Strings

The Accountant

Storks

The Founder

Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children

 

For a grand total of 58. Granted we won't have that of course, but it is insane we even have that many with long shot potential, and that is before counting any little indie or Oscar breakout no one can predict. We could definitely hit 40+ this year. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On January 8, 2016 at 9:21 AM, langer said:

I'm having a hard times with 500M+ Dory.  Pixar doesn't have a very good track record with sequels outside of TS. 

 

They've only made 2 sequels outside of TS, cut them some slack.

 

Besides, this is BO and Finding Nemo is easily their biggest film.  A sequel to it is a bigger deal to the kids who grew up on it than Toy Story 3 was for the kids who grew up on it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, The Panda said:

 

They've only made 2 sequels outside of TS, cut them some slack.

 

Besides, this is BO and Finding Nemo is easily their biggest film.  A sequel to it is a bigger deal to the kids who grew up on it than Toy Story 3 was for the kids who grew up on it.

 

I'm not saying it's impossible.  Finding Nemo's original run adjust to around 470M$ and it didn't have much competition in its demographic aside from a Rugrats movie and POTC in its 7th week and Spy Kids in its 9th week.  

 

This one is gonna have Tarzan in its 3rd week, Secret life of Pets in its 4th week and Ice Age in its 6th week.  This is a very different market than 13 years ago.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/11/2016 at 0:51 AM, langer said:

 

I'm not saying it's impossible.  Finding Nemo's original run adjust to around 470M$ and it didn't have much competition in its demographic aside from a Rugrats movie and POTC in its 7th week and Spy Kids in its 9th week.  

 

This one is gonna have Tarzan in its 3rd week, Secret life of Pets in its 4th week and Ice Age in its 6th week.  This is a very different market than 13 years ago.  

?

 

POTC 1: $440 million (adjusted) 

Spy Kids 3D: $160 million (adjusted)

Rugrats Go Wild: $57 million (adjusted)

 

SoLP: $275 million (reasonable predict) 

Ice Age 5: $130 million (decline from IA4 is expected) 

Tarzan: $65 million (bomb waiting to happen) 

 

And 2015 taught us that audiences will reject the other tentpoles if there's 4-5 that REALLY get them excited (Avengers 2/JW/IO/Minions accounting for a large amount of summer 2015 BO) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

?

 

POTC 1: $440 million (adjusted) 

Spy Kids 3D: $160 million (adjusted)

Rugrats Go Wild: $57 million (adjusted)

 

SoLP: $275 million (reasonable predict) 

Ice Age 5: $130 million (decline from IA4 is expected) 

Tarzan: $65 million (bomb waiting to happen) 

 

And 2015 taught us that audiences will reject the other tentpoles if there's 4-5 that REALLY get them excited (Avengers 2/JW/IO/Minions accounting for a large amount of summer 2015 BO) 

 

POTC was indirect competition  in the 7th week for Nemo, where it already had 83% of its BO grossed.  SLoP will be direct competition in its 4th week where Dory should have about 60% of its gross. 

 

As for your last sentence...I could come up with a clever quip about how 2014 taught us that summer sequels (TF4, DOFP, HTTYD2, Apes2) are dying and you can only get successful movies with original movies or sequels outside summer, but it would be as wrong as using 2015 ( a single year) to project to 2016.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.