Jake Gittes Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 50 minutes ago, filmlover said: It's pretty obvious nothing's beating La La Land at this point, right? It seems like a clear frontrunner, but we should know better than to declare it a lock when we're five months away from the ceremony. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: It seems like a clear frontrunner, but we should know better than to declare it a lock when we're five months away from the ceremony. lol I remember when everyone was saying The Artist would win after like Cannes a couple of years ago. Although that was an odd year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, filmlover said: lol I remember when everyone was saying The Artist would win after like Cannes a couple of years ago. Although that was an odd year. 12 Years a Slave was predicted to win after Toronto as well, but it was still a really close race. It's still possible Billy Lynn and/or Fences put up more of a fight than we expect them to, or Silence actually appears this year and knocks everyone out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 billy lynn is the only other movie i could see come along and disrupt as frontrunner. fences too stagey and i'm gonna guess scorsese's 3 hour piece about the persecution of jesuits in 17th century japan is a little too esoteric to win. as much as i can't wait to see it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 35 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: 12 Years a Slave was predicted to win after Toronto as well, but it was still a really close race. It's still possible Billy Lynn and/or Fences put up more of a fight than we expect them to, or Silence actually appears this year and knocks everyone out. I'm half-expecting Silence to be released any moment without announcement like Beyoncé or something. Marty be like "bitch I'm back by popular demand." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: 12 Years a Slave was predicted to win after Toronto as well, but it was still a really close race. It's still possible Billy Lynn and/or Fences put up more of a fight than we expect them to, or Silence actually appears this year and knocks everyone out. Gravity really shocked everyone by how much it took critics, audiences, and the business by storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 On 5/9/2016 at 2:35 PM, stripe said: After all the (unnecessary and unfair) campaign against lack of diversity I really doubt we are going to have an all white list of nominees. That puts high on the radar five films, and at least two of them will surely make the cut. Fences. The most probable nomination. Unseen... Birth of a nation. Still a contender no matter the controversy. But other strong films dealing diversity. Moonlight. The critical darling. Loving. The weakest contender. Queen of Katwe. Solid reactions at Tiff. Besides these films, it looks like there are five strong movies that are already receiving early strong WOM with strong chances to be considered La La Land - Tiff winner Arrival Manchester by the sea Lion - tiff runner-up Jackie Still have to hear things about two possible frontrunners Billy Lynn Silence Other noticeable possibilities A Monster calls (solid WOM) Passengers Nocturnal Animals (with some strong reviews) Rules Don't Apply Allied Sully (BO success, solid reactions, Eastwood fanbase) The Founder 20th Century Women Girl on the Train I have bolded the ones I am more confident about at this moment. Updated... And tempted to bold Katwe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 1 hour ago, stripe said: Updated... And tempted to bold Katwe I don't think you should. People don't seem very enthusiastic about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 1 hour ago, cannastop said: I don't think you should. People don't seem very enthusiastic about it. Maybe, but at Tiff it was 3rd. There are a lot of minor films that do not seem to gather a lot of enthusiasm but finally are nommed. Winter's bone, Beasts of Southern Wild... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I don't remember much surprise at Winter's Bone nomination. It was one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Lawrence's nomination was very much expected too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Disney sports films never get Oscar attention Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Just now, tribefan695 said: Disney sports films never get Oscar attention But who would guess that it's a sports film by the title? Heh. I don't think that that's the thing that's holding it back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 (edited) With reviews that aren't that great being a populist feel-good movie that appeals to 50-year-olds would be its main hook. And since Disney has a legitimately BP worthy film this year in Zootopia I'd think they'd put their campaign focus on that Edited September 19, 2016 by tribefan695 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 17 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: billy lynn is the only other movie i could see come along and disrupt as frontrunner. fences too stagey and i'm gonna guess scorsese's 3 hour piece about the persecution of jesuits in 17th century japan is a little too esoteric to win. as much as i can't wait to see it. Yeah the thing with Scorsese is that his status is so huge he's an automatic shoe-in for BP/BD nomination as long as his movies have good enough reviews and are released in the final third of the year. If Silence gets a qualifying release and has at least WOWS positive/devisive reviews he's probably gonna get nominated. But win? With a 3 hour historical epic that doesn't sound like the academy's definition of "epic"? I think it's very difficult. I think the main reason the "it's over, La La Land got this" talk has already started is that there isn't a contender that looks strong enough to take it down. All the potential BP nominees that have already emerged from festivals are too small (Manchester, Moonlight) or too sci-fi (Arrival) to really be contenders and we're just waiting for Billy Lyn to see if there's really a race. But Billy Lyn has to be really undeniable to win. I've read some oscar predicting articles banking on Ang Lee having a due narrative because he hasn't won best picture which is bullshit. Like anyone is gonna think "That poor Ang Lee, he may have an entire shelf just to put his 3 oscars that he won for 3 different movies in just 15 years but he aint got one for best picture yet, what a shame". That ani't happening. Billy Lyn has to be both successfull and overwhelmingly reviewed to justify a 4th (and maybe 5th) personal oscar for Ang Lee. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said: I don't remember much surprise at Winter's Bone nomination. It was one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Lawrence's nomination was very much expected too. Pretty much this. It was between that and The Town for the last spot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 17 hours ago, Joel M said: Yeah the thing with Scorsese is that his status is so huge he's an automatic shoe-in for BP/BD nomination as long as his movies have good enough reviews and are released in the final third of the year. If Silence gets a qualifying release and has at least WOWS positive/devisive reviews he's probably gonna get nominated. But win? With a 3 hour historical epic that doesn't sound like the academy's definition of "epic"? I think it's very difficult. I think the main reason the "it's over, La La Land got this" talk has already started is that there isn't a contender that looks strong enough to take it down. All the potential BP nominees that have already emerged from festivals are too small (Manchester, Moonlight) or too sci-fi (Arrival) to really be contenders and we're just waiting for Billy Lyn to see if there's really a race. But Billy Lyn has to be really undeniable to win. I've read some oscar predicting articles banking on Ang Lee having a due narrative because he hasn't won best picture which is bullshit. Like anyone is gonna think "That poor Ang Lee, he may have an entire shelf just to put his 3 oscars that he won for 3 different movies in just 15 years but he aint got one for best picture yet, what a shame". That ani't happening. Billy Lyn has to be both successfull and overwhelmingly reviewed to justify a 4th (and maybe 5th) personal oscar for Ang Lee. You forgot about Fences. It might fight La la Land for the Oscar. In order of plausible BP winners at this moment I would say La La Land is the frontrunner, but Fences / Billy Lynn / Silence could change many things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 I'm pretty confident Passengers isn't going to be a factor at all after watching the trailer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 1 hour ago, tribefan695 said: I'm pretty confident Passengers isn't going to be a factor at all after watching the trailer Indeed. It's obviously not going to be an awards play and shouldn't be treated as such. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 7 hours ago, stripe said: You forgot about Fences. It might fight La la Land for the Oscar. In order of plausible BP winners at this moment I would say La La Land is the frontrunner, but Fences / Billy Lynn / Silence could change many things. The thing with Fences is that I don't see it as a real BP conteder. It sounds more like a Denzel/Viola vrhicle to me but I haven't seen a frame of the movie yet, so I might be wrong. The only facts we have now is Denzel's directing trackrecord which is kind of iffy. Fences will need much better reviews than the "ehh, I guess it's fine" reception the 2 previous Denzel movies got. Every thing else is speculation. And that's also true for the "La La Land already won" talk. Outside of any contender that might or might not take it down, what if it just makes slightly more money than the 3 previous BP winners. Birdman was to weird, Spotilght and 12 years a slave were to small and depressing to hit it big at the boxoffice, so their 40-50mil were seen as a success considering the expectations. But if La La Land just makes 60mil it will definately hurt it because it is already perceived as this great crowdpleaser. Right now La La Land has all the buzz, the critics and the festival crowds love it but mainstream success is something else. It looks like a surefire hit just waiting to explode and it might be in the end, but last year Steve Jobs was a movie that had supposedly everything (to a lesser extent than LLL but still) going for it and then it went wide. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 On 9/19/2016 at 11:19 AM, Joel M said: I've read some oscar predicting articles banking on Ang Lee having a due narrative because he hasn't won best picture which is bullshit. Like anyone is gonna think "That poor Ang Lee, he may have an entire shelf just to put his 3 oscars that he won for 3 different movies in just 15 years but he aint got one for best picture yet, what a shame". 3 Yeah, I've seen that line of thought elsewhere and it's pretty dumb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
