Impact Posted September 4, 2016 Author Share Posted September 4, 2016 Any by Disney this year then? That and Universal are the only major studios that I'm not sure if they have any OC's this year. (Would love to see Pete's Dragon get nominated for something-wont happen though) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Impact said: Any by Disney this year then? Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, Impact said: Any by Disney this year then? That and Universal are the only major studios that I'm not sure if they have any OC's this year. (Would love to see Pete's Dragon get nominated for something-wont happen though) Pixar and WDAS are the closest thing to Oscar bait that Disney has. Queen of Katwe might barely count for something, though. Edited September 4, 2016 by cannastop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 I think the pundits are overestimating Loving's chances. Reviews are pretty average for what's supposed to be a big contender, and while I think the film will get notices for Negga, the screenplay and some of the technical stuff like Production Design and Costume Design, I think it's gonna be this year's Carol. The Birth of a Nation is definitely out, along with any other major categories besides maybe King for Supporting Actress (the field is so weak this year). With all the controversy I don't think Fox Searchlight is gonna bother putting up a campaign, and it'll just get shut out after the guilds and the Globes. I think people are definitely underestimating Moonlight. It's supposed to be pretty spectacular, and I think it could receive major attention in many of the major categories. It's A24's biggest contender (they financed the movie themselves for a change), and it's got a 100 on Metacritic right now. Finally, while it's already been confirmed by Scorcese that Silence will get released this year, I think WB might push up Live by Night for a December platform release. They've only got two contenders (Sully and Collateral Beauty), and both of them look pretty unnoteworthy. If that happens then that could change things up a little bit, like a possible BP nom, an acting nom for Affleck and some other stuff. So right now, pretty early on: Arrival Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Fences La La Land Live by Night Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Silence 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 I wouldn't completely rule out Sully since it is Eastwood coming off American Sniper and the movie should do pretty well at the box office, and especially if Hanks has a ton of traction. Even though he doesn't campaign anymore (which is likely what cost him his presumably locked nomination three years ago), the year is pretty weak for the category, and outside of Denzel, it's looking to be very young by Best Actor standards this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in due to lack of competition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 (edited) After all the (unnecessary and unfair) campaign against lack of diversity I really doubt we are going to have an all white list of nominees. That puts high on the radar four films, and at least two of them will surely make the cut. Fences. The most probable nomination. Birth of a nation. Still a contender no matter the controversy. Moonlight. The critical darling. Loving. The weakest contender. Besides these films, it looks like there are three strong movies that are already receiving early strong WOM La La Land Arrival Manchester by the sea Still have to hear things about two possible frontrunners Billy Lynn Silence Other noticeable possibilities Lion (never ever underestimate Weinstein) Passengers Nocturnal Animals (with some strong reviews) Rules Don't Apply Allied Sully The Founder 20th Century Women Girl on the Train I have bolded the ones I am more confident about at this moment. Edited September 5, 2016 by stripe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Hell or High Water is a possibility I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 3 hours ago, stripe said: Besides these films, it looks like there are three strong movies that are already receiving early strong WOM La La Land Billy Lynn Manchester by the sea Still have to hear things about two possible frontrunners Arrival Silence Great list but you should switch Billy Lynn and Arrival. Arrival has early strong WOM, Billy Lynn is still unseen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 hours ago, stripe said: Other noticeable possibilities Lion (never ever underestimate Weinstein) Weinstein is pretty much broke right now. They missed out on a Best Picture nomination last year and they likely will this year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 54 minutes ago, Joel M said: Great list but you should switch Billy Lynn and Arrival. Arrival has early strong WOM, Billy Lynn is still unseen. Arrival already seen! Didn't see those early reviews. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 22 minutes ago, filmlover said: Weinstein is pretty much broke right now. They missed out on a Best Picture nomination last year and they likely will this year too. Last year Carol was BP snubbed and Hateful Eight was in the conversation despite mixed WOM. It was the first year since 2007 that a Weinstein movie didn't make the cut. I know this year Weinstein has many financial problems but, if Lion opens, be sure it will be seriously considered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Awards Watch sees La La Land as the frontrunner, with Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk in close second. http://awardswatch.com/predictions/2017-oscar-predictions-best-picture-september-la-la-land-billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-silence-manchester-by-the-sea-fences/ La La Land: 96 Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: 90 Silence: 76 Manchester By the Sea: 75 Fences: 49 Moonlight: 48 Arrival: 43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Those seven plus Live by Night if eligible are where I'm at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 If American Pastoral and Snowden's odds were on life support before, TIFF reviews officially killed them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Spaghetti said: If American Pastoral and Snowden's odds were on life support before, TIFF reviews officially killed them. Snowden was doomed from the moment it was announced. Last time Oliver Stone factored into the Oscar race at all was more than 20 years ago, plus the repeated delays were never a good sign. American Pastoral looked extremely overwrought just from the trailer despite a great cast, so this sadly isn't surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 (edited) 16 minutes ago, filmlover said: American Pastoral looked extremely overwrought just from the trailer despite a great cast, so this sadly isn't surprising. Ewan McGregor as a director inspired skepticism. Being a Philip Roth adaption also inspired skepticism. Shame it couldn't rise above the odds. Edit: Also, Dakota Fanning in a heavy role, lol. Edited September 10, 2016 by cannastop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 On 9/3/2016 at 11:38 PM, WrathOfHan said: Live By Night, The Promise, and Collateral Beauty all got new trailers recently. They all look like good movies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 (edited) 5 hours ago, Spaghetti said: If American Pastoral and Snowden's odds were on life support before, TIFF reviews officially killed them. It's kinda a shame because I was holding out hope American Pastoral would surprise. Snowden, though, always looked pretty shitty. You can tell from the trailers Oliver Stone kinda butchered it with his overwrought "FREEDOM ISN'T FREE" mantra. Edited September 11, 2016 by Alpha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray G Posted September 11, 2016 Share Posted September 11, 2016 It feels like La La Land is going to run away with this, probably with Denzel winning Best Actor to minimize the backlash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Fox Searchlight got Jackie. Expect it to be their main contender rather than Birth of a Nation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
