Weekend revised estimates and 4 days totals pg 43 4 day est: RA2: 41.6: The Rev: 39.0... SW7: 32.5

[terrestrial]

Quote

 

“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” passed $100 million at the mainland Chinese box office on Tuesday (Jan. 19.)

Data from local box office tracking service Entgroup shows the film’s gross exceeding RMB659 million, shortly after 2pm on its 11th day of release. China’s currency has slipped considerably against the dollar in recent months, but at current official rates of exchange that converts as $100.2 million.

The score represents good success for the franchise, which had little exposure in the Middle Kingdom before the current seventh episode. In 2015 eight Hollywood films and 12 Chinese films achieved $100 million.

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/asia/star-wars-passes-100-million-in-china-1201682640/

 

[Daxtreme]

5 minutes ago, Vadermort said:

Nope it's false. 

 

Revenant did 7.2M as you said.. 

 

 

It's still only an estimate, and not based at all on any actual number on Monday (the estimate was made on Sunday)

[narniadis]

37 minutes ago, Baumer said:

@nilephelan does have access to numbers. hEs been bang on before.  that seems like a huge number for SW....WOW!

 

If that be the case my apologies to @nilephelan - I have gotten used to our lower count posters just putting up numbers with no basis. And if so that is a big drop from estimates for The Revenant.

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

If that be the case my apologies to @nilephelan - I have gotten used to our lower count posters just putting up numbers with no basis. And if so that is a big drop from estimates for The Revenant.

I think the most he/she was off was something around 5% (not much, I forgot the detail) = once. The rest 0.1m-0.2m, if at all

Edited January 19, 2016 by terrestrial

[stripe]

14 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Drops will be huge today. SW will drop by about 60-65%

 

Probably, but there are also recent examples of softer drops. And discount Tuesday will help

 

A 65% drop would mean 2.4M same drops as Hobbit1, Avatar (64%), Green Hornet, Ghost Protocol

 

A 60% drop would translate to 2.7M same as Lone Survivor (60.2%), Hobbit2 (61%), Mama...

 

A 55% drop = 3M same drops or even worse than Taken3 (51.6%), Hobbit3 (56.8%), Unbroken, American Hustle, Jack Ryan (50.4%)

[Daxtreme]

That would be a 41,6% drop for The Revenant on Monday. So unexpected.

 

If that holds up, it seems I was right again - Disney was lowballing Monday as well, right after lowballing Sunday!

[stripe]

23 minutes ago, #ED said:

 

70%+ very possible.

 

I can't see that happening after looking the numbers for the same day last year!

 

Probable 65%

Possible 60%

Mmmmaybe 55%

[terrestrial]

Screen International ‏@Screendaily

Stephen Fingleton developing US big budget sci-fi http://bit.ly/1Pevm2o

[boxofficefreak]

6 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Lol you could say that of anything. Two tickets to a sports event can run $500 easily. My dad pays that for his second row Blazers tickets and he's a season ticket holder. He gives many away to friends / employees, and that's what I'll spend total seeing it. 

 

I get how if you're not a fan you don't get it, but I've spent or when I was younger my parents spent a combined probably $75,000 on Star Wars collectibles, vacations (Denver, Indy x2, Orlando, DC for the Magic of Myth, Orange County, Seattle for a Cinerama viewing), whatever else. Trust me $500 to see the actual movie doesn't mean that much to me. My AC broke last month and it cost me $1,500 to repair. That's an annoying expense. $500 to see a Star Wars movie I love in a great theater isn't worth even thinking about. My HOA dues are almost twice that every month.

 

When it comes to Star Wars money is no object for me. I budget for everything else and try to be frugal, like I don't even buy Blu-rays until they go down in price. But with SW I buy brand new and a digital copy or in the past every version, even keep an unopened VHS in the past in case of primary failure. To you, it's a movie series. To me, it's as close to religion as I care about

Humble bragging haha

[MovieMan89]

37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Theater drops throughout February will be happening though with 3 new releases a week forcing it out.

Yes, but none of the Feb releases are very notable except the VD/President's weekend releases, which is a holiday weekend so the hold should still be decent. I doubt theaters will want to axe a lot of TFA showings for the likes of The Choice, Risen, Race, Eddie the Eagle, Triple 9, etc. 

[SWXII]

18 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

That would be a 41,6% drop for The Revenant on Monday. So unexpected.

 

If that holds up, it seems I was right again - Disney was lowballing Monday as well, right after lowballing Sunday!

 

I am not even sure they are deliberately lowballing the numbers. Could be it continues to shock even them with these numbers.  

[terrestrial]

new thread is up

 

 

 

[filmlover]

41 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, but none of the Feb releases are very notable except the VD/President's weekend releases, which is a holiday weekend so the hold should still be decent. I doubt theaters will want to axe a lot of TFA showings for the likes of The Choice, Risen, Race, Eddie the Eagle, Triple 9, etc. 

It's up to the distributors in the end (and yes, I doubt most of those movies will get released in over 3,000 theaters).

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's up to the distributors in the end (and yes, I doubt most of those movies will get released in over 3,000 theaters).

I am pretty sure even if Eddie, Triple 9 or The Choice bomb they will still be making more money than Star Wars by the time they open.

[philippe08]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

 

I can't see that happening after looking the numbers for the same day last year!

 

Probable 65%

Possible 60%

Mmmmaybe 55%

-55% almost impossible.

 

Monday, January 4: -63%

Monday, January 11th: -75%

 

I think -65% minimum.

[Daxtreme]

7 minutes ago, philippe08 said:

-55% almost impossible.

 

Monday, January 4: -63%

Monday, January 11th: -75%

 

I think -65% minimum.

 

Yeah but it's still discount Tuesday. Wednesday drop's gonna be huge though.

[philippe08]

5 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Yeah but it's still discount Tuesday. Wednesday drop's gonna be huge though.

 

that Wednesday will be very difficult for all movies

[ladyevenstar22]

16 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Going for TFA #18 tonight. Tomorrow will be 19 with my sister and her boyfriend - his first time.

....dude you sure know how to hold your TFA liquor !

[baumer]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Probably, but there are also recent examples of softer drops. And discount Tuesday will help

 

A 65% drop would mean 2.4M same drops as Hobbit1, Avatar (64%), Green Hornet, Ghost Protocol

 

A 60% drop would translate to 2.7M same as Lone Survivor (60.2%), Hobbit2 (61%), Mama...

 

A 55% drop = 3M same drops or even worse than Taken3 (51.6%), Hobbit3 (56.8%), Unbroken, American Hustle, Jack Ryan (50.4%)

 

Yea, but SW had a huge hold on Monday because of families, so it will more than likely drop harder than most films in the top 12.

[stripe]

12 hours ago, Baumer said:

 

Yea, but SW had a huge hold on Monday because of families, so it will more than likely drop harder than most films in the top 12.

 

Huge hold on Monday, but not a family like hold like Alvin or Norm.

And some of my examples had great holds after falling only 20-30% on Monday.