Tuesday (19 January) actuals | Revenent 3.14 | SW7 $2.38 | Ride Along 2 $2.278 | 13h $1.84 | DH 702k | Big Short 573k | chart p.4 | major release date changes p.1

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, langer said:

Spoiler

If you look at the last 2 weekends, TFA was at 2,87X over TTT (weekend of 8-10 jan 2016 compared to 10-12 jan 2003) and 2,64X (weekend of 15-18 Jan 2016 vs 17-20 Jan 2003).  This is a decreasing trend that's bound to keep going especially since TTT  didn't drop over 38% for the next 8 weekends following the MLK weekend.  TTT grossed 39M more after MLK and I expect TFA to gross between 88M (2,25X) and 94M (2,4X) to end up very close to 950M. 

 

Spoiler

 

Yeah I know, its up and down, partly even over 3 times.

But I do look at it more like spread over some days, as other dynamics and general situation then.

 

If you look into the predictions of The Wrap and DL, both say for the upcomming an over TTT times 3 weekend ( $15m or $12m-$13m)

TTT got 1,673,000+3,447,000+1,415,000 *3 = $9,365,000 $19,605,000

 

Edit: I'll never use the google calculator for a combined calculation anymore, it seems to have a bit of a problem with that. And me was to distracted to really look at the result, bad me.

 

What I meant with my wording was =

~ general pattern still somewhat there, was a bit down, seems to be ~ back, but I only think sporadicly and only for a short time.

I am waiting for the real break away of that pattern

 

 

= as Langer pointed out correctly, it's broken, I put it in spoiler tags, as it's a bit long for a mistake (but do not want to delete my mistake)

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, kesleyk said:

Would love to see this graph include the first three weeks of all three of those movies. 

 

A few posts into page one I added one that includes SW 7, JW, and Avatar too. It including Monday, see the rest of the text

[jedieb]

That drop was pretty close to what I had on my model. I think TFA will hit $900M around Jan 31.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[EmpireCity]

The Revenant bounced back nicely as expected.  

[langer]

11 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

If you look into the predictions of The Wrap and DL, both say for the upcomming an over TTT times 3 weekend ( $15m or $12m-$13m)

TTT got 1,673,000+3,447,000+1,415,000 *3 = $9,365,000

 

Check your math...  you only multiplied the last figure by 3 ( 1,415,000).  TTT did 6, 611,702$ on the comparable weekend.  Wrap and DL are predicting between 2X and 2,25X. 

 

I get that some days will be at 3X, but on average and where it counts (weekends) the trend looks to be under 2,75X and going downward. 

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, jedieb said:

That drop was pretty close to what I had on my model. I think TFA will hit $900M around Jan 31.

I think that milestone might be later into February, maybe even ~ middle?

 

Only to make it clear, only bcs I am so fascinated with the TTT calculation model = waiting for the break of that ~ model, I am not sure about SW7 going as far over $900m as some seem to think.

I think a bit more is possible, depending a lot on the market in general for the next ~ 2-3 weeks, but I do not count on it.

Beside that, each additional $ is already gravy since some time, even if it would get pulled today....

 

[e1828]

 

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Graph is showing TFA above JW for Days 33-35, but JW is higher on Day 33 and will be higher on Days 34-35.  Also is TFA's gross 0 on Days 60+?  Will TFA be out of theaters mid-February?

[terrestrial]

 

Spotlight

$217,236

-49%

985

617

$221

$31,262,564

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, langer said:

Check your math...  you only multiplied the last figure by 3 ( 1,415,000).  TTT did 6, 611,702$ on the comparable weekend.  Wrap and DL are predicting between 2X and 2,25X. 

I get that some days will be at 3X, but on average and where it counts (weekends) the trend looks to be under 2,75X and going downward. 

Haha, I used the google calculator, didn't even really look at it (it is still in it, no idea why it can not do it anymore),

 

yeah, it's broken already, was cool to follow...

[setna]

22 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I think that milestone might be later into February, maybe even ~ middle?

 

Only to make it clear, only bcs I am so fascinated with the TTT calculation model = waiting for the break of that ~ model, I am not sure about SW7 going as far over $900m as some seem to think.

I think a bit more is possible, depending a lot on the market in general for the next ~ 2-3 weeks, but I do not count on it.

Beside that, each additional $ is already gravy since some time, even if it would get pulled today....

 

 

I´m agree with you, i think any day can appear terrible drops and going down very fast, we sometimes forget that this amassed already 859 million... i´ll be happy right now with over 900, and take the rest as an aditional present...

[jedieb]

3 minutes ago, jedieb said:

That drop was pretty close to what I had on my model. I think TFA will hit $900M around Jan 31.

I think that milestone might be later into February, maybe even ~ middle?

 

Only to make it clear, only bcs I am so fascinated with the TTT calculation model = waiting for the break of that ~ model, I am not sure about SW7 going as far over $900m as some seem to think.

I think a bit more is possible, depending a lot on the market in general for the next ~ 2-3 weeks, but I do not count on it.

Beside that, each additional $ is already gravy since some time, even if it would get pulled today....

 

I'm using a modified Avatar model. I've basically taken most of Avatar days and given TFA weaker holds on most days. It's been pretty stable for the last week or so. By the end of February I think TFA has a shot at $920+M. Not much more.

If someone had told me that on Dec. 1st I would have told them they had a drinking problem.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[A District 3 Engineer]

THE REVENANT took in $3.14M on Tuesday and has grossed $98.84M to date domestically. #TheRevenant

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

enero 20, 2016

RIDE ALONG 2 took in $2.28M on Tuesday and has grossed $43.28M in 5 days domestically. #RideAlong2

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

enero 20, 2016

 

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by A District 3 Engineer

[baumer]

Based on TFA doing about 1.75 on Thursday i have it doing about 15.75 this weekend.

 

That puts it over 880 mill.

[baumer]

I still see this doing north of 930

[A District 3 Engineer]

Quote

Sisters

$451,565

-43%

2,313

-551

$195

$82,367,005

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by A District 3 Engineer

[filmlover]

Advance warning: rough weather is looking to take a toll on a good portion of the country this weekend, so that might tamper the grosses all around this weekend a bit.

[terrestrial]

13 minutes ago, jedieb said:

If someone had told me that on Dec. 1st I would have told them they had a drinking problem.

Me too!

[#ED]

Winter is coming.

[terrestrial]

Ride Along 2

$2,278,050

-60%

3,175

--

$717

$43,284,755

Krampus

$4,770

-65%

106

-139

$45

$42,717,180

 

[Intergalactic Ping Pong]

1 hour ago, e1828 said:

 

 

Graph is showing TFA above JW for Days 33-35, but JW is higher on Day 33 and will be higher on Days 34-35.  Also is TFA's gross 0 on Days 60+?  Will TFA be out of theaters mid-February?

 

Box office numbers are interesting to track over their respective runs. But for the studios/distributors, they profit far more off a movie that makes its money upfront. Because they get a much larger share of the profits for the first couple weeks. 

 

   "The studios (for these bigger films, we'll now assume the studios are the distributors) take a higher percentage of the box office gross in the first and second week.  It fluctuates, but we'll generalize and say that they take 80% of the box office take with theaters taking just 20%.  Once the third week roles around, the studios take less.  In this case we'll say 60%.  Theaters take 40%.  With each week after that the theater take raises while the studio take decreases, until a certain agreed point." - Ken Miyamoto, Produced screenwriter, former Sony Pictures script reader/story analyst

 

So for Star Wars: TFA, the studios/distrib could have made $521.5 million off of its $652 million gross through its first two weeks. For its third week, the studios could have made about $71 million from its $118.4 million earnings. The studio/distrib have already earned $591.5 million under these conditions.

 

Now let's compare that with a slow burn movie such as Avatar.  Avatar made $283.6 million in its first two weeks. The studio/distrib could have earned around $226.9 million from that. And if we take the rest of its earnings and give it the 60/40 split for all of it (which is giving it a more than fair shake according to the info above), the studio/distrib would earn $286.1 million off of the remaining $476.9 million. 

So, in total, the studio/distrib for Avatar could have earned $513 million from it's entire run ($760 mill).

 

Given the same factors, Star Wars could have earned Disney/distribs $591.5 million off of its first $770 million made in theaters. And it will make the studio/distrib even more (albeit at a much lower percentage of return) off of the remainder of its run. Let's say it hits $920 million. If we say the studio and theaters split this remainder 50/50, then that would be an additional $75 million to the studio/distrib. 

 

So while for some of us, these continuing numbers are interesting, for the studio/distrib they are much happier when their movies open huge and bring in alot of money in their first few weeks, because more of that money goes to them. 

 

P.S. Based on a number of other articles I read, the split gets much worse than the 60/40 I allotted to Avatar. In some cases by the 5th weekend a movie will be 25/75, with the 75 going to the theaters and it will remain that way or go even lower to 20/80. 

 

TL;DR Studios make more money off of movies that open big vs movies that earn their grosses slowly.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Intergalactic Ping Pong
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