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Wednesday Estimates (Nilephelan)

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Wednesday, January 20, 2016

 

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day
1 1 The Revenant Fox $2,215,817 -29% -42% 3,559 $623 $101,058,456 27
2 2 Star Wars 7 BV $1,814,233 -24% -42% 3,822 $475 $863,148,249 34
3 3 Ride Along 2 Uni. $1,459,150 -36% - 3,175 $460 $44,743,905 6
4 4 13 Hours... Benghazi Par. $1,375,849 -25% - 2,389 $576 $22,437,265 6
5 5 Daddy's Home Par. $483,719 -31% -44% 3,322 $146 $133,044,855 27
6 6 The Big Short Par. $438,262 -24% -32% 1,765 $248 $52,772,014 41
7 8 Sisters Uni. $346,950 -23% -45% 2,313 $150 $83,713,955 34
8 7 The Hateful Eight Wein. $341,345 -25% -46% 2,385 $143 $49,270,774 27
9 9 The Forest Focus $296,091 -29% -48% 2,509 $118 $23,028,469 13
10 11 Joy Fox $262,710 -25% -50% 1,796 $146 $52,811,476 27
11 12 Brooklyn FoxS $224,702 -18% +85% 687 $327 $25,627,932 78
12 10 Norm of the North LGF $212,409 -45% - 2,411 $88 $9,972,587 6
- - Spotlight ORF $182,478 -16% +71% 985 $185 $31,445,042 76
- - Carol Wein. $152,245 -13% -12% 790 $193 $9,782,439 62
- - Alvin .. Road Chip Fox $96,342 -43% -55% 2,221 $43 $81,314,349 34
- - Concussion (2015) Sony $87,305 -30% -69% 1,041 $84 $33,459,602 27
- - The Danish Girl Focus $84,117 -15% -25% 479 $176 $9,105,056 55
- - Creed WB $75,707 -21% -47% 878 $86 $107,735,567 57
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Theater Counts > 2016 > Week 4

January 22

Rank LW Title Distributor Theater
Count
Change % Change Est.
Screens
Change Est.
Shows
Change Week #
> NEW RELEASES
5 - The 5th Wave Sony / Columbia 2,908 - - - - - - 1
6 - Dirty Grandpa Lionsgate 2,912 - - - - - - 1
8 - The Boy (2016) STX Entertainment 2,671 - - - - - - 1
25 - Ip Man 3 Well Go USA 103 - - - - - - 1
26 - Caged No More Freestyle R. 116 - - - - - - 1
29 - Monkey Up Air Bud Entert. 48 - - - - - - 1
37 - Bleak Street Leisure Time 1 - - - - - - 1
> EXPANDING
1 2 The Revenant Fox 3,711 +152 +4.3% - - - - 5
3 4 Ride Along 2 Universal 3,192 +17 +0.5% - - - - 2
4 7 13 Hours... Benghazi Paramount 2,917 +528 +22.1% - - - - 2
14 14 Spotlight Open Road Films 1,030 +45 +4.6% - - - - 12
16 19 Brooklyn Fox Searchlight 962 +275 +40.0% - - - - 12
17 21 The Danish Girl Focus Features 794 +315 +65.8% - - - - 9
20 25 The Martian Fox 276 +1 +0.4% - - - - 17
23 36 Anomalisa Paramount 143 +106 +286.5% - - - - 4
24 33 Trumbo (2015) Bleecker Street 136 +70 +106.1% - - - - 12
28 62 Burnt Weinstein Company 61 +57 +1,425.0% - - - - 13
30 41 Son of Saul Sony Classics 34 +13 +61.9% - - - - 6
31 66 The Lady in the Van Sony Classics 30 +26 +650.0% - - - - 5
34 70 Ingrid Bergman: In Her Own Words Rialto 4 +1 +33.3% - - - - 11
35 81 Woodlawn Pure Flix 4 +2 +100.0% - - - - 15
> NO CHANGE
38 - Pierrot le fou (2015 re-issue) Rialto 1 - - - - - - 2
> DECLINING
2 1 Star Wars 7 Buena Vista 3,365 -457 -12.0% - - - - 6
7 3 Daddy's Home Paramount 2,789 -533 -16.0% - - - - 5
9 5 The Forest Focus Features 2,010 -499 -19.9% - - - - 3
10 9 Sisters Universal 1,594 -719 -31.1% - - - - 6
11 12 The Big Short Paramount 1,351 -414 -23.5% - - - - 7
12 8 The Hateful Eight Weinstein Company 1,277 -1,108 -46.5% - - - - 5
13 10 Alvin... Road Chip Fox 1,204 -1,017 -45.8% - - - - 6
15 11 Joy Fox 966 -830 -46.2% - - - - 5
18 18 Carol Weinstein Company 692 -98 -12.4% - - - - 10
19 13 Concussion (2015) Sony / Columbia 315 -726 -69.7% - - - - 5
21 26 The Peanuts Movie Fox 220 -39 -15.1% - - - - 12
22 24 Spectre Sony / Columbia 217 -71 -24.7% - - - - 12
27 32 Youth Fox Searchlight 76 -18 -19.1% - - - - 8
32 44 Macbeth (2015) Weinstein Company 12 -7 -36.8% - - - - 8
33 45 Chi-Raq Roadside Attractions 9 -8 -47.1% - - - - 8
36 59 The Letters Freestyle Releasing 2 -3 -60.0% -  
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Zhe Numbers weekend prediction

 

Quote

Three wide releases are coming out this week, all of which are expected to earn similar openings. None of which are expected to compete for the top five. ..

The Revenant seems poised to climb to first place over the weekend. ...might earn double the best of the new releases. Unfortunately, this still means the film will only make a hair over $20 million this weekend. It did crack $100 million on Wednesday, so it is closing in on its production budget.

Poor reviews ... steep decline for Ride Along 2. ...just under $18 million. That is the high end of expectations here. Just over $16 million is probably more likely.

Star Wars 7... with just under $16 million. The film remains on pace to get to $900 million domestically, but it will likely have to wait till after it drops out of the top five to get there.

All three new releases should earn between $10 million and $12 million.

I think The 5th Wave will start the fastest, but ... It's currently sitting at 31% positive, which is sadly ... internationally,.. didn't perform particularly well ... here as it did in Germany, the film will make about $10 million. If it does as well here as it did in Australia, it will bring in about $15 million this weekend. The low end seems more likely. I'm going with just under $12 million.

...The Boy will start out the best on Friday, but will fade the fastest... they are strongly negative. Both critics complain that the movie is not scary and is too predictable. ... for $11 million, ...

Dirty Grandpa ... but I think it will finish outside of the top five with just under $11 million.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/211070830-Weekend-Predictions-Will-Fifth-Wave-Open-in-the-Top-Five

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14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

No new movie over 3000 theaters lol.

 

And that 13 Hours expansion lmao.

 

Also, Danish Girl and Brooklyn are going wide.

 

The expansion for 13 Hours means it's finally coming into Canada.  It's playing in about 4 theaters here right now.

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4 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

The expansion for 13 Hours means it's finally coming into Canada.  It's playing in about 4 theaters here right now.

Wait wat :lol:

 

Nonsense decision by Paramount, IMO. Should have released in Canada as well last week.

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BOM week-end predictions

 

'Revenant' Hunts #1 Amid Newcomers, '5th Wave', 'The Boy' and 'Dirty Grandpa'

Here's a look at this weekend's predictions.

 

  • The Revenant (3,711 theaters) - $21.62 M
  • Ride Along 2 (3,192 theaters) - $18.68 M
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens (3,365 theaters) - $15.28 M
  • The 5th Wave (2,908 theaters) - $11.81 M
  • The Boy (2,671 theaters) - $11.22 M
  • Dirty Grandpa (2,912 theaters) - $10.53 M
  • 13 Hours (2,917 theaters) - $10.04 M
  • Daddy's Home (2,789 theaters) - $5.44 M
  • Norm of the North (2,411 theaters) - $4.18 M
  • The Big Short (1,351 theaters) - $3.71 M
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13 Hours is expanding by over 500 theaters? :lol: I'm starting to notice that more theaters in Orlando are now having Star Wars be in 2D and 3D on one screen or have no 3D at all. The Revenant is taking over most of the large screens as well.

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2 hours ago, Joel M said:

 

You can't apply American Hustle or Argo or King's Speech legs to this though just because of oscar buzz. Those movies opened at half of what the Revenant opened so the awards buzz had a bigger impact.

I am not. I am assume softer than typical weekly drops with a bump around the time of oscars. We shall see. I might go under, this weekend will tell us if it is going to hold strong from here on out or if the previous holds were due to Golden Globes or Oscar noms.

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My Derby predictions:

 

The 5th Wave 1
$13.00M
The Boy (2016) 1
$9.00M
Dirty Grandpa 1
$12.00M
Ride Along 2 2
$16.00M
The Revenant 3
$20.00M
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 6
$14.00M
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi 2
$7.00M
Daddy's Home 5
$4.90M
Norm of the North 2
$2.00M
The Forest 3
$2.30M

 

Thank God I'm not in the tournament. 

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2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

My Derby predictions:

 

The 5th Wave 1
$13.00M
The Boy (2016) 1
$9.00M
Dirty Grandpa 1
$12.00M
Ride Along 2 2
$16.00M
The Revenant 3
$20.00M
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 6
$14.00M
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi 2
$7.00M
Daddy's Home 5
$4.90M
Norm of the North 2
$2.00M
The Forest 3
$2.30M

 

Thank God I'm not in the tournament. 

I got kicked out last week as well :lol: I swear I will just copy and paste BOM's prediction, with just maybe some little changes here and there.

 

Norm's drop :rofl: 

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I am calling TFA over RA2 this weekend. TFA has been doing well the past 2 weeks on weekends compared to weekdays (playing more like a family film). I see 15.5 to 16.5 mil for SW. RA 2 with a >50% drop. Thinking 14.5-15.5.

 

Not to mention TFA has been over RA 2 in the dailies. I dont see RA2 playing more like a family film than TFA.

Edited by tokila
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After everything Jane Got a Gun has been through (it was supposed to begin shooting almost 3 years ago before all hell broke loose the day of shooting), the fact it's gonna open at all is some sort of miracle (although watch the end of the world finally happen before it does).

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