Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Kung Fu Panda 3 - 41M, The Finest Hours 0- 10.3M, The Revenant - 12.4M...Sunday holds better than expected.....SW over 11 mill and KFP3 over 41 pg 34

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Disney dumped The Finest Hours, plain and simple. Late January release, little to no marketing  It had no awards prospects which is basically the final nail in the coffin. 

Yep. The fact they moved it all over the place only to settle on a release in the wasteland of January indicated that they pretty much "gave up" on it long ago.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

But it's not like Joy was some big hit either. It's not even gonna make half of either Silver Linings Playbook or American Hustle, nor will it reach its budget.

 

It will finish only $4m-$2m below the budget, it's not like it is a flop or something 

 

And it's going to double it's (big) budget WW, despite being an Oscar movie that failed to get any acclamation, and with a marketing that only had focus in JLaw's good reaction for gifs, after all, I would say that it's a solid result, without the Queen, this movie would make Big Eyes' numbers 

Edited January 29, 2016 by Mockingjay Raphael

[narniadis]

2 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

Hmm, what?  

 

Tom Hardy was the villain  in Star Trek:Nemesis the one that effectively killed the movie franchise causing it be rebooted with JJ's / Chris Pine's Star Trek in '09

[narniadis]

And terrible preview for 50SOB.

[Rolling Thunder]

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

And terrible preview for 50SOB.

50SOB does look D.O.A. but it posted 8,000+ Tweets on Wednesday and actually has the highest IMDB rank of the openers. Don't think RA2  is a perfect preview comp because of Hart's fanbase (unless one argues MW's is the same). I think there's still a shot for low double digits - A Haunted House 2 was a sequel nobody wanted - in that demographic or otherwise.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Rolling Thunder

[Cochofles]

"Joy 's success"??

[Cochofles]

50 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

And [Joy  is] going to double it's [sic] (big) budget WW...

 

So, are we still pretending that movies don't need to be distributed and marketed? Are we still pretending that marketing and distribution is done for free?  Are we gonna pretend that all the money a movie makes goes 100 % to the studio? Ok.

[Dementeleus]

10 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 

So, are we still pretending that movies don't need to be distributed and marketed? Are we still pretending that marketing and distribution is done for free?  Are we gonna pretend that all the money a movie makes goes 100 % to the studio? Ok.

 

No, but at the same time, since we effectively ignore all the ancillary markets for a movie (PPV, VOD, home video, premium, cable, network TV) it ends up being a wash. If something makes double its production budget WW, it'll probably end up eking out a small profit in the long run. This is especially true for a non-tentpole movie without a giant WW marketing campaign.

[MasterofGrond]

Man, I'm the biggest Tom Hardy homer I know.

 

or at least I was until reading this thread...

[TalismanRing]

AWODT	That Awkward Moment	Friday	2014-01-31	0.25	-	0	8.7
ADAMJ	Burnt	Friday	2015-10-30	0.25		0	5
BSTRP	Unfinished Business	Friday	2015-03-06	0.25	1985	0	4.8
MDARM	Million Dollar Arm	Friday	5/16/2014	0.25			10.5
TTN3D	Titanic 3D	Friday	2012-04-04	0.25	-	0
MCFAR	McFarland	Friday	2/20/2015	0.26			11
VMARS	Veronica Mars	Friday	2014-03-14	0.26	95	0	2
50SOB	Fifty Shades of Black	Friday	1/29/2016	0.28
GRNFR	Green Inferno	Friday	2015-09-25	0.28		0	3.5
SJOBS	Jobs	Friday	2015-10-23	0.29	1748	2.7	7.1
SPKAP	Seventh Son	Friday	2015-02-06	0.30		0	7.2
TCOUP	No Escape	Wednesday	2015-08-26	0.30		2.06	8.1
BOLIF	Book of Life	Friday	2004-10-17	0.30	2150		17
THFTJ	Hundred Foot Journey	Friday	2014-08-08	0.31	2203		10.9
DRAFT	Draft Day	Friday	2014-04-11	0.31		0	9.8
SLFLS	Self/Less	Friday	2015-07-10	0.33	1600	0	5.4
3DTKL	3 Days to Kill	Friday	2014-02-21	0.33	-	0	12.2
LAZAR	Lazarus Effect	Friday	2015-02-27	0.35	2666	0	10.2
JRYAN	Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit	Friday	2014-01-17	0.35	-	0	18
ANNIE	Annie	Friday	2014-12-19	0.36		0	15.9
TRNS4	Transporter 4	Friday	2015-09-04	0.37	2200	0	9
HBOSS	Horrible Bosses	Friday	2011-07-08	0.37			28.3
HTUB2	Hot Tub Time Machine 2	Friday	2015-02-20	0.37	2052	0	6
GSOUL	Get On Up	Friday	2014-08-01	0.37	1769	0	13.6
FINHR	Finest Hours	Friday	1/29/2016	0.38

[DAJK]

Awful for 50SoB. Looked like garbage though so can't complain.

 

Finest Hours on the other hand is disappointing.

[Wrath]

16 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

AWODT	That Awkward Moment	Friday	2014-01-31	0.25	-	0	8.7
ADAMJ	Burnt	Friday	2015-10-30	0.25		0	5
BSTRP	Unfinished Business	Friday	2015-03-06	0.25	1985	0	4.8
MDARM	Million Dollar Arm	Friday	5/16/2014	0.25			10.5
TTN3D	Titanic 3D	Friday	2012-04-04	0.25	-	0
MCFAR	McFarland	Friday	2/20/2015	0.26			11
VMARS	Veronica Mars	Friday	2014-03-14	0.26	95	0	2
50SOB	Fifty Shades of Black	Friday	1/29/2016	0.28
GRNFR	Green Inferno	Friday	2015-09-25	0.28		0	3.5
SJOBS	Jobs	Friday	2015-10-23	0.29	1748	2.7	7.1
SPKAP	Seventh Son	Friday	2015-02-06	0.30		0	7.2
TCOUP	No Escape	Wednesday	2015-08-26	0.30		2.06	8.1
BOLIF	Book of Life	Friday	2004-10-17	0.30	2150		17
THFTJ	Hundred Foot Journey	Friday	2014-08-08	0.31	2203		10.9
DRAFT	Draft Day	Friday	2014-04-11	0.31		0	9.8
SLFLS	Self/Less	Friday	2015-07-10	0.33	1600	0	5.4
3DTKL	3 Days to Kill	Friday	2014-02-21	0.33	-	0	12.2
LAZAR	Lazarus Effect	Friday	2015-02-27	0.35	2666	0	10.2
JRYAN	Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit	Friday	2014-01-17	0.35	-	0	18
ANNIE	Annie	Friday	2014-12-19	0.36		0	15.9
TRNS4	Transporter 4	Friday	2015-09-04	0.37	2200	0	9
HBOSS	Horrible Bosses	Friday	2011-07-08	0.37			28.3
HTUB2	Hot Tub Time Machine 2	Friday	2015-02-20	0.37	2052	0	6
GSOUL	Get On Up	Friday	2014-08-01	0.37	1769	0	13.6
FINHR	Finest Hours	Friday	1/29/2016	0.38

 

Ow ow ow ow ow. Not pretty.

 

Then again, the average on those comps, even if you toss out Horrible Bosses, isn't really any worse than anyone was expecting. I mean, its not like Finest Hours was going to open to $30M or anything. At this point, I think most people are thinking around $10M for Finest Hours and maybe 8-9M for 50 Shades. These comps seem to suggest Finest Hours is more or less in line for that, and 50 Shades won't be far off.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Wrath

[Jonwo]

The failure of The Finest Hours does seem to justify why Disney rarely does midbudget fare anymore. All their midbudget fares apart from Alexander and the... and Saving Mr Banks have failed at the box office. 

[filmlover]

Lol if not for Panda this would be SUCH a typical January weekend. Dumps away, again.

[Fancyarcher]

2 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

*3

 

Legend was huge in the only country where it had obligation to do well, and yeah, that's what I'm saying, he may not be a big draw for now, but he def has some appeal with the GP, and this appeal must increase even more once that he win his Oscar 

 

Having appeal with the general public doesn't matter, when people are more drawn to concept then actors, a-lot more these days.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The failure of The Finest Hours does seem to justify why Disney rarely does midbudget fare anymore. All their midbudget fares apart from Alexander and the... and Saving Mr Banks have failed at the box office. 

 

There's Bridge Of Spies even though that was under their deal with Dreamworks. 

 

I think mid budget fair in general is the hardest to make a profit on because the marketing costs are still high and the DVD market that used to really support it isn't there at that degree any more.

[CJohn]

54 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

No, but at the same time, since we effectively ignore all the ancillary markets for a movie (PPV, VOD, home video, premium, cable, network TV) it ends up being a wash. If something makes double its production budget WW, it'll probably end up eking out a small profit in the long run. This is especially true for a non-tentpole movie without a giant WW marketing campaign.

Tele proving Joy will make money for FOX, a movie that was sold on the name of JLaw alone. Tele is Jesus confirmed. All hail Tele.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The failure of The Finest Hours does seem to justify why Disney rarely does midbudget fare anymore. All their midbudget fares apart from Alexander and the... and Saving Mr Banks have failed at the box office. 

Into the Woods cost $50M and did pretty well for them.

[Jonwo]

Legend was never going to be an easy sell apart from the UK because of the the subject matter. It was a success for Studiocanal and since they presold the distribution rights to Cross Creek through Universal, they still made money regardless.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Into the Woods cost $50M and did pretty well for them.

 

At $80m FH is on the higher end of "mid budget. It's only $15m less than Cinderella.  Other stuff like MacFarland USA only cost $17m.