Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Kung Fu Panda 3 - 41M, The Finest Hours 0- 10.3M, The Revenant - 12.4M...Sunday holds better than expected.....SW over 11 mill and KFP3 over 41 pg 34

[Infernus]

6 minutes ago, jb007 said:

 

 

Just like Location, Location, Location for Real Estate, it is timing for a movie.

 

The Revenant hit the perfect storm. Won the golden globes on the opening weekend. Got nominated for 12 oscars at the end of the first week. Its good fortune could not have been scripted better. A better movie would haveeasily  glided past $200M with that kind of opening, timing of awards win/nominations and awards buzz. Now it will have win some majors at the oscars to get past $200M.

 

 

 

I agree. The point is further proved through KFP3. I strongly believe it had potential for more than it achieved, here and especially in China, but the bad release date ruined it. Atleast in US the empty market place could still get it past 150m which wouldn't be so bad, but in China its literally grossing half of what it should have simply because of a very very bad release date due to the arrogance and ignorance of DW.

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

Yeah, turns out we've all been wrong all-along. The key isn't a 4-quadrant movie, its having a 5-quadrant movie. The missing quadrant being, of course, people who like bears. And people who like bears attacking Leonardo DiCaprio. And, I guess, the actual bears.

...but enough about tom hardy fans...

Edited February 1, 2016 by CoolioD1

[setna]

18 minutes ago, Baumer said:

About a 21% drop for TFA.  Very nice.

 

Do you know actuals yet?

[jb007]

 

 

5 minutes ago, Infernus said:

 

I agree. The point is further proved through KFP3. I strongly believe it had potential for more than it achieved, here and especially in China, but the bad release date ruined it. Atleast in US the empty market place could still get it past 150m which wouldn't be so bad, but in China its literally grossing half of what it should have simply because of a very very bad release date due to the arrogance and ignorance of DW.

+1

 

Based on comments by China box office experts in China forum here, DWs decision seems completely stupid. They did the same to KFP2 by pitting it against the Hangover2 in the US. 

[stripe]

1 hour ago, setna said:

 

JW made another 28 million, not 31 and with a re-expansion.  If TFA will make another 30 million would be 925, i see very very difficult going over 935 and almost impossible 950, but i really would love it.

 

Why should TFA remaining gross be the same amount as JW when this weekend the gap between both movies is more than 4M?

There are a lot of arguments to think TFA should gross +40M after this weekend.

The drops for JW over 8th and 9th weekend were 46% and 50%! TFA will have better drops on both weekends, especially the latter thanks to VD.

TFA PTA is considerably better than JW. That means less theater drops in the future.

Competition is definitely weaker for TFA.

From this point Avengers would be a better comparition for TFA late legs. That film made +39M after a 8.9M 7th weekend.

[baumer]

22 minutes ago, setna said:

 

Do you know actuals yet?

 

No actuals, but @nilephelan told us that SW did over 11 with actuals.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Star Wars needs to have an expansion in September and push the blu Ray release back to December.    

[grim22]

1 hour ago, Wrath said:

 

Yeah, turns out we've all been wrong all-along. The key isn't a 4-quadrant movie, its having a 5-quadrant movie. The missing quadrant being, of course, people who like bears. And people who like bears attacking Leonardo DiCaprio. And, I guess, the actual bears.

 

January was a good month for bears at the movies. Revenant, Norm and Kung Fu Panda 3 all featured bears prominently.

[Wrath]

50 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

January was a good month for bears at the movies. Revenant, Norm and Kung Fu Panda 3 all featured bears prominently.

 

Perhaps its not a coincidence.

 

Edit - That they all did well at the box office, I mean. Sort of well, anyway. Like, if you added them all up, and compared against their collective budgets, you'd be happy. Mostly.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Wrath

[tokila]

4 hours ago, setna said:

 

JW made another 28 million, not 31 and with a re-expansion.  If TFA will make another 30 million would be 925, i see very very difficult going over 935 and almost impossible 950, but i really would love it.

TFA is also operating a higher trajectory than JW was at the same point. TFA last week only made about 500k less total on weekdays (despite it being winter versus summer) and made 4 million more on the weekend.

 

Next week JW only made 3.9 mil and 1.9mil the week after that. TFA will likely double JW next weekend and could triple it president's day weekend.

 

Basically at this point in its run JW entered the crawl phase where as TFA is still very healthy.

 

Also, I see almost 0 chance TFA does not see a re-expansion in March before BvS. An IMAX re-expansion in march could make a ton on cash. At the point alot of SW fans would be in the mood again to catch it one last time on a premium screen.

[setna]

12 hours ago, tokila said:

TFA is also operating a higher trajectory than JW was at the same point. TFA last week only made about 500k less total on weekdays (despite it being winter versus summer) and made 4 million more on the weekend.

 

Next week JW only made 3.9 mil and 1.9mil the week after that. TFA will likely double JW next weekend and could triple it president's day weekend.

 

Basically at this point in its run JW entered the crawl phase where as TFA is still very healthy.

 

Also, I see almost 0 chance TFA does not see a re-expansion in March before BvS. An IMAX re-expansion in march could make a ton on cash. At the point alot of SW fans would be in the mood again to catch it one last time on a premium screen.

 

A re-expansion in March?...hummm....i´m not sure...but, even, if this happen, i´m not sure about "a ton" of cash after 930, 940 or wahtever...remember the extra footage of Avatar only gave 10 million more.

It sounds very atractive, cause all of us can dream with this billion, but even those 50, 60 or 70 million seem a long long way.