TommyA10 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 13 minutes ago, Jessie said: Sorry but this can be said about many films. How many people thought Avengers would smash TDK in 2011? It is an impressive run but it's not 'this movie exceeded everyone expectations' kind of run like Deadpool, american sniper or JW. I think the moment JW broke out people started taking trailer views a little more seriously. And to be fair, i always thought TFA would break the OW record because I was one of those people who have been arguing for years that a massive OW can happen regardless of the month. I thought it could break the OW record as soon as it was announced. I thought it would break the OW record after that final trailer/tickets going on sale broke the Internet. What I didn't think was going to happen is that mid-week after the OW (and the one after), as well as the following couple of weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Why do people care if a religious film about Jesus Christ tells you that it thinks you should believe in Jesus Christ? Is that preachy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, a2knet said: After It's nearly 250m ow, were people still saying, "this will cross 900m" ?. No. Maybe a rare poster might have predicted 900m+ but not most. I am going by my memory of the weekend thread. I think the 1b talk started in the 2nd weekend. My post talked about how in the prediction thread days/weeks even before the release happened there was an avg OW of $230m & 3.5x legs to $806m final total which shows there were plenty that had it above those totals. Just go back through it when you have the time. $900m-1b discussions started right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intergalactic Ping Pong Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, Baumer said: SW predictions in October: Jajang - $871M99 Trees - $809M The Panda - $760M The Background Character - $725M WrathofHan - $720M Avi - $717M Blankments - $705M DAJK - $689M Grey ghost - $675M Darkelf - $666M bcf26 - $660M Alfredstellar - $654M Exxdee - $650M Kayumanggi - $650M Kalo - $645M Infernus - $630M DamienRoc - $603M Baumer - $600M Telemachos - $592M Chasmmi - $542M laguy03 - $525M Misafeco - $520M Glassfairy - $477M Filmovie - $476M MikeyKaye42 - $450M No predictions over $900 million. 3 predictions over Avatar's gross. 22 predictions under. Small sample size, but only 12% even predicted this would best Avatar. It absolutely exceeded expectations on BOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 This discussion is off topic to daily numbers but since you asked, there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orestes Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The craziest thing about TFA may be that talking about a possible 1 billion dom wasn't crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyA10 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intergalactic Ping Pong Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) ^^What he said. Edited February 18, 2016 by Intergalactic Ping Pong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Star Wars was not a surprise. Sure some people may not have predicted 900m but most people were expecting gigantic numbers and even if they thought lets say 500m they probably in the back of their mind thought it could even do more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It's funny to see so many people acting like they all saw TFA making $935 million or whatever coming since forever and it was just the Heir Apparent movie of the last 10 years. In fact that's total bullshit. Even on the fan forums - not the more realistic box office forums - nobody was predicting it to top Avatar besides 2-3 posters. I was one of the most optimistic (and therefore accurate) with giving it a 50-50 shot at Avatar and saying it would definitely beat Jurassic World. I also argued for a large near record OW and said December doesn't matter THAT much. But most other people weren't predicting a record opening in December. To say that you really imagined it having the run it did with this mid-week numbers and those weekend holds is stupid beyond belief. Go look through threads like the Monday after opening thread and people were just as shocked and amazed as with Deadpool. Im not saying that Deadpool isn't a bigger surprise - it's a huge surprise - just that TFA's legendary run was more exciting than watching $8.5M on a Wednesday or whatever. Solid number but really who gives a fuck compared to $38 million or even TFA's second Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 1 minute ago, JonathanLB said: It's funny to see so many people acting like they all saw TFA making $935 million or whatever coming since forever and it was just the Heir Apparent movie of the last 10 years. In fact that's total bullshit. Even on the fan forums - not the more realistic box office forums - nobody was predicting it to top Avatar besides 2-3 posters. I was one of the most optimistic (and therefore accurate) with giving it a 50-50 shot at Avatar and saying it would definitely beat Jurassic World. I also argued for a large near record OW and said December doesn't matter THAT much. But most other people weren't predicting a record opening in December. To say that you really imagined it having the run it did with this mid-week numbers and those weekend holds is stupid beyond belief. Go look through threads like the Monday after opening thread and people were just as shocked and amazed as with Deadpool. Im not saying that Deadpool isn't a bigger surprise - it's a huge surprise - just that TFA's legendary run was more exciting than watching $8.5M on a Wednesday or whatever. Solid number but really who gives a fuck compared to $38 million or even TFA's second Wednesday. I remember seeing some people saying Avatar could go down Deadpool is far more surprising in any way than Force Awakens in terms of surprise at the box office 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) 6 minutes ago, John Marston said: Star Wars was not a surprise. Sure some people may not have predicted 900m but most people were expecting gigantic numbers and even if they thought lets say 500m they probably in the back of their mind thought it could even do more. Yes it was. There is a difference being expecting huge numbers and expecting the movie to blow past Avatar by around 170 million. It was not the general expectation that the movie would beat Avatar, neither on this board nor in public, much less that it would top 800 or even 900 million. If a movie makes 200-300 million more than most expected (and in quite a few cases expectations were even a whole lot lower than that, putting it closer to 400 million more) than that is both a surprise and extremely impressive, no matter whether one or two persons like to suggest otherwise for no apparent reason. Edited February 18, 2016 by George Parr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, Agafin said: That's not true at all. Many people didn't think that SW could do half as much as it did. It's only after JW's massive overperformance and the the reception to trailers in the later part of last year that people started to see what a beast it would be. How many people predicted $900 million for it in 2014? As for Deadpool being the biggest surprise of the decade, hell no. May I remember people of Alice in Wonderland? Or Hunger games? Or American Sniper? I never said it was the biggest surprises of the decade. I agree American Sniper was a bigger surprise, all I ever said was Deadpool was a bigger surprise than SW, which it was As for people predicting half of what TFA actually made even a year out, well they were idiots Edited February 18, 2016 by Jessie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, John Marston said: Star Wars was not a surprise. Sure some people may not have predicted 900m but most people were expecting gigantic numbers and even if they thought lets say 500m they probably in the back of their mind thought it could even do more. There is this misconception that because only a few people immediately/months before predicted in a few clubs/threads that it would beat Avatar that there wasn't a general consensus that TFA could do it. After JW that opinion became even more uniform. Most people don't post predictions until right before anyways so this argument is getting really silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, George Parr said: Yes it was. There is a difference being expecting huge numbers and expecting the movie to blow past Avatar by around 170 million. It was not the general expectation that the movie would beat Avatar, neither on this board nor in public, much less that it would top 800 or even 900 million. If a movie makes 200-300 million more than most expected (and in quite a few cases expectations were even a whole lot lower than that, putting it closer to 400 million more) than that is both a surprise and extremely impressive, no matter whether one or two persons like to suggest otherwise for no apparent reason. sure some people were being conservative in their predictions but in the end it making that much is not that surprising. Considering it is Star Wars coming back after a decade and it brought back the original cast. Movies like Deadpool, American Sniper and even Jurassic World I say are more shocking than Star Wars because nobody expected them to be close to the gigantic hits they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damianport1 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Hi, so what are the predictions for Deadpool domestic now? Is there chance for 400? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Is all of this real life? Arguing about Star Wars grosses and expectations again? Do any of you have jobs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) 5 minutes ago, John Marston said: sure some people were being conservative in their predictions but in the end it making that much is not that surprising. Considering it is Star Wars coming back after a decade and it brought back the original cast. Movies like Deadpool, American Sniper and even Jurassic World I say are more shocking than Star Wars because nobody expected them to be close to the gigantic hits they were 4/6 previous SW films did $785m adjusted+ (With 2 of those being new trilogies) even ROTS did $500m+. There were a couple analysts on Wall Street covering Disney who were calling for it to break Avatar (1 even said $1b/$2.5bWW). It's as much of a surprise to the upside as AOU was to the downside. Edited February 18, 2016 by GiantCALBears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) Come on, let's get real. How can SW7 be less surprising than Deadpool... These are holiday numbers till New Years weekend...beyond belief. http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VII-The-Force-Awakens#tab=box-office Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days 2015/12/18 1 $119,119,282 4,134 $28,815 $119,119,282 1 2015/12/19 1 $68,294,204 -43% 4,134 $16,520 $187,413,486 2 2015/12/20 1 $60,553,189 -11% 4,134 $14,648 $247,966,675 3 2015/12/21 1 $40,109,742 -34% 4,134 $9,702 $288,076,417 4 2015/12/22 1 $37,361,729 -7% 4,134 $9,038 $325,438,146 5 2015/12/23 1 $38,022,183 +2% 4,134 $9,197 $363,460,329 6 2015/12/24 1 $27,395,725 -28% 4,134 $6,627 $390,856,054 7 2015/12/25 1 $49,325,663 +80% 4,134 $11,932 $440,181,717 8 2015/12/26 1 $56,731,532 +15% 4,134 $13,723 $496,913,249 9 2015/12/27 1 $43,145,665 -24% 4,134 $10,437 $540,058,914 10 2015/12/28 1 $31,362,029 -27% 4,134 $7,586 $571,420,943 11 2015/12/29 1 $29,528,583 -6% 4,134 $7,143 $600,949,526 12 2015/12/30 1 $28,085,057 -5% 4,134 $6,794 $629,034,583 13 2015/12/31 1 $22,932,686 -18% 4,134 $5,547 $651,967,269 14 2016/01/01 1 $34,394,152 +50% 4,134 $8,320 $686,361,421 15 2016/01/02 1 $34,368,250 n/c 4,134 $8,314 $720,729,671 16 2016/01/03 1 $21,479,271 -38% 4,134 $5,196 $742,208,942 17 Edited February 18, 2016 by a2knet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: There is this misconception that because only a few people immediately/months before predicted in a few clubs/threads that it would beat Avatar that there wasn't a general consensus that TFA could do it. After JW that opinion became even more uniform. Most people don't post predictions until right before anyways so this argument is getting really silly. Is that so? Where is your proof for that? There was hardly anyone suggesting that the movie would beat Avatar, regardless of whether you look at summer, autumn or right before the start. There was the odd suggestion that maybe this movie could take down Avatar, but no one in the media really dared to officially suggest that, nor did anyone really on boards like this, apart from one or two people. It was most definately not the general consensus that TFA could do it. After the 100+ million presales number came out, a few people were suggesting that this movie would probably have the best chance of taking down Avatar of anything that would be released in the next few years, in a "if this won't do it, nothing else will" kind of way, but that isn't even close to suggesting that it will definately top Avatar, make 800 million, and much less beat Avatar by 170. Considering that something is the most likely, doesn't mean you consider it likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
