Wednesday Numbers, Deadpool $8.62m

[Captain Craig]

8 hours ago, Baumer said:

 

2016?

 

Maybe the decades biggest.

Yeah, how easily we forget the shock & awe posts just last summer in 2015 about Jurassic World. 

Or just two years ago in 2014 with Guardians of the Galaxy and American Snper.

Raise your hand if you totally saw in 2013 Sandra Bullock's Gravity doing as stellar as it did?

 

Clearly we are all a bit floored at Deadpool's success but I don't find it anymore remarkable than when we were all making similar exasperated posts about these other films either.

[Plain Old Tele]

7 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

There is this misconception that because only a few people immediately/months before predicted in a few clubs/threads that it would beat Avatar that there wasn't a general consensus that TFA could do it. After JW that opinion became even more uniform. Most people don't post predictions until right before anyways so this argument is getting really silly.

 

I agree with this... though emphasis on could. I was one of the low-ball predictions (made before tickets went on sale and the first full trailer hit).... but the fact that my prediction of 600m was considered "low" shows how high the ceiling actually was. Back then, if you had told me whether I thought it could pass AVATAR, I would've said yes, absolutely, it's got about the best chance of any movie these days. But I also hedged my bets because I didn't think that it was necessarily guaranteed to do so. I feel like most of the forum shared these general sentiments, but only a few were willing to actually publicly put their necks out there.

 

And yes, once the presales started happening and the second trailer took off like gangbusters, it was clear the movie was gonna have an absolutely giant opening. That was really the only factor holding it back for most predictions, I think -- the uncertainty of whether a 200m+ OW could happen the weekend before Christmas.

[department store basement]

I don't know why so many theaters are losing The Choice this weekend even though it had such a great hold this past one. The closest one to me showing this movie is 13 miles away.

[GiantCALBears]

6 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Is that so?

Where is your proof for that?

 

There was hardly anyone suggesting that the movie would beat Avatar, regardless of whether you look at summer, autumn or right before the start. There was the odd suggestion that maybe this movie could take down Avatar, but no one in the media really dared to officially suggest that, nor did anyone really on boards like this, apart from one or two people. It was most definately not the general consensus that TFA could do it.

After the 100+ million presales number came out, a few people were suggesting that this movie would probably have the best chance of taking down Avatar of anything that would be released in the next few years, in a "if this won't do it, nothing else will" kind of way, but that isn't even close to suggesting that it will definately top Avatar, make 800 million, and much less beat Avatar by 170. Considering that something is the most likely, doesn't mean you consider it likely.

 

I do have proof & from a decent sample size as well. The avg prediction on here pre release had it beating Avatar with 3.5x legs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2016 by GiantCALBears

[75Live]

not the friggin "this is better performance and number" crap again?!?

 

 

 

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

 

I do have proof & from a decent sample size as well. The avg prediction on here pre release had it beating Avatar with 3.5x legs.

 

It seems very simple to me:

Very few early predictions (made several months from release or earlier) had it breaking AVATAR's record. There were a couple of outliers, but they were a small minority.

On the flip side, from November onwards, there was broad consensus that it had an excellent chance to do it, and leading up to the last few days before release, that consensus grew into a significant majority.

[K1stpierre]

Very impressive number.

[baumer]

11 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I agree with this... though emphasis on could. I was one of the low-ball predictions (made before tickets went on sale and the first full trailer hit).... but the fact that my prediction of 600m was considered "low" shows how high the ceiling actually was. Back then, if you had told me whether I thought it could pass AVATAR, I would've said yes, absolutely, it's got about the best chance of any movie these days. But I also hedged my bets because I didn't think that it was necessarily guaranteed to do so. I feel like most of the forum shared these general sentiments, but only a few were willing to actually publicly put their necks out there.

 

And yes, once the presales started happening and the second trailer took off like gangbusters, it was clear the movie was gonna have an absolutely giant opening. That was really the only factor holding it back for most predictions, I think -- the uncertainty of whether a 200m+ OW could happen the weekend before Christmas.

 

But I'm talking about initial predictions.  That's why I posted winter game predictions in here.

[a2k]

Let's end the debate by agreeing that the most surprising bo has been of this movie.

 

 

[GiantCALBears]

7 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

But I'm talking about initial predictions.  That's why I posted winter game predictions in here.

 

Here is my problem with how you always twist this argument.

 

3 hours ago, TommyA10 said:

No one was expecting it to beat Avatar in 3 weeks and easily cross $900 million domestically. At best, 90% of people saw it crawling past Avatar by a few million.

I thought it could beat Avatar, but definitely not by the margin it did. Just look at those first couple of weeks. Complete insanity .

 

This post was responding to Jessie responding to a post about what was a bigger surprise Deadpool or TFA, JW. She simply said it was a rather predictable run & made what most expected it to make right before/as the release happened. Which is in general true/it outperformed by 15% from our consensus contest prediction. There was no mention about when the predictions occurred & you immediately go to your defense about how very few saw it coming months/years before the release. When has that ever been our de facto judge on here or on mojo for how surprising or disappointing a release has been? It's always been subjective based on your time frame. You basically are arguing presales numbers disqualifies the consensus that was formed after from a much larger sample size. Early predictions always have a much smaller sample & much higher variance associated with them. It's not fair to turn every discussion into expectations about your own perceived viewpoint of how it should be & that's what drives me crazy. In those threads/discussions before 2015 even started most of us on here expected TFA to beat JW, AOU to win the year & the discussions we had about which movie was most likely to beat Avatar, TFA was almost always at the top of the list from the day it was announced. There isn't a set time limit from where we judge the level of surprise & regardless it's clear JW & Deadpool on any time scale exceeded TFA expectations which you yourself would agree with.

[GiantCALBears]

“@BoxOffice: ZOOLANDER 2 earned $0.68M on Wednesday. 6-day domestic total is $17.55M. #Zoolander2” 

[GiantCALBears]

“@BoxOffice: DEADPOOL earned $8.62M on Wednesday. 6-day domestic total is $172.4M. #Deadpool” 

[TommyA10]

26 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Let's end the debate by agreeing that the most surprising bo has been of this movie.

 

 

What a run...

 

[GiantCALBears]

“@BoxOffice: THE REVENANT earned $0.46M on Wednesday. Domestic total is $160.9M. #TheRevenant” 

[ZattMurdock]

What a fucking monster Deadpool is. 

[Plain Old Tele]

Man, ZOOLANDER really boned me in my WG predicts. One of my stupider guesses (and that's saying something).

[ZattMurdock]

It just can't be expressed enough. 

[TommyA10]

10 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

Here is my problem with how you always twist this argument.

 

 

This post was responding to Jessie responding to a post about what was a bigger surprise Deadpool or TFA, JW. She simply said it was a rather predictable run & made what most expected it to make right before/as the release happened. Which is in general true/it outperformed by 15% from our consensus contest prediction. There was no mention about when the predictions occurred & you immediately go to your defense about how very few saw it coming months/years before the release. When has that ever been our de facto judge on here or on mojo for how surprising or disappointing a release has been? It's always been subjective based on your time frame. You basically are arguing presales numbers disqualifies the consensus that was formed after from a much larger sample size. Early predictions always have a much smaller sample & much higher variance associated with them. It's not fair to turn every discussion into expectations about your own perceived viewpoint of how it should be & that's what drives me crazy. In those threads/discussions before 2015 even started most of us on here expected TFA to beat JW, AOU to win the year & the discussions we had about which movie was most likely to beat Avatar, TFA was almost always at the top of the list from the day it was announced. There isn't a set time limit from where we judge the level of surprise & regardless it's clear JW & Deadpool on any time scale exceeded TFA expectations which you yourself would agree with.

I don't think those first few weeks were predictable at all. Did you really expect TFA to beat JW in 2, and Avatar in 3 weeks? I agree TFA had the best chance to beat Avatar out of the top contenders (and after the first week it was all but certain it would), but the speed it broke all the records is completely outstanding and crazy.

Deadpool was a huge surprise, I agree. Even the craziest of the predictions were around $100 million. All in all, Deadpool's opening was more surprising than TFA's run on average, but those first couple of weeks of TFA's run was the craziest thing in BO history (Titanic's legs is another).

[Infernus]

Well, you guys can go on arguing about SW vs DP but as I said earlier, JW wins this for it made just or almost just as many times the average predictions and did that with twice as big numbers in play. Thats enough to end the debate of whether it the most surprising in a decade. Its not even most surprising in a year. Anyways since we love ranking, here's my list of most surprising runs since 1 Jan 2015 -

 

1 JW

2 SW (250m OW in Dec, breaking prev record by highest ever margin? 40m Monday follows that? 150m...second Weekend? Thats crazy, thats BS crazy, I just can't even take in any argument after that and GiantCALBears you remember how you underpredicted it each day of its OW, right? How can you say it was predictable then?)

3 DeadPool

4 American Sniper

5. TGD

6 IO (you have to remember it opened on JW's 2nd weekend and most had there predicts lowered to 50m OW after JW's OW)

7 FF7 (OS especially)

8 AOU

9 Rev

10 Daddy's Home

Edited February 18, 2016 by Infernus

[Harpospoke]

3 hours ago, Jessie said:

 

And the average prediction for Deadpool was probably around 140m (I'm being generous here) which it will eclipse by 200M (over double)

 

Reading the first page of the Deadpool thread shows how much perception turned around.  It started out with "Why is this being made?" to where we are now.   You won't find that in the other threads.    All the movies being talked about were surprises (showing how useless "expectations" really are), but it seems to me that DP went further beyond the predictions than the others percentage-wise.    SW7 predictions are skewed by the early pre-sale numbers too.   Predictions started going way up after that happened as @Baumer pointed out.   Getting near the OW record in December was seen as unlikely...much less blowing it away.   So "biggest surprise" is really hard to pin down.