efialtes76 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 1 Deadpool $8,617,589 -25% 2 Kung Fu Panda 3 $1,233,022 -37% 3 How to Be Single $1,078,382 -25% 4 Zoolander 2 $677,058 -31% 5 Star Wars: The Force Awakens $465,786 -19% 6 The Revenant (2015) $457,264 -19% 7 Hail, Caesar! $425,650 -21% 8 The Choice $291,207 -30% 9 The Finest Hours $207,486 -29% 10 Ride Along 2 $200,125 -30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) It's subjective, there is no definite answer. Btw I'm consistently conservative on my predictions across the board @Infernus, it's nothing personal like it's made out to be related to TFA. Was wayyyyyyyyy off on what I thought Deadpool & JW would do comparatively & I'm far from the only one. Worked out well for AOU. Edited February 18, 2016 by GiantCALBears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 For surprising runs, I like to look at how late it was before the consensus realized how big it was going to be. And by that metric, Star Wars was not the most surprising film. It was huge, but given the presales and everything, it seemed pretty much guaranteed to set the OW record prior to the opening happening. JW, OTOH, was a huge surprise. Even just prior to release there was little indication that it would blow up like it did. Hell, even with the preview number it didn't seem the case. that it would gun for the OW record DP is similar to JW. Even just prior to release it didn't seem like it was going to blow up huge. Successful, sure, but even then expectations were that it would do in total what it managed in 3 days. It's a pity that @Wrath's tracking project only goes back so far, because if we had a massive amount of historical data we could troll it to see what OW expectations were just prior to opening. Even so, you can go back through Mojo and Guru and BO.com archives to see what they expected for films to open at and compare to the actual openings. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Love seeing TFA hanging in the top 5 daily numbers even though it's only playing in 1,800 theaters. Go DP! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 For sheer surprise, AMERICAN SNIPER's way up there for me... it's not even a genre that tends to open huge. Combined with the really mixed WOM from its initial screenings, that one came out of nowhere. JW was a big surprise, but at least it was a genre (and even a franchise!) that had opened enormously before.... in that sense it was basically a smaller version of SW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Just now, Telemachos said: For sheer surprise, AMERICAN SNIPER's way up there for me... it's not even a genre that tends to open huge. Combined with the really mixed WOM from its initial screenings, that one came out of nowhere. JW was a big surprise, but at least it was a genre (and even a franchise!) that had opened enormously before.... in that sense it was basically a smaller version of SW. AS had mixed WOM? I thought the limited run was spectacularly huge. It didn't necessarily indicate a wide opening on the scale it had (which was definitely up there), but certainly showed that it doing well above Lone Survivor wasn't a shock. Still, if we take a retrospect look, the JW and SW openings are in the "Oh, yeah, that makes sense" category, while AS and DP are more "no, I still don't entirely get it" group. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A District 3 Engineer Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 --TD-- --YD-- Title (Click to View) Studio -----Daily Gross----- ---% +/---- ---YD / LW--- ----Theaters / Avg---- -----Gross To-Date----- ------Day 1 1 Deadpool Fox $8,617,589 -26% - 3,558 $2,422 $172,371,048 6 2 2 Kung Fu Panda 3 Fox $1,233,022 -37% +33% 3,844 $321 $103,362,987 20 3 3 How to Be Single WB $1,078,382 -25% - 3,343 $323 $22,425,057 6 4 4 Zoolander 2 Par. $677,058 -32% - 3,394 $199 $17,546,296 6 5 5 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $465,786 -19% -26% 1,810 $257 $917,326,764 62 6 6 The Revenant Fox $457,264 -19% -28% 2,266 $202 $160,868,507 55 7 7 Hail, Caesar! Uni. $425,650 -21% -45% 2,248 $189 $23,105,035 13 8 8 The Choice LGF $291,207 -30% -31% 2,631 $111 $14,538,699 13 9 9 The Finest Hours BV $207,486 -29% -55% 1,794 $116 $24,267,562 20 10 10 Ride Along 2 Uni. $200,125 -30% -33% 1,564 $128 $84,102,320 34 11 12 Pride and Prejudice and Zombies SGem $171,405 -23% -51% 2,931 $58 $10,258,887 13 12 - The Boy (2016) STX $156,875 -24% -30% 1,450 $108 $31,802,423 27 - 11 The 5th Wave Sony $153,123 -33% -36% 1,444 $106 $30,507,781 27 - - Dirty Grandpa LGF $140,278 -27% -63% 1,612 $87 $33,737,397 27 - - 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Par. $109,357 -23% -62% 932 $117 $50,969,605 34 - - Brooklyn FoxS $108,906 -15% -21% 495 $220 $34,486,749 106 - - The Big Short Par. $102,567 -9% -41% 535 $192 $66,142,358 69 - - Spotlight ORF $71,148 -9% -31% 455 $156 $37,507,500 104 - - Daddy's Home Par. $62,543 -23% -36% 532 $118 $147,061,810 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: AS had mixed WOM? I thought the limited run was spectacularly huge. It had a few pre-release screenings (one at AFI, I think?) and buzz coming out was decidedly mixed. I remember the pundits saying Eastwood had whiffed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJL Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I don't think there is any possible way to look at TFA being a bigger surprise over Deadpool. Think of it this way.... When TFA was announced, people may not have been predicting smashing the opening weekend record or topping Avatar...but it was a credible possibility. Once marketing hit, it became clear that it would do amazing numbers at least CLOSE to the record and would challenge at least JW total. Now Deadpool, on the other hand, doubled most people's predictions they had on the week of release. When the midnight numbers came out, people still were debating if it would be able to break FSOG's record over the 3 and 4 day. No one could have even fathomed it would do 152m over the 4 day and there were very few predictions for over a 200m total gross LET ALONE a 300m or chance at a 400m total. Another way to look at it is tracking. Here is the tracking for both approximately 3 weeks from release. Deadpool outdid it's tracking by about 2.5x where TFA would have had to been tracking at about 100m to jump as much from tracking as Deadpool did as shown below: "Those with access to prerelease services say the scores are strong for Deadpool among both males and females (as of now, it is the first choice among females). One service even has Deadpool crossing $60 million, and that's before Fox makes its major marketing push." http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-ryan-reynolds-deadpool-858018 "Star Wars: The Force Awakens registered on distributors’ tracking reports today, four weeks before the film opens. On the low end, some are projecting $185 million, at the high end they’re looking at $210M, and Disney insiders think an opening close to $170M is possible." http://deadline.com/2015/11/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-opening-estimate-1201636913/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, Telemachos said: For sheer surprise, AMERICAN SNIPER's way up there for me... it's not even a genre that tends to open huge. Combined with the really mixed WOM from its initial screenings, that one came out of nowhere. JW was a big surprise, but at least it was a genre (and even a franchise!) that had opened enormously before.... in that sense it was basically a smaller version of SW. Given the media pre release hype & mixed WOM, which is more surprising to you Passion or AS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Just now, GiantCALBears said: Given the media pre release hype & mixed WOM, which is more surprising to you Passion or AS? Oh, PASSION, for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Force Awakens might not even be in my top ten in terms of box office surprises 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, Telemachos said: It had a few pre-release screenings (one at AFI, I think?) and buzz coming out was decidedly mixed. I remember the pundits saying Eastwood had whiffed again. Oh, prior to the limited release, then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJL Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I would say my top 3 biggest surprises in the last few years (not ranked in order) are: 1) Frozen 2) American Sniper 3) Deadpool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The popcorn eating gifs work great with this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Star Wars was supposed to do 3B WW. The surprise was it disapointed IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, #ED said: The popcorn eating gifs work great with this thread. What happened to the popcorn emoji? I guess a lot of Jeb! will have to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12 minutes ago, #ED said: The popcorn eating gifs work great with this thread. At first it was but then we started having those several paragraphed posts of defensiveness and it was like I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Jeb Bush. That guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) 2oolander is going to be in for a brutal drop this weekend. 62% is the minimum IMO. Choice is also going to have a drop in the 60's without Valentines. Edited February 18, 2016 by WrathOfHan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
