Stewart Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: HTTYD3 will have previews on February 23rd. Ah yes, 338 shows with ¥537k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 21 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Alita (5 days out) Midnight - 794k OD - 4.95m (21.32%) (37098 shows) Sat - 1.73m Sun - 1.03m Alita (4 days out) Midnight - 1.11m OD - 5.88m (18.78%) (40078 shows) Sat - 2.02m Sun - 1.14m OD PS of some other movies 4 days out Venom - 13.1m (69864 shows) Black Panther - 10.19m (37941 shows) Spiderman Homecoming - 8.85m Ant Man 2 - 8.43m (50340 shows) Aquaman - 8.16m (55005 shows) <-- only second day of PS Bumblebee - 6.83m (57895 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 4.84m PS still seems to be heading to low 30's and OW to low to mid 50's at this point. Show count continues to lag behind recent movies at same point in time. This could mean a relatively big increase in show counts towards the last few days which could translate into bigger increases in PS and thus higher PS total. We'll see how it goes. Or maybe theatres are planning on adding more shows to currently going local movies which are still going strong. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Alita (4 days out) Midnight - 1.11m OD - 5.88m (18.78%) (40078 shows) Sat - 2.02m Sun - 1.14m OD PS of some other movies 4 days out Venom - 13.1m (69864 shows) Black Panther - 10.19m (37941 shows) Spiderman Homecoming - 8.85m Ant Man 2 - 8.43m (50340 shows) Aquaman - 8.16m (55005 shows) <-- only second day of PS Bumblebee - 6.83m (57895 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 4.84m PS still seems to be heading to low 30's and OW to low to mid 50's at this point. Show count continues to lag behind recent movies at same point in time. This could mean a relatively big increase in show counts towards the last few days which could translate into bigger increases in PS and thus higher PS total. We'll see how it goes. Or maybe theatres are planning on adding more shows to currently going local movies which are still going strong. Its ahead GoTG 2 which did ¥99mn or $14.3mn OD & ¥334mn or 48.5mn OW. Bumble Bee did ¥110mn or $16mn OD - ¥406mn or 59mn OW. That's 20.4x OD for GOTG2 and 16x for Bumble Bee. Even assuming 16x, gives ¥94mn OD, which would be $14mn. FSS could be $47-53mn depending on WOM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Its ahead GoTG 2 which did ¥99mn or $14.3mn OD & ¥334mn or 48.5mn OW. Bumble Bee did ¥110mn or $16mn OD - ¥406mn or 59mn OW. That's 20.4x OD for GOTG2 and 16x for Bumble Bee. Even assuming 16x, gives ¥94mn OD, which would be $14mn and GOTG 2 legs FSS could be $47mn. Other films OD to Pre Sales 4 days out ratio BP - 12.11 Venom - 17.2 Homecoming - 15.8 AM 2 - 19 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 1:36 AM, ZeeSoh said: Alita (4 days out) Midnight - 1.11m OD - 5.88m (18.78%) (40078 shows) Sat - 2.02m Sun - 1.14m Alita (3 days out) Midnight - 1.12m OD - 7.75m (31.8%) (49108 shows) Sat - 2.63m Sun - 1.40m Good increase for Alita today 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 2:00 AM, ZeeSoh said: Alita (3 days out) Midnight - 1.12m OD - 7.75m (31.8%) (49108 shows) Sat - 2.63m Sun - 1.40m Good increase for Alita today Alita (2 days out) Midnight - 1.45m OD - 10.6m (36.77%) (66523 shows) Sat - 3.85m Sun - 1.87m OD PS of some other movies 2 days out Venom - 24.75m (102995 shows) Black Panther - 19.2m (55026 shows) Spiderman Homecoming - 13.75m Ant Man 2 - 15.42m (79765 shows) Bumblebee - 13.53m (107029 shows) Aquaman - 13.08m (86403 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 9.3m Jump today is inline with most of the above movies. Show count still lags behind almost all of them (considerably behind some recent movies like Bumblebee and Venom). Midnight/Sat/Sun PS is also at this point behind all of the movies listed above. Based on todays data I'll say Ps heading to around 30m and an OW of high 40's to low 50's. Of course ratings matter a lot here and if ratings are great then it can go as high as high 60's to low 70's but if ratings are bad or average then mid 40's could also happen. But looking at audience ratings on RT and Cinemascore, I think the ratings are gonna be good. Douban already has ratings out and it is decent. 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 (edited) On 2/15/2019 at 10:03 PM, POTUS 2020 said: i concur PS at 4.08. Should increase roughly (douban rating can affect this) S 25% 5.1m S 25% 6.4 M 35% 8.6 T 40% 12 W 40% 16.9 Th 75% 29.5m Final PS Average PSm 3.5. Good/bad Maoyan rating can boost it to 4 or drop it to 3 OD 103m Fri Multi average is 3.3. Again rating can drop it under 3 or well over 4 OW 340m/$50.3m If its poorly received all 3 factors can be affected by 10% or more. PS= 25 PSm =3 FriM= 3 and its just 225m/$33m or the opposite like BBee where it was looking low $40s OW but a good rating pushed the PSm to 4 and the FriM to 3.67 and $59m OW 12 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Alita (2 days out) Midnight - 1.45m OD - 10.6m (36.77%) (66523 shows) Sat - 3.85m Sun - 1.87m Based on todays data I'll say Ps heading to around 30m and an OW of high 40's to low 50's. Of course ratings matter a lot here and if ratings are great then it can go as high as high 60's to low 70's but if ratings are bad or average then mid 40's could also happen. But looking at audience ratings on RT and Cinemascore, I think the ratings are gonna be good. Douban already has ratings out and it is decent. The daily gains lagged a bit Sat-Tues but its on course to exceed 55% today. 80-100% expected tomorrow. 30-32m PS will happen. The question now is will the PSm be 3.3, 4 or 5 or more which happened a few times Like you I'm still sticking with $50m OW as the likely outcome. but low 40s to 70s can happen Its up to 89k shows, its probably lagging because the CNY holdovers will demand a decent amount of shows still. It will have less than 40% of shows whereas most others have 40-50% Edited February 20, 2019 by POTUS 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firepower Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 What's up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Alita (2 days out) Midnight - 1.45m OD - 10.6m (36.77%) (66523 shows) Sat - 3.85m Sun - 1.87m OD PS of some other movies 2 days out Venom - 24.75m (102995 shows) Black Panther - 19.2m (55026 shows) Spiderman Homecoming - 13.75m Ant Man 2 - 15.42m (79765 shows) Bumblebee - 13.53m (107029 shows) Aquaman - 13.08m (86403 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 9.3m Alita (1 days out) Midnight - 2.18m OD - 16.73m (57.83%) (96496 shows) Sat - 6.58m Sun - 2.93m OD PS of some other movies 1 days out Venom - 34.09m (126049 shows) Black Panther - 26.78m (73969 shows) Ant Man 2 - 23.68m (106251 shows) Spiderman Homecoming - 20m Aquaman - 19.6m (118514 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 15m Great jump today in PS as well as Show count. Bodes well for a big increase tomorrow as well. Jump tomorrow could be in the 80-95% range giving a final PS of 30-32.5. OW could have a range of 45 at the low end to 75 at the extreme high end. Obviously OW will be somewhere in the middle so I am gonna go with mid 50's as the likely opening. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said: Alita (1 days out) Midnight - 2.18m OD - 16.73m (57.83%) (96496 shows) Sat - 6.58m Sun - 2.93m OD PS of some other movies 1 days out Venom - 34.09m (126049 shows) Black Panther - 26.78m (73969 shows) Ant Man 2 - 23.68m (106251 shows) Spiderman Homecoming - 20m Aquaman - 19.6m (118514 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 15m Great jump today in PS as well as Show count. Bodes well for a big increase tomorrow as well. Jump tomorrow could be in the 80-95% range giving a final PS of 30-32.5. OW could have a range of 45 at the low end to 75 at the extreme high end. Obviously OW will be somewhere in the middle so I am gonna go with mid 50's as the likely opening. Final pre sale shall be around ¥30-32mn, mostly will go for ¥110-120mn opening day. Assuming that initial 7.5 Douban score, Maoyan score shall be around 8.9-9.1. That shall give it, ¥380-420mn weekend, $56-63mn, similar to that of Bumble Bee. In fact, the best comp IMO at this moment is Bumble Bee and we might see a run close to ¥1 Billion afterall, that would be $145-150mn Approx. Bumble Bee did ¥1145 mn or $168,269,166. Edit: Just checked, Alita is leading Bumble Bee in presales by a bit. That's interesting. Edited February 20, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop54 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Go Alita Go! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Alita Final opening day PS ¥31.4mn Opening day shall be ¥118-125mn IMO. That in dollars is $17.5-18.5mn. Weekend ¥425mn IMO i.e. $63.25mn. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firepower Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 What's up with Maoyan score? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Alita Final opening day PS ¥31.4mn Opening day shall be ¥118-125mn IMO. That in dollars is $17.5-18.5mn. Weekend ¥425mn IMO i.e. $63.25mn. OD PS ended at 2AM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Alita (1 days out) Midnight - 2.18m OD - 16.73m (57.83%) (96496 shows) Sat - 6.58m Sun - 2.93m OD PS of some other movies 1 days out Venom - 34.09m (126049 shows) Black Panther - 26.78m (73969 shows) Ant Man 2 - 23.68m (106251 shows) Spiderman Homecoming - 20m Aquaman - 19.6m (118514 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 15m Alita (Final) OD - 33.5m (100%) (13316 shows) Sat - 12.24m Sun - 4.82m Final OD PS of some other movies Venom - 60.1m (155860 shows) Ant Man 2 - 46.6m (141372 shows) Black Panther - 45.5m Spiderman Homecoming - 36m Aquaman - 35.04m (156162 shows) Guardians of the galaxy 2 - 28.45m Great final jump today. Of the movies I have tracked only Justice League and Thor Ragnarok jumped similar amount and only 1 movie (The Mummy) jumped more than 100%. Show count is comparatively lower but that is due to TWE still going strong and taking up a lot of screens. Can hit 60m OW USD with average weekend multiplier. Rating so far on Douban remains decent. 60 +/- 3 million could happen. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 CM in 10 days, PS should be starting very soon right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 8 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: CM in 10 days, PS should be starting very soon right? It should. Very rare to start just 7 days out. HTTYD3 PS will clear 4m tonight and are on track to reach 10-12m expect 35-45m OD 180-200m/$30m OW. $70m+ total possible. It should not have a big impact on Alita. HTTYD2 opened on a summer thursday. Aug 14, 2014 Th 35m Fr 33 Sa 50 Su 47 OW 130m/$21m It legged out to 402m/$64m with summer weekday help 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 CM presales starting now! Any good comparisons? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 http://piaofang.maoyan.com/dashboard?date=2019-03-08&movieId=341139 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 hours ago, LeoC said: CM presales starting now! Any good comparisons? Too early to tell. 300k PS with 13k shows. It should get over 1m quickly. We should have an Idea by Friday nite. Probably best to compare to WW.at some point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
