druv10 Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 1 minute ago, TalismanRing said: Well, they were off a bit on MN (closer to $27m) and PS which are now $115m and going. That was Gavin's number but it didn't make sense since it was already close $21M by then and we still had 6 hrs until midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Not that it matter, Maoyan forecast 548 400 440 Final 3500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: I started this PS tracking in 2015, I'll determine the final time😎😋 3am 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rishijoesanu Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Not that it matter, Maoyan forecast 548 400 440 Final 3500 They probably have an algorithm for this kind of thing right? How accurate has it been in the past? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 (edited) On 4/8/2016 at 11:38 AM, POTUS 2020 said: Im going to track JB and CA3 to see if we can find a multi. Ill keep each movie in one post and edit to make it more accessible. Jungle Book OD April 15, 2016 Maoyan PS 0000 F 4/8. 1.10m 0000 S 4/9 1.33 +20% 0000 S 4/10 1.86 +40% 0000 M 4/11 2.48 +33% 0000 T 4/12 3.67 +50% 0000 W 4/13 5.86 +67% 0000 T 4/14 9.76 +67% 0000 F 4/15 19.10 +96% Midnight OD 0900 F 4/15 20.00 + 5% Morning OD OD Total 77.8m PS Multi 4.1 x 00:00 PS OW Total 325.0m Total. 980.0m OD Multi. 8.74 OW Multi 3.03 50-66% increases in the final days followed by a 100% increase on the last day is a typical trend. The 4.1 PS multi is an outlier. Most fall between 2.5-3.0 blast from the past. The birth of the PSm I wanted to keep the pages down by keeping it in one post to find it easier. Then we had a 20 page Indian discussion The first 50 pages took a year The last 50 took 2 weeks Edited April 23, 2019 by POTUS 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Just now, rishijoesanu said: They probably have an algorithm for this kind of thing right? How accurate has it been in the past? Not at all. Either too high or too low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Guess it's time to move over to the box office thread 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said: Guess it's time to move over to the box office thread yup. Ill post 3am final chart in this box Let all move over. No more chatting, here any way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said: Good news MN adding 4.4m to 172.3m. OD up to 243.8 Bad news, Maoyan released a rating already 8.1 Im dropping my weekend forecast to $240m. Lower the floor to $225m lol I saw your post as soon as you posted. Knew you were trolling. Thought I should post and clarify thus. But then thought let it run, would be fun to see people freak out 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 16 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Detective Pikachu (17 days out) Midnight - 300 Yuan OD - 53.9k (2625 shows) Sat - 32.4k Sun - 30k Detective Pikachu (16 days out) Midnight - 3.6k OD - 130k (+141%) (4971 shows) Sat - 50.4k Sun - 40.3k As I said yesterday gonna be a slow week for PS most likely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 https://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/248172/premierebox Opening day final pre-sales ¥252mn on 217,446 shows. Last day added ¥66.99mn and 21,815 shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 (edited) 3AM Final 75m PS for day 2, a thursday. Impressive. Day 2 PS usually doubles on OD. 150m? really impressive EG IW PS MN %gain OD gain % gain Shows MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows Th Fri 0.4 6.5 Sa 1.3 0.9 202.3% 11.0 Su 2.0 0.7 53.8% 16.0 Mo 3.3 1.3 62.5% 22.0 Tu 4.6 1.4 41.5% 27.9 We 5.6 8.5 3.9 84.8% 44.4 Th 7.8 14.0% 14.6 6.1 71.8% 54.6 Fr 53.5 37.2 37.2 90.0 9.0 14.7% 18.5 3.9 26.5% 59.2 Sa 66.0 23.4% 65.7 28.5 76.6% 120.0 10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0 Su 80.0 21.2% 79.2 13.5 20.5% 130.0 11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0 Mo 82.0 2.5% 92.0 12.8 16.2% 135.2 11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7 Tu 84.9 3.5% 102.5 10.5 11.4% 141.5 12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8 We 93.5 10.1% 113.0 10.5 10.2% 146.0 15.0 17.2% 43.1 9.4 27.9% 79.7 Th 104.4 11.7% 126.5 13.5 11.9% 153.4 16.6 10.7% 50.4 7.3 16.9% 86.9 Fr 109.2 4.6% 138.5 12.0 9.5% 160.0 17.9 7.8% 58.2 7.8 15.5% 93.1 Sa 113.0 3.5% 148.0 9.5 6.9% 167.0 19.3 7.8% 65.8 7.6 13.1% 97.0 Su 117.5 4.0% 160.5 12.5 8.4% 173.0 20.9 8.3% 75.3 9.5 14.4% 100.5 Mo 128.2 9.1% 185.0 24.5 15.3% 195.5 22.8 9.1% 88.9 13.6 18.1% 112.8 Tu 179.0 39.6% 262.0 77.0 41.6% 218.0 25.8 13.2% 107.4 18.5 20.8% 133.6 We 30.6 18.6% 129.0 21.6 20.1% 154.6 Th 59.5 94.4% 182.0 53.0 41.1% 178.0 OD BO 180.0 488.0 86.3% 223.0 59.5 387.0 112.6% 182.0 Multi 1.86 2.13 3day 5day 3 day 5day PS m OD OD m OW OW OW m Total OD $ OW $ OW$ Total $ XR EG Proj 1.86 488 2.58 1260 2030 2.67 3358 73 188 302 500 6.72 IW 2.12 387 3.28 1271 1463 1.88 2390 61 201 231 376 6.36 Edited April 23, 2019 by POTUS 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Presales looking to finish with 262m. A 41% jump from yesterday's figure (185m), which coincidentally is the same jump IW had (129m to 182m), but given the higher base is really impressive. IW added 200m+ during the day. That should be the bare minimum EG should add. Will be interesting to see how close to 500m it can get. 500m would require 1.91x multiplier, which isn't impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 (edited) Avengers: Endgame (Final) OD - 263.37 (218,092 shows) Thu - 75.66 Fri - 97.75 Sat - 118.94 Sun - 29.60 Not much remains to be said about its PS run that hasn't been said by the multiple people. No superlative or hyperbole is enough to describe it. Predicting its OW is proving to be the most difficult it has ever been for a movie. I tried looking at AoU (It released on a Tuesday hence why) and other comps like presale percentages but nothing gives any sensible numbers. They are either too high or too low. But I think on the low end 265m should happen. On the high end it could end up with more than 300 but that would require an amazing rating and incredible WOM. For now I will go with 280-290m OW. Though I hope I end up being wrong and those saying 300m and above turn out to be right. Edited April 23, 2019 by ZeeSoh updated after seeing the ratings 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Just now, ZeeSoh said: Avengers: Endgame (Final) OD - 262.5 (217,583 shows) Thu - 75.02 Fri - 97.00 Sat - 118.24 Sun - 29.44 Not much remains to be said about its PS run that hasn't been said by the multiple people. No superlative or hyperbole is enough to describe it. Predicting its OW is proving to be the most difficult it has ever been for a movie. I tried looking at AoU (It released on a Tuesday hence why) and other comps like presale percentages but nothing gives any sensible numbers. They are either too high or too low. But I think on the low end 265m should happen. On the high end it could end up with more than 300 but that would require an amazing rating and incredible WOM. For now I will go with 275-280m OW. Though I hope I end up being wrong and those saying 300m and above turn out to be right. An amazing rating like 9.3 on Douban? 🤯 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: An amazing rating like 9.3 on Douban? 🤯 Holy crap I did not see that. It's inflated right now and will come down but wow thats a huge opening! And yes if the movie is that amazing and the WoM that good, then yes it could go 300 or above 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nerfy Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Do we have that pre-sale line graph with the final numbers? I think it ended at 774M? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ledmonkey96 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, Nerfy said: Do we have that pre-sale line graph with the final numbers? I think it ended at 774M? So close to doubling the old record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 30 minutes ago, Nerfy said: Do we have that pre-sale line graph with the final numbers? I think it ended at 774M? Just wait 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 4 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...