charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: According to official BO system, Fri pre-sale looks like Mulan - 11M 800 - 9M it would be interesting to see who win the daily box office Maoyan gap is huge. 14 and 6. Dengata is 12 and 6. I think Maoyan is overshooting Maoyan. At 12 perhaps 35mn OD. 800 from 6 should easily do 45mn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Seems like initial sales may be pushed by actress fan base in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: According to official BO system, Fri pre-sale looks like Mulan - 11M 800 - 9M it would be interesting to see who win the daily box office if it’s so close, definitely 800 will win. New film opening always have lower PSM, unless Mulan behaves more like an old film due to the piracy.. Anyway the impact of piracy is obvious and extremely detrimental. I searched Mulan in Chinese on weibo and cannot go pass 3 posts without seeing 1 post showing screenshot of the film on their tv / smart phone; with captions of their review... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbruglia Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) x moved to general thread. Edited September 10, 2020 by imbruglia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Would be pretty funny if this makes less than Tenet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Would be pretty funny if this makes less than Tenet. with the currrent presales plus piracy. It will take a small miracle for it to beat Tenet OD and OW. let’s hope Disney learns a lesson here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Mulan - 11.56M 800 - 9.53M via official bo system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnale101 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 With mulan getting such shit score avatar should enough to beat endgame lets see pre sales Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 When's Monster Hunter starting presales? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Pre-sales started for Wonder Woman 1984. Not as strong as MCU films, but can say par Aquaman. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) Wonder Woman 1984 T-8 Days Midnight - ¥0.24mn on 2543 shows Friday - ¥0.80mn (+¥0.61mn) on 33k shows Saturday - ¥0.24mn (+¥0.19mn) on 15k shows Sunday - ¥0.06mn (+0.03mn) on 12.5k shows Total - ¥1.34mn (+¥0.83mn) Comps They don't mean much this far out. May start making some sense by T-4 days perhaps. 15% of Spider-man: Far From Home T-8 Days (3 days of Sale) - ¥34mn Opening Day 17.5% of Venom T-8 Days (5 days of Sale) - ¥39mn OD 47% of Aquaman T-7 Days (1 day of Sale) - ¥74mn OD 78% of TENET T-7 Days (1 day of Sale) - ¥44mn OD The sales aren't showing any rush for now as such. Of course these early numbers don't mean as much as the Wednesday and Thursday before release do, but still a big opener CBM will show some rush. Let's see how it pick up in coming days. If I have to guess, less than ¥100mn OD may be for sure. Don't see it crossing TENET in first weekend as of now as @Gavin Feng said. Any specific reason for lower rush Gavin? Projections Take with huge grain of salt. Spoiler Time Wonder Woman 1984 Aquaman Gross Change Gross Change T-9 Days ¥0.19 T-8 Days ¥0.80 ¥0.61 T-7 Days ¥1.45 ¥0.65 ¥1.66 T-6 Days ¥2.14 ¥0.69 ¥5.13 ¥3.47 T-5 Days ¥2.77 ¥0.64 ¥6.56 ¥1.43 T-4 Days ¥3.62 ¥0.85 ¥8.17 ¥1.61 T-3 Days ¥5.04 ¥1.42 ¥9.99 ¥1.82 T-2 Days ¥7.34 ¥2.30 ¥13.16 ¥3.17 T-1 Days ¥11.73 ¥4.39 ¥19.46 ¥6.30 T-0 Days ¥20.22 ¥8.49 ¥33.79 ¥14.33 OD ¥65.71 ¥156.82 PSm 3.25 4.64 Edited December 10, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 How's The Rescue doing in presales? Maybe that might answer why WW84's presales are weak atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: How's The Rescue doing in presales? Maybe that might answer why WW84's presales are weak atm. That shouldn't be. Rescue is #1 on Friday but those numbers are fake. On Saturday WW84 is at top. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) Ahhh, so nice to have some concrete numbers for a blockbuster again. I would normally track WW84 in SK, but my impression is that the market is back to being pretty covid impacted, unlike China and Japan. I wonder if some people in China are just waiting for the HD rips on the 25th. If so it makes the whole hybrid model very tough, for WB and anyone else who tries it. Edited December 9, 2020 by WandaLegion 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said: I wonder if some people in China are just waiting for the HD rips on the 25th. If so it makes the whole hybrid model very tough, for WB and anyone else who tries it. That is one big factor. But then I see, in years we have seen Chinese lapping up re-releases like new releases. Harry Potter pre-sales were big. Spirited Away release last year had really good pre-sales. All of those films have Blu Rays out for years. Been 8 years, but Titanic did over $100mn in re-release. So not sure if that factor is stopping even fans from rushing for tickets. That brings the question. Mulan, opened 55mn, which now looks HUGE after seeing WW84 initial advance, a week later it was bashed universally and HD rips were out. Just how much did Disney fucked up by not releasing it 2 weeks earlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I'm sure I can say WW84 is lower than my expectation after two days selling. I'm not making a conclusion on whether it means flop or not. But its pre-sale performance still doesn't show a trend that could lead to the pre-sale level of Aquaman -- remember the James Wan's title was very "weak" in advance ticket sale in terms of most ¥1 billion-plus Hollywood blockbusters. I was hoping WW84 would be a front-loaded movie -- strong pre-sale and opening with average legs. If current trend continues, the most likely way it still could hit my forecast of $140-160M lifetime is having a long-term run with 9.4+ audience score on Maoyan. I don't always expect that miracle for Hollywood titles, especially crazy competitions coming later. I think it deserve better, and it still has some time to speed up. title final pre-sale opening lifetime AQM ¥65M ¥652M ¥2,013M Tenet ¥38M ¥205M ¥456M TENET didn't start selling until 7 days before debut. WW84 might not be much higher than TENET for final pre-sale if it keeps current trend. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 From progress so far today, I would guess 1.35 for OD at end of today and ~20 for final OS PS. But it’s still fairly early, maybe next few days will overperform. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 (edited) by the way(I mean this is actually the whole point of this DEC), A Little Red Flower already hit ¥1M in pre-sale after 3~4 hours selling. It would top WW84 in another few hours and top any other DEC titles before next week. Yes, a drama on Dec.31 beat others on Dec.25 & Dec.18. Edited December 10, 2020 by Gavin Feng 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, WandaLegion said: From progress so far today, I would guess 1.35 for OD at end of today and ~20 for final OS PS. But it’s still fairly early, maybe next few days will overperform. That's what I hope right now. If audience don't even go to see WW84, I don't know which 2021 WB title could attract them to go cinema. Free HD piracies are waving and say hello. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 (edited) The problem is that for non fanbase films or family/kids heavy films we may go with narrative like, "lets see if it pick up". But for a CBMs pre-sales rush can be seen from day one, especially for something like WW which was expected to do $150mn range. So I am not sure how much pick up can we really expect. The one reason could be that may be people didn't know advance is open, that has happened with few films, but after two days, there should be some pick up in pace. Edited December 10, 2020 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...