Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Gavin Feng]

9 minutes ago, Wonder89 said:

How was the presales compared to the first Wonder Woman movie?

first WW sold tickets later(like 7-day before opening), but the speed looked good. WW84 should be higher unless the trend never go better. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

They predicted ¥1.2 billion lifetime for A Little Red Flower. But I've heard better numbers from those data analysts since it started selling. The most ridiculous prediction I've heard so far is $150M 3-day weekend with 6 hours THU previews. 

It's not really hard if film has buzz and WoM is good.

 

New Year Eve Previews.

New Year Day

Saturday

Sunday

 

They should have gone for full release on 31st I guess.

 

Last year New Year Eve grossed 336mn, followed by 290mn on New Year Day. Pre-sales are much higher than Adoring.  Adoring was 5.8mn on 26k shows 8 days out, this will touch 5mn on 22k shows 21 days out. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[cax16]

Thanks for the number guys, disappointed they’re so low. I thought for sure ww84 would blow by the first one in China but I’m not so sure anymore. 

[Legion Again]

Hollywood didn’t grow that much here since 2017, Maoyan of Wonder Woman 1 was just okay, and there will clearly be no “justice league boost,” so for years I’ve been expecting about 80-120M for WW84 here. Until reviews are out, can always hope it will pull a Venom/Aquaman though.

[charlie Jatinder]

2019 was worst year for Hollywood if you remove MCU. MCU is the only brand growing some growth. We saw many sequels doing same or barely growing.

 

Local cinema growing every year. If Hollywood go streaming, they are killing/writing off Asia. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[cax16]

I should probably clarify, I didn’t think it would make like 150-180m, I thought it would at least make more then the first. Poor choice of wording by me, but thanks for the clarification about the market. While I check in with what’s going on in here you guys keep track of trends and stuff which I don’t. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by cax16

[Wonder89]

It is strange, WW84 looks better that The rescue in Saturday and Sunday, but The rescue as a lot of presales on friday

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I should probably clarify, I didn’t think it would make like 150-180m, I thought it would at least make more then the first. Poor choice of wording by me, but thanks for the clarification about the market. While I check in with what’s going on in here you guys keep track of trends and stuff which I don’t. 

It wouldn't have been a surprise if it did 150-180 tho. WW has grown as Superhero in India unlike the first film, and I believe that will be the case throughout Asia.

[cax16]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It wouldn't have been a surprise if it did 150-180 tho. WW has grown as Superhero in India unlike the first film, and I believe that will be the case throughout Asia.

Again, you guys know more then me. I was just expecting(hoping I guess lol )this to at least increase in China, and most places overseas. Not by a huge amount cause the first one did just over 400m internationally so I was hoping for over 500m this time (in normal times, not covid times). 

[charlie Jatinder]

 Wonder Woman 1984 T-7 Days

 

Midnight -  ¥0.35mn (+¥0.11mn) on 2.9k shows

Friday - ¥1.28mn (+¥0.48mn) on 39k shows

Saturday - ¥0.49mn (+¥0.25mn) on 17k shows

Sunday - ¥0.13mn (+0.07mn) on 14k shows

 

Total - ¥2.25mn (+¥0.91mn)

 

Average ordinary day. Could have shown bigger growth. Let's see how it pick on Monday. Friday and Saturday before release are usually low days, Sunday starts the boost and Monday we see first major boost to sales which built up till Thursday blow up. Looking more and more like 50-70mn OD than 100mn, which was least to expect.

 

First film OD was 74mn from final pre-sale of 18.5mn.

 

Comps

 

They don't mean much this far out. May start making some sense by T-4 days perhaps.

 

18% of Spider-man: Far From Home T-7 Days (4 days of Sale) - ¥40mn Opening Day

20% of Venom T-7 Days (6 days of Sale) - ¥45mn OD

59% of Dark Phoenix T-7 Days (6 days of Sale) - ¥47mn OD (Holiday boosted Thursday)

83% of Shazam T-7 Days (3 days of Sale) - ¥80mn OD (Holiday boosted OD)

 

129% of TENET T-7 Days (1 days of Sale) - ¥72mn OD

58% of TENET T-6 Days (2 days of Sale) - ¥33mn OD

 

Projections

 

Take with huge grain of salt.

Spoiler

Time	WW84		Shazam		Dark Phoenix
	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change
T-14 Days					¥0.10
T-13 Days					¥0.50	400.00%
T-12 Days					¥0.75	50.00%
T-11 Days					¥0.98	30.67%
T-10 Days					¥1.14	16.33%
T-9 Days	¥0.19		¥0.38		¥1.40	22.81%
T-8 Days	¥0.80	321.05%	¥1.20	215.79%	¥1.66	18.57%
T-7 Days	¥1.28	60.00%	¥1.54	28.33%	¥2.19	31.93%
T-6 Days	¥1.79	40.00%	¥2.01	30.52%	¥2.50	14.16%
T-5 Days	¥2.24	25.00%	¥2.43	20.90%	¥3.12	24.80%
T-4 Days	¥2.91	30.00%	¥3.01	23.87%	¥3.80	21.79%
T-3 Days	¥4.37	50.00%	¥4.34	44.19%	¥4.72	24.21%
T-2 Days	¥6.12	40.00%	¥6.04	39.17%	¥6.89	45.97%
T-1 Days	¥9.17	50.00%	¥9.47	56.79%	¥10.01	45.28%
T-0 Days	¥16.51	80.00%	¥23.50	148.15%	¥21.59	115.68%
OD	¥57.79		¥97.23		¥80.19
PSm	3.50		4.14		3.71

 

 

Bonus

 

Time	WW84		Wonder Woman
	Gross	Change	Gross	Change
T-14 Days
T-13 Days
T-12 Days
T-11 Days
T-10 Days
T-9 Days	¥0.19
T-8 Days	¥0.80	321.05%
T-7 Days	¥1.28	60.00%
T-6 Days	¥1.79	40.00%	¥0.84
T-5 Days	¥2.24	25.00%	¥1.63	94.05%
T-4 Days	¥2.91	30.00%	¥2.21	35.58%
T-3 Days	¥4.37	50.00%	¥3.02	36.65%
T-2 Days	¥6.12	40.00%	¥4.39	45.36%
T-1 Days	¥9.17	50.00%	¥8.13	85.19%
T-0 Days	¥16.51	80.00%	¥18.46	127.06%
OD	¥57.79		¥74.01
PSm	3.50		4.01

 

 

 

Spoiler

In contrast this is how Spider-man films presales were.

 

Time	Spider-man: Far From Home		Spider-Man: Homecoming
	Gross	Change	Gross	Change
T-13 Days			¥0.98
T-12 Days			¥1.15	17.35%
T-11 Days			¥1.34	16.52%
T-10 Days	¥1.03		¥1.78	32.84%
T-9 Days	¥3.49	240.49%	¥2.43	36.52%
T-8 Days	¥5.21	49.20%	¥3.00	23.46%
T-7 Days	¥7.15	37.32%	¥3.78	26.00%
T-6 Days	¥9.21	28.81%	¥4.77	26.19%
T-5 Days	¥11.11	20.63%	¥5.99	25.58%
T-4 Days	¥13.65	22.86%	¥7.59	26.71%
T-3 Days	¥17.88	30.99%	¥9.92	30.70%
T-2 Days	¥24.75	38.42%	¥13.64	37.50%
T-1 Days	¥37.87	53.01%	¥19.11	40.10%
T-0 Days	¥63.25	67.02%	¥35.47	85.61%
OD	¥224.00		¥134.63
PSm	3.54		3.80

 

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[meridan]

6 hours ago, Wonder89 said:

So sad, bye bye WW3

Won't affect WW3 being made, but the lack of sales growth from the first to the second in China shows that the 3rd film should not expect big numbers from this market. 

[lorddemaxus]

So, pretty much all the movie has left is WoM. Doubt it's going to be good enough to help the movie tbh. Outside of Aquaman, every other recent DC release had mediocre to negative WoM.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Is there any possibility that many people are just waiting to pirate it a week later? I didn't expect huge growth but this seems very low. 

[cax16]

This sucks also cause I can’t even watch the movie here in Canada so I was at least hoping to get a decent run to watch here lol, can’t have anything nice this year. 

[Gavin Feng]

now it's lower than TENET at the same point

[charlie Jatinder]

Seems like day will end around 1.75-1.8mn.

[charlie Jatinder]

Ok A Little Red Flower pre-sales are insane. Endgame level insane for 20 days out.

 

EG was 37mn OD 11 days out.

Jiang Ziya was 7mn on 56k shows 8 days out. 

That Valentines day film Love You Forever which opened 278mn with 50% capacity limit was 5.3mn on 23k shows 14 days out.

 

Looking at some CNY films.

Crazy Alien was 29mn on 38k shows 20 days out after 6 days of sale. After 2 days it was 7.45mn on 20k shows. 

 

This was 6mn on 24k shows 20 days out and now 7.5mn with 10 hours of 2nd day to go. I don't see how it don't open to 400mn. 

 

Edit: Not Endgame level 😛

Edit 2: But wait, @Gavin Feng told that Thursday are only 6 hour previews. So this will most likely just reach its capacity on Thursday. 400mn might not be logistically possible on 31st. @Gavin Feng are the 6 hours you mean are from 6PM or 12AM to 6AM Friday which is technically counted in Thursday.

Edited December 11, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[meridan]

A lot of the data that gets posted here makes no sense to me. What does WW84 look like it's going to do opening weekend? How bad is it?

Edited December 11, 2020 by meridan

[Legion Again]

I think it could get to 1.9 today. Not a big increase, but fine and maybe even a bit better than expected if so.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, meridan said:

Imagine you are trailing behind Dark Phoenix.

 

That bad.

Spoiler

 

The opening day compared few of random comparisons and probable Opening day if it remain at that pace.

Quote

18% of Spider-man: Far From Home T-7 Days (4 days of Sale) - ¥40mn Opening Day

20% of Venom T-7 Days (6 days of Sale) - ¥45mn OD

59% of Dark Phoenix T-7 Days (6 days of Sale) - ¥47mn OD (Holiday boosted Thursday)

83% of Shazam T-7 Days (3 days of Sale) - ¥80mn OD (Holiday boosted OD)

 

129% of TENET T-7 Days (1 days of Sale) - ¥72mn OD

58% of TENET T-6 Days (2 days of Sale) - ¥33mn OD

$1=¥6.6 Approx.
 

So very bad.

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by charlie Jatinder