Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, meridan said:

The surprising thing about the first movie is that it had a 2.4x multiplier in China. Most CBM movies in China end up with a 1.8x-2.1x multiplier. 

The OD of WW was also holiday boosted so multiplier was better than what stats will tell.

[cax16]

2 minutes ago, meridan said:

The surprising thing about the first movie is that it had a 2.4x multiplier in China. Most CBM movies in China end up with a 1.8x-2.1x multiplier. 

Could be the time of the year it was released, I can’t say cause I’m not familiar with the market here. I was told ratings weren’t that good for the first film also so it’s not like there would be huge anticipation or anything.

 

 

[Legion Again]

Being summer and not a sequel helped the first ones legs, though they were indeed pretty solid even considering both factors.   
 

If this opens at 25 ends at 50 it would be a bummer relative to my expectations from a month ago, but also not really outside the range of a normal sequel drop adjusted for HW market share. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by WandaLegion

[charlie Jatinder]

The absolute low is perhaps $20mn weekend right. May be $35mn full run.

[cax16]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The absolute low is perhaps $20mn weekend right. May be $35mn full run.

That’s so bad lol, but I guess it’s better it happens this way then it happening if all the theatres were open worldwide, making this little in China would of for sure made an increase overseas very hard. 

[Krissykins]

Yeh let’s not pretend this is happening under normal circumstances. 
 

The comparisons are useless because those films weren’t released during a pandemic or available online the following week. 

[cax16]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh let’s not pretend this is happening under normal circumstances. 
 

The comparisons are useless because those films weren’t released during a pandemic or available online the following week. 

The China box office has been fine, so that’s not really a factor. The online thing is the another thing altogether and we’ll probably never know if that hurt WW in China or just no interest(if the box office is very low). 

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, cax16 said:

The China box office has been fine, so that’s not really a factor. The online thing is the another thing altogether and we’ll probably never know if that hurt WW in China or just no interest(if the box office is very low). 

I think we all know piracy is a huge factor, especially in China. 
 

just saying “interest is low” is pretty naive in 2020. Under usual circumstances there would have been a promo tour and premiere for a start. 
 

Recently, Hollywood titles haven’t been performing well full stop. 

[cax16]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think we all know piracy is a huge factor, especially in China. 
 

just saying “interest is low” is pretty naive in 2020. Under usual circumstances there would have been a promo tour and premiere for a start. 
 

Recently, Hollywood titles haven’t been performing well full stop. 

I don’t really know tbh, I’m not an expert on the market so others can give input.

 

Seems like the only Hollywood movies that make more for sequels is marvel movies from What others have said.

 

I’ve said already that I’m really disappointed in these numbers and was hoping ww84 would increase but that doesn’t look to be in the cards.

Edited December 14, 2020 by cax16

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Being summer and not a sequel helped the first ones legs, though they were indeed pretty solid even considering both factors.   
 

If this opens at 25 ends at 50 it would be a bummer relative to my expectations from a month ago, but also not really outside the range of a normal sequel drop adjusted for HW market share. 

I mean TFA had "solid" legs in China despite low scores, and we saw what happened there. Ratings seem to be better indicators of reception than legs. 

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh let’s not pretend this is happening under normal circumstances. 
 

The comparisons are useless because those films weren’t released during a pandemic or available online the following week. 

The latter could be a real factor, but Chinese box office isn’t functionally “during a pandemic” and hasn’t been for months. It’s pretty much business as normal, with lighter than usual completion.

[meridan]

Croods 2 so far has made $46.1M in China. It will be really embarrassing if WW84 can't top that.

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, WandaLegion said:

The latter could be a real factor, but Chinese box office isn’t functionally “during a pandemic” and hasn’t been for months. It’s pretty much business as normal, with lighter than usual completion.

But a recent avoidance of any Hollywood films, no? 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

But a recent avoidance of any Hollywood films, no? 

It’s  very small sample size unfortunately. Maybe a little? But from TENET and Croods 2 I don’t really see an “anti-HW” effect at the moment. Maybe in a couple months we’ll conclude that the pandemic sharply diverted interest away from HW and toward locals.

[Menor the Destroyer]

There are a number of confounding factors with WW84. To be honest there seems to be a pandemic-driven lack of hype in the West (this isn't based on anything objective, just the impressions I've gotten) and I can imagine that bleeding over to international performances given that these usually aren't independent. As was pointed out, the marketing hasn't been at the level blockbusters usually get. Add to that the piracy factor. I think Black Widow will give a much better indication of how Hollywood performs in China in the future. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Menor

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, meridan said:

Croods 2 so far has made $46.1M in China. It will be really embarrassing if WW84 can't top that.

WW1 was less successful here than Croods 1. Was that embarrassing?

[meridan]

2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

WW1 was less successful here than Croods 1. Was that embarrassing?

Box Office Mojo says Croods 1 made $63,310,000 in China. WW made $90M. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, meridan said:

Box Office Mojo says Croods 1 made $63,310,000 in China. WW made $90M. 

Yes, and 90M in 2017 was a worse result than 63M in 2013. So if both saw a similar decline in strength of performance, WW84 would be a bit below Croods 2.

[xiazhi]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

But a recent avoidance of any Hollywood films, no? 

I don't see such a factor. Croods 2 performed just fine as an animated picture.

[Gavin Feng]

average ticket price of WW84 is around ¥45 at this point. No discounts like other Hollywood titles. Aquaman was around ¥39 two days before opening.