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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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5 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

IW has become Most want~to~see movie on maoyan, with 938k votes.

Ranger Solo is Not too far behind  with 2K.

Just out of curiosity, do we know what the record is for most want to see movie? Like a week before release?

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1 hour ago, The Mad Titan said:

Just out of curiosity, do we know what the record is for most want to see movie? Like a week before release?

at time of release

FF7  252k

FF8  321k

AOU 321k

CA3  568k

TF5  533k

WW2 401k

MH2 669k  Y547m OD

IW   947k  8 days out

 

 

 

Edited by POTUS
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4 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Wild thought, what if this makes more in China than domestic.

It should have to open to, at very least, $300m to do it. And maybe it would not be enough. On the other hand, what I would not rule out at all is China OW > DOM OW. Extremely tiny chance, but who knows...

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15 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Wild thought, what if this makes more in China than domestic.

 

That is going to be very, very hard.

 

It's going to have to perform Wolf Warrior 2-style holds which are going to be next to impossible. But the movie is very, very good and the Chinese should enjoy the movie greatly so... Who knows.

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35 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Wild thought, what if this makes more in China than domestic.

 

24 minutes ago, peludo said:

It should have to open to, at very least, $300m to do it. And maybe it would not be enough. On the other hand, what I would not rule out at all is China OW > DOM OW. Extremely tiny chance, but who knows...

OW is starting to look quite possible, not probable(yet), at beating domestic.  Total is doubtful

I looked at TF5 show count. I think IW will get 67% of total shows at 190k shows, 15% more than FF8 and TF5 which both got 67% at 165k shows. There are 15% more screens and showtimes this year.  

With the hype, want to see index and PS, IW really should do no less than 23%(15% more shows+8%XR) more than FF8. That puts it at $240m OW. Then there is plenty of room to have a higher PTA.

Upping my projection

$230-260m OW

Total could be 1.75-2.25x OW.  $400-600m. 

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15 minutes ago, Mrstickball said:

 

That is going to be very, very hard.

 

It's going to have to perform Wolf Warrior 2-style holds which are going to be next to impossible. But the movie is very, very good and the Chinese should enjoy the movie greatly so... Who knows.

I'm guessing it would require a Maoyan score above 9.5 to even have a chance at that. The original Avengers is at 8.8 and Ultron 8.6 currently.

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5 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

OW is starting to look quite possible, not probable(yet), at beating domestic.  Total is doubtful

I looked at TF5 show count. I think IW will get 67% of total shows at 190k shows, 15% more than FF8 and TF5 which both got 67% at 165k shows. There are 15% more screens and showtimes this year.  

With the hype, want to see index and PS, IW really should do no less than 23%(15% more shows+8%XR) more than FF8. That puts it at $240m OW. Then there is plenty of room to have a higher PTA.

Upping my projection

$230-260m OW

Total could be 1.75-2.25x OW.  $400-600m. 

I posted $600M China total before as a joke and now you're telling me it's possible :ohmyzod:

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7 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

OW is starting to look quite possible, not probable(yet), at beating domestic.  Total is doubtful

I looked at TF5 show count. I think IW will get 67% of total shows at 190k shows, 15% more than FF8 and TF5 which both got 67% at 165k shows. There are 15% more screens and showtimes this year.  

With the hype, want to see index and PS, IW really should do no less than 23%(15% more shows+8%XR) more than FF8. That puts it at $240m OW. Then there is plenty of room to have a higher PTA.

Upping my projection

$230-260m OW

Total could be 1.75-2.25x OW.  $400-600m. 

Holy Crap. I so wanna get on this hype train but I am restraining myself after what happened with BP. 

 

But if it hits 500 and dom hits 700 then Titanic is locked to be toasted

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1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Holy Crap. I so wanna get on this hype train but I am restraining myself after what happened with BP. 

 

But if it hits 500 and dom hits 700 then Titanic is locked to be toasted

What an achievement if that happens. I honestly didn't think we would see a non-Cameron film pass Titanic WW this decade after even TFA fell short.

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34 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

OW is starting to look quite possible, not probable(yet), at beating domestic.  Total is doubtful

I looked at TF5 show count. I think IW will get 67% of total shows at 190k shows, 15% more than FF8 and TF5 which both got 67% at 165k shows. There are 15% more screens and showtimes this year.  

With the hype, want to see index and PS, IW really should do no less than 23%(15% more shows+8%XR) more than FF8. That puts it at $240m OW. Then there is plenty of room to have a higher PTA.

Upping my projection

$230-260m OW

Total could be 1.75-2.25x OW.  $400-600m. 

I want the train to keep humming. Let’s get that $300 million OW!

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25 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Holy Crap. I so wanna get on this hype train but I am restraining myself after what happened with BP. 

 

But if it hits 500 and dom hits 700 then Titanic is locked to be toasted

Yeah the hype on BP got the PS up to a good number but that 8 rating took the wind out of it and finished with a SH 18 month low PS multi at 3.

we need a 9 to keep the numbers pumped through out the weekend

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1 minute ago, POTUS said:

Yeah the hype on BP got the PS up to a good number but that 8 rating took the wind out of it and finished with a SH 18 month low PS multi at 3.

we need a 9 to keep the numbers pumped through out the weekend

Was BP WOM worse in China than other Asian countries?

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Infinity War (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 15.02

OD - 43 (+28.2%)(79671 screens)

Sat - 26.77

Sun - 12.06

 

IW should overtake total PS of Black Panther as well as Spiderman by mid day tomorrow which would be 7.5 days ahead. Good increase today thanks in part to the the near 10% screen count increase. 200m OW is looking more and more likelier by the day. 

 

I think this has a good chance of crossing 200m in PS. Even 15% rise till Monday and then 20,25 and 55% the last 3 days will get it to 200. And if it gets there then I dont see how it misses 200m OW. 

 

But we got burned with BP so I will remain cautiously optimistic with this and see how the increases are over the weekend

 

 

Infinity War (7 days out)

 

Midnight - 16.48

OD - 50.2 (+16.75%)(86887 screens)

Sat - 31.4

Sun - 14.28

 

Still chugging along strongly. It has already overtaken the final PS of Black Panther and Spiderman with a week to spare. Saturday PS looking strong as well. 

 

It has also already exceeded in PS for Thursday previews what movies like BP/TR/SMH did on actual Thursday

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8 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Yeah the hype on BP got the PS up to a good number but that 8 rating took the wind out of it and finished with a SH 18 month low PS multi at 3.

we need a 9 to keep the numbers pumped through out the weekend

If TA1 is an 8.8 and AOU a 8.6, is be surprised if this was less than a 9.0

 

Especially given the WOM in similarly minded Asian markets. 

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