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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

By Olive, in China At The Box Office

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fmpro Global Phenomenon

fmpro

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, aabattery said:

O/U on IW China OW > DOM OW?  :Venom:

 If it keeps up this pace its not impossible. Buuuuut it could also be frontloaded as hell and “just” make 200 mill

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, fmpro said:

@POTUS needs to adjust his chart today. Because a huge increase is coming up today. Around double of what it has done the last few days

i put in 25% for today in case it slows. then reverted back to 15%. second chart is 20% daily

PS could go so high that the multi could drop under 2.5

 

 

  JttW2     WC         FF8           IW          
PS 1am OD %gain   MN %gain PS % gain   MN %gain OD gain % gain   MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows
Sa 12.7     9.2   8.8         2.5       9.0 14.0% 18.5 3.1 26.5% 59.2
Su 16.9 32.7%   11.0 19.6% 12.0 37.1%       5.4 2.9 116.0%   10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0
Mo 19.4 14.9%   13.0 18.2% 14.8 23.3%       8.3 2.9 53.7%   11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0
Tu 22.1 14.2%   14.9 14.6% 17.0 14.9%       11.4 3.1 37.3%   11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7
We 25.5 15.3%   16.0 7.4% 20.0 17.6%   5.0   14.5 3.1 27.2%   12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8
Th 29.1 14.1%   18.1 13.1% 23.0 15.0%   6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5%   13.9 8.6% 42.2 8.5 25.2% 76.0
Fr 33.3 14.4%   19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4%   8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2%   15.0 7.9% 48.5 6.3 14.9% proj
Sa 38.4 15.3%   21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7%   9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1%   16.2 8.0% 55.6 7.1 14.6% proj
Su 44.0 14.6%   22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0%   11.3 15.3% 39.6 6.6 20.0%   17.5 8.0% 64.0 8.4 15.1% proj
Mo 51.0 15.9%   23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6%   13.6 20.4% 48.0 8.4 21.2%   19.1 9.1% 74.0 10.0 15.6% proj
Tu 57.0 11.8%   25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8%   17.4 27.9% 63.0 15.0 31.3%   20.7 8.4% 85.0 11.0 14.9% proj
We 72.0 26.3%   27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2%   22.0 26.4% 84.0 21.0 33.3%   22.5 8.7% 98.0 13.0 15.3% proj
Th 88.8 23.3%   30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8%   27.0 22.7% 106.0 22.0 26.2%   25.0 11.1% 113.0 15.0 15.3% proj
Fr(OD) 140.0 57.7%   50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1%   62.0 129.6% 165.0 59.0 55.7%   57.0 128.0% 176.0 63.0 55.8% proj
OD BO 356.0 154.3%       251.5 162.0%   62.0   417.0   152.7%   57.0   443.5   152.0%  
Multi   2.54         2.62           2.52           2.52  
                                         
  OD OW   Total OD $ OW $ Total $                          
JttW2 356 777   1656 52 113 240                          
WC 251 819   1472 36 125 225                          
FF8 417 1352   2671 60 196 387                          
IW 444 1437   2730 70 227 432                          

 

I put today at 25%, not 30%. Dropped the rest of the days to 20%. The last day at 50%, close to WC, and dropped the multi to 2.25 and I get $263m  which is possible if only with 200k shows.  We have been thinking that FF7 and FF8 are the ceiling, but CBO has had a few locals over $500m in the last 2 years. Lots of possibilities here.

  JttW2     WC         FF8           IW          
PS 1am OD %gain   MN %gain PS % gain   MN %gain OD gain % gain   MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows
Sa 12.7     9.2   8.8         2.5       9.0 14.0% 18.5 3.1 26.5% 59.2
Su 16.9 32.7%   11.0 19.6% 12.0 37.1%       5.4 2.9 116.0%   10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0
Mo 19.4 14.9%   13.0 18.2% 14.8 23.3%       8.3 2.9 53.7%   11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0
Tu 22.1 14.2%   14.9 14.6% 17.0 14.9%       11.4 3.1 37.3%   11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7
We 25.5 15.3%   16.0 7.4% 20.0 17.6%   5.0   14.5 3.1 27.2%   12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8
Th 29.1 14.1%   18.1 13.1% 23.0 15.0%   6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5%   13.9 8.6% 42.2 8.5 25.2% 76.0
Fr 33.3 14.4%   19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4%   8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2%   15.0 7.9% 50.6 8.4 19.9% proj
Sa 38.4 15.3%   21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7%   9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1%   16.2 8.0% 61.0 10.4 20.6% proj
Su 44.0 14.6%   22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0%   11.3 15.3% 39.6 6.6 20.0%   17.5 8.0% 73.0 12.0 19.7% proj
Mo 51.0 15.9%   23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6%   13.6 20.4% 48.0 8.4 21.2%   19.1 9.1% 88.0 15.0 20.5% proj
Tu 57.0 11.8%   25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8%   17.4 27.9% 63.0 15.0 31.3%   20.7 8.4% 106.0 18.0 20.5% proj
We 72.0 26.3%   27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2%   22.0 26.4% 84.0 21.0 33.3%   22.5 8.7% 127.0 21.0 19.8% proj
Th 88.8 23.3%   30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8%   27.0 22.7% 106.0 22.0 26.2%   25.0 11.1% 152.0 25.0 19.7% proj
Fr(OD) 140.0 57.7%   50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1%   62.0 129.6% 165.0 59.0 55.7%   57.0 128.0% 228.0 76.0 50.0% proj
OD BO 356.0 154.3%       251.5 162.0%   62.0   417.0   152.7%   57.0   513.0   125.0%  
Multi   2.54         2.62           2.52           2.25  
                                         
  OD OW   Total OD $ OW $ Total $                          
JttW2 356 777   1656 52 113 240                          
WC 251 819   1472 36 125 225                          
FF8 417 1352   2671 60 196 387                          
IW 513 1662   3158 81 263 500                          

 

Edited by POTUS
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eXtacy Blockbuster

eXtacy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

  JttW2     WC         FF8           IW          
PS 1am OD %gain   MN %gain PS % gain   MN %gain OD gain % gain   MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows
Sa 12.7     9.2   8.8         2.5       9.0 14.0% 18.5 3.1 26.5% 59.2
Su 16.9 32.7%   11.0 19.6% 12.0 37.1%       5.4 2.9 116.0%   10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0
Mo 19.4 14.9%   13.0 18.2% 14.8 23.3%       8.3 2.9 53.7%   11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0
Tu 22.1 14.2%   14.9 14.6% 17.0 14.9%       11.4 3.1 37.3%   11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7
We 25.5 15.3%   16.0 7.4% 20.0 17.6%   5.0   14.5 3.1 27.2%   12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8
Th 29.1 14.1%   18.1 13.1% 23.0 15.0%   6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5%   13.9 8.6% 42.2 8.5 25.2% 76.0
Fr 33.3 14.4%   19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4%   8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2%   15.0 7.9% 50.6 8.4 19.9% proj
Sa 38.4 15.3%   21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7%   9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1%   16.2 8.0% 61.0 10.4 20.6% proj
Su 44.0 14.6%   22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0%   11.3 15.3% 39.6 6.6 20.0%   17.5 8.0% 73.0 12.0 19.7% proj
Mo 51.0 15.9%   23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6%   13.6 20.4% 48.0 8.4 21.2%   19.1 9.1% 88.0 15.0 20.5% proj
Tu 57.0 11.8%   25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8%   17.4 27.9% 63.0 15.0 31.3%   20.7 8.4% 106.0 18.0 20.5% proj
We 72.0 26.3%   27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2%   22.0 26.4% 84.0 21.0 33.3%   22.5 8.7% 127.0 21.0 19.8% proj
Th 88.8 23.3%   30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8%   27.0 22.7% 106.0 22.0 26.2%   25.0 11.1% 152.0 25.0 19.7% proj
Fr(OD) 140.0 57.7%   50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1%   62.0 129.6% 165.0 59.0 55.7%   57.0 128.0% 228.0 76.0 50.0% proj
OD BO 356.0 154.3%       251.5 162.0%   62.0   417.0   152.7%   57.0   513.0   125.0%  
Multi   2.54         2.62           2.52           2.25  
                                         
  OD OW   Total OD $ OW $ Total $                          
JttW2 356 777   1656 52 113 240                          
WC 251 819   1472 36 125 225                          
FF8 417 1352   2671 60 196 387                          
IW 513 1662   3158 81 263 500                          

 

 

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fmpro Global Phenomenon

fmpro

Posted
Posted

I agree @POTUS  we have something cooking here. But it needs biggest screencount possible. Then the sky is the limit

With this increase today im upping my range from 180-200 to 200-225 mill

 

If it increases 25-30% again tomorrow :ohmyzod:

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, aabattery said:

O/U on IW China OW > DOM OW?  :Venom:

Cant say until we see how many shows.

FF8 made $212m with todays XR with 165k shows and it was a saturated PTA. This has more WW hype, maybe it could squeeze out a few more percent to say $220m. It would need 17.5% more shows=194k.

Possible

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eXtacy Blockbuster

eXtacy

Posted
Posted

Well if it keeps healthy growths why wouldnt it get a good more amount of a screens. We know China's capacity is at least 500m USD so its more than enough room. Has it got competition on its release weekend?

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Well if it keeps healthy growths why wouldnt it get a good more amount of a screens. We know China's capacity is at least 500m USD so its more than enough room. Has it got competition on its release weekend?

That was on CNY. They have shows running all day, the movies had shorter runtimes(more shows per screen per day) and its a new tradition to go to the movies. Its not easy selling the last 10% of shitty seats but on CNY, 6am sells out. I think CNY had 90%+ saturation and FF8 was 75%.  Hard to sell out Friday morning and Sunday night with school in

 

FF8 had 68% of shows. You have to leave crumbs for other movies. 

Very little competition

 

At this point we can say $200m OW is locked. How much higher is unknown until we see the shows.

The bigger question is can it do $500m total?

 

 

 

Edited by POTUS
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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)

MH2 had 294m PS  

546m/$86m OD  1.85xPS

131k shows   Y4167 per show at Y35 per ticket= 119. I believe the vast majority of theaters are 120 capacity:o

FF8 ticket sales was in the 70s per show

 

@Proxima Olive said he saw 80% of an IMAX sold at 10am.  Olive, could the saturation rate be better than FF8? AoU did 186m on OD with 81k show which is close to matching FF8s saturation and it was on a Tuesday.  Does IW skew younger in the demo than FF8, more teens seeing earlier shows after school or skipping?  

 

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justvision Sleeper Hit

justvision

Posted
Posted

I know it is most likely too good to be true. But imagine North America beat TFA in OW record but failed by a mere 3M to beat its adjusted figure. Then along comes China, "it is good, except it sucks, now let me show you what is really good", and have an OW >USD 261M.

 

(I don't mean at all that AIW Dom record sucks, just can't resist quoting Peter Quill.)

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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Seems like a big increase coming today. Already up 10% from POTUS update.

6 hours later and it's up 20% on Friday and Saturday presales

 

With 6 hours still to go till midnight, this is looking excellent!

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