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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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On 5/1/2018 at 9:38 PM, ZeeSoh said:

 

Infinity War (9 days out)

 

Midnight - 12.81

OD - 33.54 (+15.65%)(72748 screens)

Sat - 21.15

Sun - 9.88

 

It is now following its settled run rate of about 15-20% increases. Screen count is also increasing very slowly now. If it continues like this and then ramp up the last 3-4 days like 20%,25%,45% and then 65% last day then it can get to 200+ PS

Infinity War (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 15.02

OD - 43 (+28.2%)(79671 screens)

Sat - 26.77

Sun - 12.06

 

IW should overtake total PS of Black Panther as well as Spiderman by mid day tomorrow which would be 7.5 days ahead. Good increase today thanks in part to the the near 10% screen count increase. 200m OW is looking more and more likelier by the day. 

 

I think this has a good chance of crossing 200m in PS. Even 15% rise till Monday and then 20,25 and 55% the last 3 days will get it to 200. And if it gets there then I dont see how it misses 200m OW. 

 

But we got burned with BP so I will remain cautiously optimistic with this and see how the increases are over the weekend

 

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22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Just curious, are there many presales for dates past OD? If so, what % of the OD presales would they tend to be?

If you see my above post u can see the presale figure for the whoe weekend as well as thursday previews. PS past the weekend are negligible at this point

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Fast 7 Midnight -52.45M

11110 showtimes

125 admissions per show (Saturday night)

37.8 ATP

Warcraft Midnight -50.1M

13700 showtimes

93 admissions per show

39.4 ATP

Fast 8 Midnight -62.7M including 4.3M fees

18700 showtimes

93 admissions per show

36.2 ATP

 

Edited by Proxima Olive
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On 5/2/2018 at 9:35 AM, POTUS said:

MH2 had 294m PS  

546m/$86m OD  1.85xPS

131k shows   Y4167 per show at Y35 per ticket= 119 per show. I believe the vast majority of theaters are 120 capacity:o

FF8 ticket sales was 70 per show

 

@Proxima Olive said he saw 80% of an IMAX sold at 10am.  Olive, could the saturation rate be better than FF8? AoU did 186m on OD with 81k show which is close to matching FF8s saturation and it was on a Tuesday.  Does IW skew younger in the demo than FF8, more teens seeing earlier shows after school or skipping?  

 

 

6 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

Fast 7 Midnight -52.45M

11110 showtimes

125 admissions per show (Saturday night)

37.8 ATP

Warcraft Midnight -50.1M

13700 showtimes

93 admissions per show

39.4 ATP

Fast 8 Midnight -62.7M including 4.3M fees

18700 showtimes

93 admissions per show

36.2 ATP

 

I looked at FF7s OD Sunday

346m   86.7k shows  Y3990 per show  105 admissions per show

FF8 OD friday

417m  165k shows   Y2527 per show    70 adm per show

AoU OD Tues

186m    81k  shows  Y2296 per show    62 adm per show

 

Its possible with 2 weeks of WW hype that IW could get into the 80s or higher adm per show

 

I cant look at a most chinese theater sites. I guess gringos are blocked.   Chinese members, please check the morning shows in a few areas.  Olive said there was quite a few 80% capacity shows already for morning shows. If thats the case in many cities than maybe a capacity of 80+ could happen get OW well into the $200s.  PS are definitely pointing to a Y500m OD which leads to a $252m OW, morning near-sellouts in multiple markets would confirm that.

 

FF8 had 165k shows out of 243k shows(67%) when  Friday averaged 250k shows.  FF8s runtime reduced the amount of shows. The last 2 months has averaged 290k shows +16%

The potential over FF8 is

16%  more shows

  8%  XR

15%  higher PTA

39% higher than FF8. you do the math

 

IW PS on track for a 17% increase and final of 200m, 20% higher than FF8

Edited by POTUS
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2 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

IW has become Most want~to~see movie on maoyan, with 938k votes.

Ranger Solo is Not too far behind  with 2K.

You mean Solo is only 2K behind or 936k (938k-2k) behind?  Umm, I guess you need not answer me :hahaha:

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41 minutes ago, a2k said:

How creditable that FF8 crossed a 2x multi with that insane ow. Thinking 1.7x for AIW. 185-200 with 1.7 gives 315-340.

If it does 9,0 rating or more it nearly locks 2 multiplier. Nothing big on 2nd weekend

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2 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

How’s it looking now?

Still heading to its average 15% rise today. Yesterday was very good but its back to its normal run for today. It will likely stay within its average range over the weekend too

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