Weekend Thread | The Jungle Book - Early Weekend Estimates 101m - 103m (DHD - Page 59) (Fri 32m, Sat 41.5m-42m) | RTH Saturday Early Est = 40-44M (Page 46) | Barbershop TNC - Est 20.4m (DHD) | Boss -59% | Hardcore Henry epic -71%

[Ethan Hunt]

I expect Dory to break the animation OW record by a good 30-40M

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I expect Dory to break the animation OW record by a good 30-40M

 

You expect Dory to open with 150-160M? Can't wait to see that lol.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

6 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I expect Dory to break the animation OW record by a good 30-40M

Not saying it's impossible, but it has to be as great as the first one to do that IMO. I think it's more likely it breaks it by 5-15m. 150-160m would be tough for an animated family film, but if there is any movie that can do it, it's probably FD.

Edited April 18, 2016 by Jayhawk

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Not saying it's impossible, but it has to be as great as the first one to do that IMO. I think it's more likely it breaks it by 5-15m. 150-160m would be tough for an animated family film, but if there is any movie that can do it, it's probably FD.

How much do reviews matter? That is the question.

Did people really see Zootopia and The Jungle Book because of great reviews. or did great reviews indicate a film that would be successful?

And if Finding Dory makes a an 85% on the Tomatometer, would that really mean that it makes less money than if it had 95%? Somehow, I think that Dory's going to make the same amount of money on its opening weekend whether it is a good or a great film.

[AniNate]

I think at least 10% of the opening was due to reviews if not more. Or at least from an osmosian feeling of "I heard it's really good"

Edited April 18, 2016 by tribefan695

[cannastop]

10 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think at least 10% of the opening was due to reviews if not more. Or at least from an osmosian feeling of "I heard it's really good"

Do you suppose that's the difference of "good" and "really good"?

Edited April 18, 2016 by cannastop

[Arlborn]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

How much do reviews matter? That is the question.

Did people really see Zootopia and The Jungle Book because of great reviews. or did great reviews indicate a film that would be successful?

And if Finding Dory makes a an 85% on the Tomatometer, would that really mean that it makes less money than if it had 95%? Somehow, I think that Dory's going to make the same amount of money on its opening weekend whether it is a good or a great film.

No, I don't think it would. 85%+ would already make most people who care for such things to go to the theater based on the whole "I hear its pretty good" feeling.

Edited April 18, 2016 by Arlborn
grammar

[AniNate]

Kung Fu Panda 3 was "good", in that it satisfied its audience while not really breaking outside of it. Not many who weren't already into animation or Dreamworks movie were that interested in seeing it. Whereas with Zootopia we have a bona fide animation hater in Krissykins willing to go out and see it

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

How much do reviews matter? That is the question.

Did people really see Zootopia and The Jungle Book because of great reviews. or did great reviews indicate a film that would be successful?

And if Finding Dory makes a an 85% on the Tomatometer, would that really mean that it makes less money than if it had 95%? Somehow, I think that Dory's going to make the same amount of money on its opening weekend whether it is a good or a great film.

 

I think reviews and buzz matter quite a bit, especially in the social media age.  Word of mouth spreads faster than ever.  

 

For example, if Jungle Book has mediocre reviews and buzz, I think it only opens to around $80m or so.  If BvS had incredible buzz and reviews then it would have opened more in the $190m range and crossed $400m total.  

 

Finding Dory currently has great buzz and early reviews of the footage that was shown.  If Disney marketing does its job and the reviews are in the 90% or higher range, then I don't think it is crazy to think it opens in the $140m+ range.  It will have pretty much zero competition as it is 2 weeks clear of TMNT and the other wide releases are either weak or not any real threat.  

 

Toy Story 3 opened to $110m nearly 6 years ago.  I don't see this opening any lower inflation adjusted.  

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

How much do reviews matter? That is the question.

Did people really see Zootopia and The Jungle Book because of great reviews. or did great reviews indicate a film that would be successful?

And if Finding Dory makes a an 85% on the Tomatometer, would that really mean that it makes less money than if it had 95%? Somehow, I think that Dory's going to make the same amount of money on its opening weekend whether it is a good or a great film.

Well, I think it is ultimately how the audience reacts to a film that is important. Great reviews are a good indication of quality and potential audience reception, but there are many films that critics love and the GA hates. But I think we've seen (especially recently) that great WOM can affect the OW and not just legs. That may stem from the accessibility of reviews through RT/internet, or just plain old recommending a film to friends and family. It seems, however, that we have seen it more and more helping out films like TJB or Deadpool soar past expectations OW. In the case of Zootopia, the great WOM seemed to help it's legs out more than it's OW (which was great in it's own right, but nothing out of this world) which I would argue is the more "traditional" way films that have great WOM make their money.

[AniNate]

I think the sliding scale changes with a sequel to a beloved film, though. 85% would be "pretty good" for most films but "slightly underwhelming" for Finding Dory. That happened with other big sequels too like The Dark Knight Rises and Avengers: AOU

Edited April 18, 2016 by tribefan695

[EmpireCity]

Pixar has only had one true critical bomb, and that was Cars 2 at 39%, but you have to remember that Cars is their 2nd lowest RT scored film at 74% fresh.  

 

Other than that, nothing they have made has fallen below 76% fresh.  

 

It is also amazing they have 3 other movies in that range (Good Dinosaur 76%, Brave 78%, Monsters University 78%), but everything else they have made is 92% or higher.  I'm going to bet that Dory ends up in that 92% range or higher.  

[stripe]

Increasing from estimates... What should we expect for Monday? I'm wondering if it can drop less than most family films.

I can see it falling around 70% to 9M as a best case scenario. Or as bad as 75%, to 7.5M.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, nilephelan said:

Pixar has only had one true critical bomb, and that was Cars 2 at 39%, but you have to remember that Cars is their 2nd lowest RT scored film at 74% fresh.  

 

Other than that, nothing they have made has fallen below 76% fresh.  

 

It is also amazing they have 3 other movies in that range (Good Dinosaur 76%, Brave 78%, Monsters University 78%), but everything else they have made is 92% or higher.  I'm going to bet that Dory ends up in that 92% range or higher.  

Did you have similarly high expectations for Monsters University?

[EmpireCity]

It also looks like the Sunday number is around $30.4m for JB

[DAJK]

27 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think at least 10% of the opening was due to reviews if not more. Or at least from an osmosian feeling of "I heard it's really good"

Word of mouth is a huge factor when it comes to family movies. I can list off a few examples of families in line for BvS, but then another family they know comes out of Jungle Book and tells them that they should go see that instead.

 

And that's just in line ups for example. Social media, parents, kids talking to each other. It all factors in.

[JohnnyGossamer]

WOM for Jungle Book seems stellar. What kind of upcoming weekend does it need to lock up $300M+ DOM?

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Did you have similarly high expectations for Monsters University?

 

I didn't have nearly as high of hopes for that.  It looked good, but didn't think the subject matter would connect that well.  

 

Finding Dory is TFA to Finding Nemo's ANH.  They are basically taking the same characters, throwing some new characters in and repeating a beloved plot with a new twist.  It is 13 years since the original, so more than enough time to make that audience nostalgic while still having it set in the same beautiful world to attract the new audience of kids.  The early word from CinemaCon is especially great and I know some people that saw the footage and think they have knocked it out of the park.  

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

WOM for Jungle Book seems stellar. What kind of upcoming weekend does it need to lock up $300M+ DOM?

300M DOM is happening. As long as it doesn't fall 55%+ or something ridiculous like that.

 

I retract my statement from Thursday that I don't think this will have the legs people are expecting (albeit good legs nonetheless). I'm now thinking a 3.5 multiplier is totally possible.

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'm expecting a multiplier between 3.0 and 3.25.