Weekend Thread | The Jungle Book - Early Weekend Estimates 101m - 103m (DHD - Page 59) (Fri 32m, Sat 41.5m-42m) | RTH Saturday Early Est = 40-44M (Page 46) | Barbershop TNC - Est 20.4m (DHD) | Boss -59% | Hardcore Henry epic -71%

[stripe]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Did you have similarly high expectations for Monsters University?

 

Sequel generates more interest than prequel

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

WOM for Jungle Book seems stellar. What kind of upcoming weekend does it need to lock up $300M+ DOM?

 

300M is pretty much locked already w/the crazy great WOM. After all, Zootopia had a 75M debut and it'll end up in the 330-350 range w/equally strong reviews. Alice had a slightly stronger OW but tepid WOM, and still made it.

 

But to directly answer your question, I say it needs to say above at the very least 20M on week 4, which is the Civil War OW. Assuming that the 190-200M buzz comes to fruition, everything that's leftover will be taking a big time balls punch. If JB survives that w/little damage, 300M is an absolute given.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

5 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I think reviews and buzz matter quite a bit, especially in the social media age.  Word of mouth spreads faster than ever.  

 

For example, if Jungle Book has mediocre reviews and buzz, I think it only opens to around $80m or so.  If BvS had incredible buzz and reviews then it would have opened more in the $190m range and crossed $400m total.  

 

Finding Dory currently has great buzz and early reviews of the footage that was shown.  If Disney marketing does its job and the reviews are in the 90% or higher range, then I don't think it is crazy to think it opens in the $140m+ range.  It will have pretty much zero competition as it is 2 weeks clear of TMNT and the other wide releases are either weak or not any real threat.  

 

Toy Story 3 opened to $110m nearly 6 years ago.  I don't see this opening any lower inflation adjusted.  

See, I feel like it would've opened with about half of what it did. It opened huge precisely because of those things. Even the early positive buzz had the film tracking at "only" 70m or so.

[DAJK]

9 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

It also looks like the Sunday number is around $30.4m for JB

So pretty much even with estimates. Darn.

 

Nice to know 100M still happened though.

[stripe]

6 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I didn't have nearly as high of hopes for that.  It looked good, but didn't think the subject matter would connect that well.  

 

Finding Dory is TFA to Finding Nemo's ANH.  They are basically taking the same characters, throwing some new characters in and repeating a beloved plot with a new twist.  It is 13 years since the original, so more than enough time to make that audience nostalgic while still having it set in the same beautiful world to attract the new audience of kids.  The early word from CinemaCon is especially great and I know some people that saw the footage and think they have knocked it out of the park.  

 

 

It's more difficult to create nostalgia when dealing with kid/family films. Families and kids grow while fanbase for SW is adult.

[EmpireCity]

Just now, stripe said:

 

 

It's more difficult to create nostalgia when dealing with kid/family films. Families and kids grow while fanbase for SW is adult.

 

I agree, but Pixar is brilliant at doing it.  They did it perfectly with Toy Story 3 a few years ago.  

 

SW/TFA fanbase is a good mix of adult and kids.  

[DAJK]

22 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Did you have similarly high expectations for Monsters University?

Even so, Monsters Inc was never as popular as Nemo. Not even close.

[SteveJaros]

13 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

Antz made 170 mil worldwide on a 105 mil budget. If it's a "moderate success" then so is The Good Dinosaur

 

 

You are missing the qualitative aspect of Antz. At the time, animated films were totally dominated by Disney, and their Pixar partner that had hit with Toy Story three years before. Everyone else was scrambling to capture a slice of that lucrative market. "Antz" did just that for Dreamworks. It was a box office success in terms of getting people to buy tickets to an animated film that wasn't Disney. It helped establish a Dreamworks animated brand. It was also an artistic success, garnering good reviews at a time when everyone was being compared to the Disney/Pixar yardstick, a high bar to meet.

 

So while Antz may have been a tactical loss (in terms of revenue vs production/marketing costs), strategically, it was a big success. It paved the way for Prince of Egypt a few months later, and for the Shrek movies that heralded a decade of Dreamworks animated hits. 

Note that other than the part about paving the way for Shrek, which nobody could have specifically foreseen, this is not historical retrospection. All of what I am saying here was discussed at the time Antz was released, in late 1998. The feeling then was that with Antz, Dreamworks established a credible box office and artistic presence, a toe-hold in the animated market, and that this would pay dividends moving forward with more animated releases.

 

Bottom line is that Antz was regarded as a success in 1998, and should be thought that way now. A focus on its narrow revenues/costs financials misses a much more important bigger picture.

Edited April 18, 2016 by SteveJaros

[Thrylos 7]

3 hours ago, holcs said:

It's the same shit 4 weeks later.  Of course they're bringing up bvs- it's their victory. Congrats all, bvs drops have been bad...you want a pat on the back, a high five, a cookie? Lol sad. Jb , great start, didn't get to see it this weekend, I'm planning on seeing it in IMAX.

It's a hugely anticipated event movie that "underperformed" , and I am being generous here, in the bo and got awful reviews and audience reaction having some of the worst legs ever plus the DC fans have been busting our balls for two years . Of course it will continue to be a topic of discussion until civil war ends its bo run and possibly even beyond that with the Snyder JL looming ....

[AniNate]

I don't think Antz had anything to do with The Prince of Egypt's success. TPOE was more kid-friendly and appealed to the spiritual audience, and with its smaller budget was really the movie that kept Dreamworks afloat at that time. 

 

It may have helped pave the way for Shrek, but mainly in the sense of Dreamworks figuring out how to strike a balance between irreverence and family-friendliness

Edited April 18, 2016 by tribefan695

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Rogue One is not a lock. Not even Finding Dory. Only Civil War.

 

With this I am not saying those won't make 100M OW, I am pretty sure they will. I am just saying they are not locks. 

 

CJohn.

[TalismanRing]

23 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

It's a hugely anticipated event movie that "underperformed" , and I am being generous here, in the bo and got awful reviews and audience reaction having some of the worst legs ever plus the DC fans have been busting our balls for two years . Of course it will continue to be a topic of discussion until civil war ends its bo run and possibly even beyond that with the Snyder JL looming ....

 

Yes, it's B.O. is noteworthy. 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/

 

It's on track to be he first movie (of 37) to open over $100m with a multiplier below than 2x  

Of films with the top 188 o/w it's on track to only be the fourth to have a multiplier below 2x

 

7	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$166,007,347	53.30%	4,242	$39,134	$311,311,730	3/25/2016
150	Watchmen	WB	$55,214,334	51.40%	3,611	$15,291	$107,509,799	3/6/2009
59	Fifty Shades of Grey	Uni.	$85,171,450	51.30%	3,646	$23,360	$166,167,230	2/13/2015
140	Valentine's Day	WB (NL)	$56,260,707	50.90%	3,665	$15,351	$110,485,654	2/12/2010

 

 

[CJohn]

24 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

CJohn.

What? It is not. I might change my opinion soon but for now I don't think it is a lock. 

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:

I think the sliding scale changes with a sequel to a beloved film, though. 85% would be "pretty good" for most films but "slightly underwhelming" for Finding Dory. That happened with other big sequels too like The Dark Knight Rises and Avengers: AOU

 

I agree. Finding Nemo clocked in at 99% on RT%, so part of the buzz around Finding Dory isn't just that its the sequel to a movie that did well. Its also that its the sequel to a movie that was GREAT. The current buzz isn't that there's excitement that maybe Finding Dory will make 500m domestic (because GA doesn't care about that), its that there's an expectation that it will *also* be a great movie. If reviews suggest that Finding Dory isn't a *great* movie, merely, perhaps, a very good one, that'll hurt it. It'll still do great, but not as great as if everyone says its spectacular.

 

So in that sense, I'd argue there's little difference between an 85% and maybe a 92%. Both suggest its a very good movie, but probably not a truly great one, and either score would probably have a comparable result on box office. Which, as you say, would be a feeling of being slightly underwhelmed. 

Edited April 18, 2016 by Wrath

[a2k]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

Rogue One is not a lock. Not even Finding Dory. Only Civil War.

 

With this I am not saying those won't make 100M OW, I am pretty sure they will. I am just saying they are not locks. 

 

 

 

i don't see rogue one's ow below sw7's od.

dory wll go over ts3's 110m for sure. apart from being a follow up to a great movie with a big bo, it's a family movie in dead of summer and the ow competition will be central intelligence and 2nd weekends of now you see me 2, conjuring 2, warcraft.

 

Edited April 18, 2016 by a2knet

[wildphantom]

Rogue One isn't a lock to do $100 million OW? Wait, what?

It's as much of a lock as any film could possibly be. 

[Biggestgeekever]

If the only way a film would miss a $100M OW is if an asteroid took out the east coast, it's safe to say it is a lock.

[EmpireCity]

The Jungle Book just had a $104m opening weekend in April.  

 

There is 0% chance that Finding Dory and Rogue One aren't locks to have $100m opening weekends.  

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

If the only way a film would miss a $100M OW is if an asteroid took out the east coast, it's safe to say it is a lock.

Or if the Apocalypse finally occurs almost 4 years to the day after it was originally supposed to.

[junkshop36]

RO is a stone cold lock to open over 100m. It'll pass that mark sometime Saturday.