Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[FishMB]

24 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

RDJ continues to be a golden goose for Marvel Studios.

 

His last 4 Marvel films are Marvel Studios' biggest movies by far.

 

Yep. That's their plan to make the Spidey reboot successful. All it takes is one great trailer with Spidey/Tony banter and it'll open over $130. 

 

Great idea, but totally obvious. Any of us could have successfully rebooted Spidey in the MCU.

[zackzack]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Okay, three points:

 

2 - The whole "critics are paid by Marvel/Disney" thing is pretty astounding, considering that, like Kevin Feige said, Marvel would only have to lose if BVS got a terrible reception, since that hurts the superhero genre as a whole - it exausts audiences if they see a bad one the same way that it cheers them up if they see a good one, which makes them anticipate more another upcoming SH movie (on the other hand, that audience could be like "nah" at another one should they have been coming off a bad one). Plus, it doesn't help that BVS was riddled by darkness and joylessness, and a general lack of fun, which could always make its flaws all the more apparent (compared to Marvel, which colors its own flaws w/flashiness, jokes, quips and all), and therefore, the sentiment against it that much easier. Not to mention, why would Disney risk such a PR debacle as actually corrupting the critics? You liked BVS more? Fine, great, pretty sure many others did too. Stick it at that. Enough w/this damn conspiracy shit already.

 

The Dark Knight is full of darkness (literally) & joylessness but it grossed more than $500M.

 

[The Futurist]

Nay, Ultron was a disastuh fo Disney, anything under 215m OW, 600m+ dom & 1,5B WW isn't worth their while.

[WrathOfHan]

MCU holds:

 

Iron Man: +6%/-30.3%

Hulk: -14.4%/-15.3%

Iron Man 2: -10.7%/-32%

Thor: -8.4%/-27.6%

Cap: -14.6%/-20.6%

Avengers: -13.9%/-18%

Iron Man 3: -9.6%/-30.9%

Thor 2: +0.6%/-32.2%

Winter Soldier: -6.1%/-32.4%

GOTG: -18.1%/-17.8%

AOU: -33%/-11%

Ant-Man: -14.1%/-22.4%

 

With previews included, CW will have the second worst hold behind AOU. #ToxicWOM #Crumbling

 

I expect a softer drop today.

 

[cannastop]

7 hours ago, somebody85 said:

The story has to be good. No ones going to that for the CGI. If they were The Good Dinosaur would have been a massive hit.

People are going to see the return of those characters and it's been hyped to hell for years much like The Incredibles 2.

The trailers don't look underwhelming because of the CGI but because of the story. But we saw how that turned out with Zootopia!

I know I've beaten this horse dead, but what about Zootopia's final trailer?

[kswiston]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Looks like the totals will end up:

 

DOM: TA > AOU > CW > IM3

 

WW: TA > AOU > CW > IM3

 

Not bad. I doubt Disney is disappointed with this, if it happens.

 

Its way too early to be projecting the domestic run. 

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, zackzack said:

 

The Dark Knight is full of darkness (literally) & joylessness but it grossed more than $500M.

 

 

Yeah, but the difference is that TDK was, you know, good. It did the dark and moody thing good, therefore the non-fun was replaced by edge-of-your-seat intensity, which avoided potential boredom and, with that, easier sentiment to nitpick. It also had quite a lot of subtle humor. Also, it was accessible for even non-comic book fans, while BVS was very comic-driven and too messy to be fully understandable for those non-fans.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, kswiston said:

 

Its way too early to be projecting the domestic run. 

No it's not?

[The Futurist]

The Joker, any iteration, is one of funniest character of all time.

 

It is called Dark Humor.

 

 

[grey ghost]

I notice after MCU films with mixed reviews, actors like RDJ and Evans start expressing how they would like to retire from MCU after Infinity War 1 and 2..

 

But when a movie gets rave reviews they express adding one or two movies to their contract.

 

The quality of these films definitely stretch out how much longer the current cast sticks around.

[kswiston]

5 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

No it's not?

 

Sure it is if you are trying to conclusively rank the films. A 2.4x and 2.6x multiplier will give you a $36M swing and mean the difference between beating Ultron domestically or not. You can tell after 2 days of data which one of those are more likely? 

Edited May 8, 2016 by kswiston

[Deathlife]

Civil War is very good.

 

One of Marvel's best.

 

There I said it, so how do I get my Disney check? Isn't that how it works? Or do I need to be paid before hand to say I like the movie?

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

Its way too early to be projecting the domestic run. 

 

 

The range is 425-490 m DOM.

 

Unless the legs are shockingly good or shockingly bad.

[jse]

So this will (likely) fall short of my 181M prediction...

Pre 25M

True Fri 50.25

Fri 75.25M

Sat 60.5M (Deadline update range avg)(+20% over True Fri)

Sun 42.35 (-30%)

OW 178M

 

Although its still possible to hit that with a best case scenario:

Sat 61M (Deadline update range high)(+21% over TF)

Sun 45.75 (+25%)

OW 182M

 

Deadline worst case (60M then 39M, 35% Sun drop) puts it at 174.25M (IM3-ish).

 

But Rth worst case puts it at (58M + 37.7M) 170.95M (DH2+ -ish).

 

[MCKillswitch123]

Assuming the movie opens to around 181, I'm predicting the range is anywhere near from 181.1M to infinity. 

 

_{See what I did there?}

Edited May 8, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[spizzer]

Seems like could be a photo finish with IM3. Pretty standard weekend pattern from ~50M Friday w/50% previews.

Edited May 8, 2016 by spizzer

[Sam]

4 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

Civil War is very good.

 

One of Marvel's best.

 

There I said it, so how do I get my Disney check? Isn't that how it works? Or do I need to be paid before hand to say I like the movie?

 

"Very good" is not gonna be enough for Disney to cut the check.

 

You gonna need to do way better than that. 

[DAR]

Disney wouldn't have to pay me off in money.  Just a lifetime pass to all their theme parks

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, spizzer said:

Seems like could be a photo finish with IM3. Pretty standard weekend pattern from ~50M Friday w/50% previews.

 

 

You expect Sunday to be sub 40 million? 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, DAR said:

Disney wouldn't have to pay me off in money.  Just a lifetime pass to all their theme parks

Not without spending $300 per night for a room and $60 for the Dining Plan you won't!