Weekend Actuals (Page 67): Captain Pirate: Piracy War 72.6M | Jungle Book 17.1M | Money Monster 14.8M | The Darkness 5M | Mother's Day 3.3M

[BourneFan #1]

I like Minions quite a bit more on a rewatch. It's still simple fluff but it has a great soundtrack.

[vc2002]

WOW, so Civil War is running exactly like Ironman 3?

[KGator]

49 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Eurovision will depress Saturday. 

 

In Australia maybe but this is the US. People in the states don't know what that is.  It won't effect domestic Box office at all.

 

The only reason I even know what Eurovision is happens to be because a friend told me (who happened to also be from Australia).  And of course I was, "WTH is Eurovision?  Some kind of new TV channel?"

[redfirebird2008]

37 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Yeah, I know I'm not all that good yet. I'm still refining my methods.

 

Best thing to do is compare it with the daily gross of Ultron and Iron Man 3. It won't make much more than either of them the rest of the way. Range is pretty much $420-430m. Could go lower, could go higher but for the most part that is the likely landing spot. 

[Dementeleus]

2 hours ago, #ED said:

Tele.

 

Eh, what's that?

[johnboy3434]

9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Best thing to do is compare it with the daily gross of Ultron and Iron Man 3. It won't make much more than either of them the rest of the way. Range is pretty much $420-430m. Could go lower, could go higher but for the most part that is the likely landing spot. 

 

My main problem is that I'm largely trying to sidestep the "intuition" part of the process and build forecasting models that rely solely on hard data. Hard data is more informative than intuition, provided you know how to use it. If you don't know how to use it, like I haven't figured out yet, then you're obviously better off making educated guesses.

Edited May 15, 2016 by johnboy3434

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

My main problem is that I'm largely trying to sidestep the "intuition" part of the process and build forecasting models that rely solely on hard data. Hard data is more informative than intuition, provided you know how to use it. If you don't know how to use it, like I haven't figured out yet, then you're obviously better off making educated guesses.

 

But there's always going to be some intuition involved, even if it's just picking which comps to use. 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

My main problem is that I'm largely trying to sidestep the "intuition" part of the process and build forecasting models that rely solely on hard data. Hard data is more informative than intuition, provided you know how to use it. If you don't know how to use it, like I haven't figured out yet, then you're obviously better off making educated guesses.

 

I'm using plenty of hard data here. Just look at the daily numbers compared to IM3 and Ultron. Look at the fact it's going to come up well short of $80m for the second weekend with very little competition (less than what IM3 faced in Gatsby at $50m). The film opened $5m higher than IM3 over the weekend and is going to end up with a similar second weekend, maybe lower. That's not a sign of a movie that's headed for much stronger legs than IM3 or Ultron. 

[SWXII]

7 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

My main problem is that I'm largely trying to sidestep the "intuition" part of the process and build forecasting models that rely solely on hard data. Hard data is more informative than intuition, provided you know how to use it. If you don't know how to use it, like I haven't figured out yet, then you're obviously better off making educated guesses.

 

You've watched way too much Star Trek.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

Eurovision will depress Saturday. 

Lol are you for fucking real?

[DeeCee]

26 minutes ago, KGator said:

 

In Australia maybe but this is the US. People in the states don't know what that is.  It won't effect domestic Box office at all.

 

The only reason I even know what Eurovision is happens to be because a friend told me (who happened to also be from Australia).  And of course I was, "WTH is Eurovision?  Some kind of new TV channel?"

 

8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Lol are you for fucking real?

Yes. I am serious. And don't call me Shirley. 

[johnboy3434]

1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

 

Yes. I am serious. And don't call me Shirley. 

 

He didn't. He called you "fucking".

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

 

Yes. I am serious. And don't call me Shirley. 

Next thing I know, you'll be talking about the World Cup affecting film grosses in 2018.

[POTUS 2020]

@cannastop, why under $400m a possibility.

It's going to make $88m or less for the week through Thursday. Total at $310m~. With 50% average WoW weekly holds, just 88m more would be made, 398m  myself and everyone else would assume that a few 40% holds are in order. However this weekend is going to be under every derby pick. No expected this. I dropped my pick by 5% to 74m after seeing wed drop due to piracy. Its going to get hit for 10%+. Combining fatigue, (lol)holding worse than ASm2.,the fatigue POS king, and piracy its possible it doesn't hold better than 50% next weekend. With alice and x-men it will lose most of its premium screens the following weekend. 

BVS wasn't fatigued or HD pirated. It was just a fucking turd.  It made 64m it's second week and will fail to make 60m more, even with the unexpected holds of -40 and -30% in its 5th and 6th weekend. 

AoU made 97m it's second week, then made 126m more. However it had little competition memorial day weekend and kept a lot of its premium screens and held -44%. 

 

If it holds in the -40s next weekend and -50% the following weekend it'll cruise past 400m and land 410- 420m. If its -50% then -55%. It'll be in the 390s and it'll be all up to the fudge packing machine at that point.

#wakeupandsmellthecatfood

Edited May 15, 2016 by No Prisoners

[DeeCee]

1 minute ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

He didn't. He called you "fucking".

Nothing goes over my head. My reflexes are too fast. I would catch it. 

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Ooooooooooh... 

 

I like to hear this

Much much better than Keanu, which, and I may as well announce it.

 

I WATCHED NORM OF THE NORTH THIS YEAR. AND I STAYED THROUGH THE WHOLE THING. BUT I WALKED OUT OF KEANU AFTER 30 MINUTES

[filmlover]

Next weekend is one of the bigger wildcards in recent memory. Angry Birds could do anywhere from $25M to $45M. Neighbors 2 feels like Ted 2 all over again. The Nice Guys is unfortunately destined to get lost in the shuffle.

[moviesRus]

lol what, cw is $10m ahead of IM3 so unless it completely drops off the face of the earth, it's probably going to at least match its $409m.

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, DAJK said:

Much much better than Keanu, which, and I may as well announce it.

 

I WATCHED NORM OF THE NORTH THIS YEAR. AND I STAYED THROUGH THE WHOLE THING. BUT I WALKED OUT OF KEANU AFTER 30 MINUTES

As someone who really doesn't think Key and Peele skits are very funny. And struggles to sit through them when they get past the three minute mark I can't imagine watching a whole.movie

[kswiston]

20 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

@cannastop, why under $400m a possibility.

It's going to make $88m or less for the week through Thursday. Total at $310m~. With 50% average WoW weekly holds, just 88m more would be made, 398m  myself and everyone else would assume that a few 40% holds are in order. However this weekend is going to be under every derby pick. No expected this. I dropped my pick by 5% to 74m after seeing wed drop due to piracy. Its going to get hit for 10%+. Combining fatigue, (lol)holding worse than ASm2.,the fatigue POS king, and piracy its possible it doesn't hold better than 50% next weekend. With alice and x-men it will lose most of its premium screens the following weekend. 

BVS wasn't fatigued or HD pirated. It was just a fucking turd.  It made 64m it's second week and will fail to make 60m more, even with the unexpected holds of -40 and -30% in its 5th and 6th weekend. 

AoU made 97m it's second week, then made 126m more. However it had little competition memorial day weekend and kept a lot of its premium screens and held -44%. 

 

If it holds in the -40s next weekend and -50% the following weekend it'll cruise past 400m and land 410- 420m. If its -50% then -55%. It'll be in the 390s and it'll be all up to the fudge packing machine at that point.

#wakeupandsmellthecatfood

 

I think you are starting to do the same thing you did last year with Ultron. Civil War isn't going to hold like Amazing Spider-man 2. Friday to Friday drop was pretty much the same as AoU. Friday to Friday drop without previews was within a percent of both AoU and Iron Man 3.