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Top 10 of 2017 predictions!

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Screenrant's top 2017 predictions (with my incisive commentary):

 

1700 (670+1030) - Episode 8

1100 (385+715) - Despicable Me 3

1000 (250+750) - Pirates 5 (no)

1000 (260+740) - Transformers 5

1000 (375+625) - Justice League (no)

900 (340+560) - Beauty Beast

900 (340+560) - Spiderman

890 (285+605) - Fast 8 (kek)

875 (335+540) - GotG2

830 (325+505) - Wonder Woman

740 (230+510) - Thor

630 (175+455) - Apes 3

600 (185+415) - Power Rangers (lolwut)

575 (175+400) - Dunkirk

550 (175+375) - 50 Shades Darker

550 (175+375) - The Mummy

530 (185+345) - Logan

510 (185+325) - Kingsman 2

500 (150+350) - Cars 3

500 (220+280) - Lego Batman

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On 26/11/2016 at 1:39 AM, MovieMan89 said:

BatB probably has more of a chance at doing 400m than any film from this year did. 

 

I disagree, none of Disney's live action remakes have ever made $400m, while the last Star Wars film made $936m making Rogue One more likely to hit the mark.

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Spoiler
  1. Star Wars Episode VIII: $710 million 
  2. Beauty & the Beast: $480 million 
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $445 million 
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $420 million 
  5. The LEGO Batman Movie: $365 million 
  6. Justice League: $340 million
  7. Despicable Me 3: $305 million 
  8. Fast 8: $280 million 
  9. Coco: $265 million 
  10. Wonder Woman: $250 million 
  11. Logan: $215 million 
  12. Thor - Ragnorak: $210 million 
  13. Dunkirk: $190 million 
  14. Transformers - The Last Knight: $185 million 
  15. Alien - Covenant: $180 million
  16. Jumanji: $175 million 
  17. Baywatch: $170 million 
  18. Cars 3: $165 million 
  19. War for the Planet of the Apes: $160 million 
  20. Ninjago: $155 million 
  21. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $150 million 
  22. Murder on the Orient Express: $140 million 
  23. Kong - Skull Island: $135 million 
  24. Mother/Daughter: $130 million 
  25. The Mummy: $125 million 
  26. Blade Runner 2049: $120 million 
  27. Red Sparrow: $115 million 
  28. The House: $115 million 
  29. Pitch Perfect 3: $110 million 
  30. Girl Trip: $105 million 
  31. Fist Fight: $105 million 
  32. A Dog's Purpose: $100 million 
  33. Split: $100 million 

 

 

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DOM:

1. SW8 ($800M)

2. GotG2 ($450M)

3. BatB ($400M)

4. SMH ($350M)

5. JL ($350M)

6. Lego Batman ($330M)

7. DM3 ($315M)

8. WW ($300M)

9. F8 ($280M)

10. Coco ($275M)

 

WW: 

1. SW8 ($1.8B)

2. F8 ($1.3B)

3. GotG2 ($1.2B)

4. BatB ($1B)

5. DM3 ($950M)

6. SMH ($950M)

7. JL ($900M)

8. TF5 ($900M)

9. WW ($750M)

10. WftPotA ($750M)

 

The WW and JL numbers are accounting for the fact that they are both somewhat well-received, but if one or both get BvS/SS level reception I could easily see much lower for them. 

I could see Coco slightly edging War of the Planet of the Dawn of the Revenge of the Redundant Title of the Apes, I just think it'll be a little lower overall considering it's an original property while Apes is coming off of two very well-received predecessors. 

Edited by Eevin
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21 hours ago, Eevin said:

DOM:

1. SW8 ($800M)

2. GotG2 ($450M)

3. BatB ($400M)

4. JL ($350M)

5. SMH ($340M)

6. Lego Batman ($330M)

7. DM3 ($315M)

8. WW ($300M)

9. F8 ($280M)

10. Coco ($275M)

 

WW: 

1. SW8 ($1.8B)

2. F8 ($1.3B)

3. GotG2 ($1.2B)

4. BatB ($1B)

5. DM3 ($950M)

6. JL ($900M)

7. TF5 ($900M)

8. SMH ($900M)

9. WW ($750M)

10. WftPotA ($750M)

 

The WW and JL numbers are accounting for the fact that they are both somewhat well-received, but if one or both get BvS/SS level reception I could easily see much lower for them. 

I could see Coco slightly edging War of the Planet of the Dawn of the Revenge of the Redundant Title of the Apes, I just think it'll be a little lower overall considering it's an original property while Apes is coming off of two very well-received predecessors. 

Other than swapping Spidey and Justice League (Spidey will likely get better reception/WOM and have an equivalent OW plus summer weekdays in its favor), I'd say that is a reasonable top 10 of 2017 predict!

 

I personally see B&TB finishing 2nd, but if GotG Vol. 2 ends up being equivalent or even better than the original, the barren May lineup might allow it to do $475-500 million DOM off a $150-170 million OW. 

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5 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Other than swapping Spidey and Justice League (Spidey will likely get better reception/WOM and have an equivalent OW plus summer weekdays in its favor), I'd say that is a reasonable top 10 of 2017 predict!

 

I personally see B&TB finishing 2nd, but if GotG Vol. 2 ends up being equivalent or even better than the original, the barren May lineup might allow it to do $475-500 million DOM off a $150-170 million OW. 

Yeah, after seeing the first Homecoming trailer I've upped my prediction to $350M+/$950M+. 

Put BatB at #2 because I think the really crowded March schedule (Logan, Kong, Power Rangers, etc.) is going to take away some business from it. If it were releasing in a less competitive month, like May for example, I think $450M+ and even $500M+ could be possible. 

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Official predictions:

 

1 Star Wars VIII - $830m

2 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 - $320m

3 Justice League - $310m

4 Despicable Me 3 - $300m

5 Spider-Man: Homecoming - $280m

6 The Lego Batman Movie - $260m

7 Wonder Woman - $250m

8 Thor: Ragnarok - $245m

9 Beauty and the Beast - $240m

10 Coco - $230m

11 The Fate of the Furious - $225m

12 Transformers: The Last Knight - $210m

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Going to do this one more time

 

January

 

6th

Underworld - 15m / 32m

A Monster Calls - 23m / 72m

 

13th

Patriot's Day - 35m / 110m

The Bye Bye Man - 7m / 15.4m

Monster Trucks - 17m / 43m

 

20th

Split - 27m Ow / 72m

The Founder - 15m / 36m

xXx - 8m / 17.2m

 

27th

A Dog's Purpose - 30m / 88m

Resident Evil - 20m / 48m

Gold - 12m / 28.8m

 

February

 

3rd

The Space Between Us - 15m / 36m

Same Kind of Different As Me - 8m / 30.4m

Rings - 12m / 28m

 

10th

Fifty Shades Darker - 50.6m / 100m

John Wick: Chapter 2 - 21.3m / 60m

The LEGO Batman Movie - 60.3m / 205m

 

17th

A Cure For Wellness - 10m / 25.2m

Fist Fight - 24.3m / 73m

The Great Wall - 14.5m / 34m

 

24th

Get Out - 11m / 25m

Rock Dog - 14m / 30m

 

March

 

3rd

Logan - 65m / 175m

 

10th

Kong: Skull Island - 45.5m / 121.8m

 

17th

Beauty and the Beast - 150.2m / 405.5m

 

24th

CHiPs - 15m / 35m

Life - 27.4m / 82.2m

Power Rangers - 31.4m / 78.5m

 

31st

The Boss Baby - 26m / 78m

Ghost in the Shell - 34m / 95m

 

April

 

7th

The Case for Christ - 16.5m / 66m

Smurfs: The Lost Village - 24.5m / 68.4m

 

14th

The Fate of the Furious - 94m / 207m

 

May

 

5th

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 - 165m / 462m

 

12th

King Arthur - 28.4m / 72m

Snatched - 30.1m / 102m

 

19th

Alien: Covenant - 37.5m / 103m

 

26th

Baywatch - 34.2m / 110m

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - 85m / 227.8m

 

June

 

2nd

Captain Underpants - 25.5m / 86.7m

Wonder Woman - 135.5m / 291.3m

 

9th

The Mummy - 27.4m / 67m

World War Z 2 - 30.2m / 78.5m

 

15th

Cars 3 - 49.3m / 160m

 

23rd

Transformers: The Last Knight - 68.7m / 158.7m

 

30th

Despicable Me 3 - 110m / 335.5m

 

July

 

7th

Spider-Man: Homecoming - 105m / 278m

 

14th

War of the Planet of the Apes - 85m / 234m

 

21st

Dunkirk - 52m / 213.2m

 

28th

The Dark Tower - 45.6m / 182.6m

 

August

 

4th

Emoji Movie - 28.7m / 91.8m

 

11th

Baby Drive - 25.4m / 106.8m

 

September

 

8th

It - 26.4m / 68.6m

 

22nd

Ninjago - 34.5m / 120.8m

 

29th

American Made - 27.4m / 79m

 

October

 

6th

Blade Runner 2049 - 35.6m / 121m

Kingsman: The Golden Circle - 30.2m / 89m

My Little Pony - 26.5m / 83m

 

13th

Friday the 13th - 56.7m / 119.7m

 

20th

Geostorm - 24.5m / 66.2m

Insidious Chapter 2 - 27.4m / 68.5m

 

27th

2017 Cloverfield Movie - 32m / 90m

 

November

 

3rd

Thor: Ragnorak - 78.4m / 192m

 

10th

The Star - 33.2m / 112.9m

Red Sparrow - 28.7m / 105m

 

17th

Justice League - 145m / 319m

 

22nd

Coco - 48.2m / 200m

Let It Snow - 40m / 180m

Murder on the Orient Express - 27.4m / 100m

 

December

 

15th

Star Wars: Episode 8 - 225m / 787.5m

 

22nd

Downsizing - 23m / 78.2m

Jumanji - 28.4m / 100m

Pitch Perfect 3 - 35m / 126m

 

  1. Star Wars: Episode 8 - 787.5m
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 - 462m
  3. Beauty and the Beast - 405.5m
  4. Despicable Me 3- 335.5m
  5. Justice League - 319m
  6. Wonder Woman - 291.3m
  7. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 278m
  8. War of the Planet of the Apes - 234m
  9. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - 227.8m
  10. Dunkirk - 213.2m
  11. The Fate of the Furious - 207m
  12. The LEGO Batman Movie - 205m
  13. Coco - 200m
  14. Thor: Ragnorak - 192m
  15. The Dark Tower - 182.6m
  16. Let It Snow - 180m
  17. Logan - 175m
  18. Cars 3 - 160m
  19. Transformers: The Last Knight - 158.7m
  20. Pitch Perfect 3 - 126m
  21. Kong: Skull Island - 121.8m
  22. Blade Runner 2049 - 121m
  23. Ninjago - 120.8m
  24. Friday the 13th - 119.7m
  25. The Star - 112.9m
  26. Baywatch - 110m
  27. Baby Driver - 106.8m
  28. Red Sparrow - 105m
  29. Alien: Covenant: 103m
  30. Snatched - 102m
  31. Jumanji - 100m
  32. Murder on the Orient Express - 100m

Fifty Shades Darker - 97m

Ghost in the Shell - 95m

Emoji Movie - 91.8m

2017 Cloverfield Movie - 90m

Kingsman: The Golden Circle - 89m

A Dog's Purpose - 88m

Captain Underpants - 86.7m

My Little Pony - 83m

Life - 82.2m

American Made - 79m

Power Rangers - 78.5m

World War Z 2 - 78.5m

Downsizing - 78.2m

The Boss Baby - 78m

Fist Fight - 73m

King Arthur - 72m

Split -  72m

It - 68.6m

Insidious Chapter 4 - 68.5m

Smurfs: The Lost Village - 68.4m

The Mummy - 67m

Geostorm - 66.2m

The Case for Christ - 66m

John Wick: Chapter 2 - 60m

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My more official Predictions 

 

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII $825,000,000
  2. Beauty and the Beast $444,000,000
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 $424,000,000
  4. The Lego Batman Movie $334,000,000
  5. Despicable Me 3 $300,000,000
  6. Spider-Man: Homecoming $290,000,000
  7. The Fate of the Furious $260,000,000
  8. Justice League $255,000,000
  9. Wonder Woman $250,000,000
  10. Coco $235,000,000
  11. Thor: Ragnarok  $230,000,000
  12. War of the Planet of the Apes $217,000,000
  13. Logan $205,000,000
  14. Transformers: The Last Knight $190,000,000
  15. Dunkirk $185,000,000
  16. Kong Skull Island $160,000,000
  17. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 $155,000,000
  18. Alien: Covenant $147,000,000 
  19. Cars 3 $145,000,000
  20. Baywatch $137,000,000

 

 

Edited by Kalo
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I think the thing going for GOTG is I firmly believe apart from Deadpool, GOTG rally broke outside the marvel fanbase compared to recent films.

 

It could pull off a dmc style increase but after civil war overestimation best to remain conservative.

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Things I'm sure of:

 

Episode VIII = #1 

BatB and GOTG Vol 2 in Top 2-3 (not sure about the order but expect BatB to win WW and Foreign over GOTG Vol 2 at least)

 

JL will get terrible reviews. Even if Snyder directed a masterpiece, critics are now writing pans as he announces new movies (and they are not wrong, sadly)

 

Fate of the Furious will drop big from F7 on all fronts (dom, foreign, WW)

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1- Star Wars Episode VIII: 690m$ (185m$)

2- Beauty and the Beast: 430m$ (140m$)

3- Guardian of the Galaxy, Vol 2 : 410m$ (167m$)

4- Justice League : 325m$ (160m$)

5- The Fate of the Furious : 280m$ (130m$)

6- Lego BATMAN : 275m$ (90m$)

7- Spiderman Homecoming : 270m$ (105m$)

8- Despicable Me 3: 265m$ (100m$)

9- War of the Planet of the Apes: 240m$ (90m$)

10- Logan : 235m$ (95m$)

 

Thor:RAGNAROK  : 230m$ (92m$)

Wonder Woman : 220m$ (85m$)

Kingman 2 : 190m$ (67m$)

POTC5 : 180m$ (77m$)

Transformers V : 165m$ (80m$)

Coco : 165m$ (45m$)

Cars 3: 160m$ (62m$)

Dunkirk : 145m$ (38m$)

Life: 140m$ (50m$)

Blade Runner 2049: 140m$ (45m$)

Ninjago: 135m$ (40m$)

Pitch Perfect3: 130m$ (32m$)

50SD: 125m$ (68m$)

Baywatch : 120m$ (36m$)

Kong Skull Island : 115m$ (40m$)

The Mummy : 115m$ (42m$)

Alien Covenant : 110m$ (45m$)

The Dark Tower : 95m$ (33m$)

Jumanji: 90m$ (22m$)

It: 85m$ (35m$)

King Arthur : 80m$ (30m$)

Ghost in the Shell: 70m$ (30m$)

Valerian : 55m$ (25m$)

Power Rangers : 35m$ (15m$)

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1. Star Wars Episode 8: $765M

2. Guardians of the Galaxy: $420M

3. Beauty and the Beast: $400M

4. Despicable Me 3: $355M

5. Justice League: $330M

6. Spider-Man: Homecoming: $320M

7. Wonder Woman: $305M

8. Fate of the Furious: $290M

9. Lego Batman: $260M

10. Thor 3: $260M

11. Kong: $250M

12. Coco: $245M

13. Dunkirk: $245M

14. Apes: $230M

15. Transformers: $200M

16. Logan: $190M

17. Pirates 5: $190M

18. Ninjago: $180M

19. Cars 3: $180M

20. Dark Tower: $175M

21. The Mummy: $170M

22. Rock That Body: $160M

23. Jumanji: $150M

23. Murder on the Orient Express: $145M

24. Baywatch: $140M

25. Bad Moms Christmas: $140M

25. Kingsman: $135M

26. Fifty Shades: $135M

27. Alien: Covenant: $130M

28. The House: $125M

29. Blade Runner 2049: $120M

30. Pitch Perfect 3: $120M

31. Ferdinand: $115M

32. The Star: $110M

33. Fist Fight: $105M

34. Captain Underpants: $105M

35. Red Sparrow: $105M

36. Greatest Showman on Earth: $100M

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I wont predict the complete top 10 of next year, but at least the cbm, in this case worldwide:

 

Justice League: 900-1.1

Guardians: 850-950

Spiderman: 800-900

Wonder Woman: 750-800

Thor 3: 700-790

Logan: 550-600

 

the hardest battle, imo, will be between Spiderman and Guardians. After G1 success, one would guess the sequel will do more than Spiderman, but you never knows.

Potential surprise: Logan. I guess it could surprise us all and do more than 600m, but as of now, I'll go the safe route. At the same time, who knows, it could even do less than 500, lol. But with its quality and R-rated, it could be a fan pleaser, I guess

Edited by XMenSaga
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