MEH-MORIAL DAY WEEKEND BOX OFFICE | Abandon all hope, the box office is dead. 3 day weekend #s X-Men 65M, Alice 28.1M, Angry Birds 18.7M, Civil War 15.1M, Neighbors 9.1M. Bad openings, horrible holdovers.

[KGator]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

X-Men didn't look like it was bringing anything new to the series, and Alice was an unnecessary sequel at least three years too late where all of its pluses at the time (3D, Depp) are now negatives. Pretty easy to pinpoint what went wrong.

 

I believe this is accurate for this weekend's big releases.  However I think the larger issue at play is the combination of 1) an over saturation of the movie marketplace in general 2) exponential increase in BIG budget movies (tentpole productions) 3) a shrinking number of moviegoers (somewhat offset by rising prices and expensive new technologies 4) a cultural shift that increases the value of home or small screen viewing (phones, tablets, TVs) and reduces the value of the large screen experience.

 

This trend isn't going to change. In a decade we could see the closure of half the existing theaters in the US (maybe longer, maybe shorter).  More lower budget movies will probably go both widescreen and small screen release at the same time leaving the theaters showing mainly higher budget productions that have a better visual and sound experience.  And of course these films will fight over an ever shrinking audience.

 

I am going to see Apocalypse today but nothing about this movie screamed "new" or "original" to me. Just more of the same.  Jungle Book and Deadpool were the only movies that hooked me after release based on seeing the public reaction combined with a feeling that these movies were fresh spins in the marketplace (and both didn't disappoint).  Jungle Book with its great visuals and Deadpool with its hilarious and playful take on the genre.  But in general we could just be seeing more visible symptoms of the gradual decline of modern cinema.  Over long periods it will be easier to see overall trends that might look completely random and conflicting over a shorter period of analysis.

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, KGator said:

 

I believe this is accurate for this weekend's big releases.  However I think the larger issue at play is the combination of 1) an over saturation of the movie marketplace in general

Lol, no. People just aren't buying tickets to what's out now. They're obviously waiting for the few very special movies like Cap 3, Deadpool, Jungle Book, Zootopia, BvS etc...

 

Unless you're talking about the oversupply of theaters themselves, which is totally real.

Edited May 30, 2016 by cannastop

[RamblinRed]

1 hour ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

Well if comic book fatigue is setting in like you claim, then SUICIDE SQUAD is pretty much fucked...

You didn't read my post carefully.

 

I said it might be setting in, not that it had.

I also was specific in saying that doesn't mean they won't make money - just that it will be a little tougher to get the higher grosses.

[angeldelmito]

4 hours ago, department store basement said:

So at my Apocalypse showing when the Marvel logo came up the person in front of me said "That's Marvel? I thought it was DC."

 

More proof that the GP can't tell superhero movies apart.

they probably saw the rotten on RT and automatically assumed 

[JohnnyGossamer]

17 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

You didn't read my post carefully.

 

I said it might be setting in, not that it had.

I also was specific in saying that doesn't mean they won't make money - just that it will be a little tougher to get the higher grosses.

I agree with this very much. I'm curious if a CBM will gross $500M+ DOM in the next decade. Hell, I'm actually a little curious of $450M+ in that span. Though, I do believe a handful will still gross $400M+ DOM. The same will impact Star Wars IX. I expect that to gross less than both VII and VIII as it'll be the fifth Star Wars movie in five years. Of course, I still expect a mammoth gross for it. Just not expecting anything over $700M+ DOM.

 

The further along the MCEU and DCEU get along, the more defined the audience becomes for each. Again, they'll make bank. $1B+ is likely for just about all of them, especially Marvel Studios' Avengers followups and Guardians Vol. 2.

Edited May 30, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[superweirdo87]

16 minutes ago, a2knet said:

X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST Fox 3,996

$35,511,974 -- / $8,887 $35,511,974 / 1

$29,283,650 -17.5% / $7,328 $64,795,624 / 2

$26,028,036 -11.1% / $6,514

X-MEN: APOCALYPSE              Fox 4,150

$26,400,000 -- / $6,361 $26,400,000 / 1

$20,250,000 -23.3% / $4,880 $46,650,000 / 2

$18,350,000 -9.4% / $4,422 $65,000,000 / 3

 

I don't see how APOCALYPSE can do 80m 4-day.

 

It needs an 18% Monday drop (for 15m) to touch 80m. DOFP fell 24% on Monday and X3 fell 22%.

It can't hold that much better than DOFP & X3 on Monday.

 

A 25% drop will give it 13.75m Monday and 78.75m 4-day.

This is assuming it's 3-day remains at 65m and does not go down with actuals.

79m 4-day and 1.9x off the 4-day gives 150.1m dom (DOFP dom was 2.1x * 4-day)

 

Also, game 7 is on Monday and that hits XM:A's audience. I really don't see the movie doing 80. That is bound to be a big hit to Fox

[La Binoche]

Hopefully the rest of the TMNT reviews aren't as bad as this or next weekend could get ugly https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/may/30/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-review-tmnt

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:

 

Also, game 7 is on Monday and that hits XM:A's audience. I really don't see the movie doing 80. That is bound to be a big hit to Fox

Game 7 of the NBA WCF as well as Game 1 of the NHL SCF. But, both come in the evening and don't start until 8PM and 9PM. With that, I don't see a huge impact aside from maybe the Cali ticket sales given the Warriors and Sharks are playing.

Edited May 30, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

Hopefully the rest of the TMNT reviews aren't as bad as this or next weekend could get ugly https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/may/30/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-review-tmnt

While I'm pretty intrigued by TMNT 2 simply because of how bonkers it looks, it was bound to be ugly regardless. It won't drop remotely near Alice but it will drop. The drop will be similar to DoFP to Apocalypse.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Hopefully the rest of the TMNT reviews aren't as bad as this or next weekend could get ugly https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/may/30/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-review-tmnt

Doesn't seem to have hurt the first one.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Doesn't seem to have hurt the first one.

Oh, I agree. But, what I think impacts this sequel is that it'll lack the curious viewer that came out to see the first in 2014. Folks now know what they're getting into and, with that, fewer will come out. My guess is that retains 2/3 or 3/4 of the DOM audiences that helped it to $190M+ DOM.

[baumer]

1 hour ago, Cochofles said:

 

People always make these pronouncements but never explain what they mean.

Someone please define what "decent movie with GA appeal mean"? Anyone has the formula down?

And even if there were a formula...what guarantees that a  "decent movie with GA appeal mean" will have good box office?

 

Fuckin A!!!!

 

Post of the century

[baumer]

37 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Lol, no. People just aren't buying tickets to what's out now. They're obviously waiting for the few very special movies like Cap 3, Deadpool, Jungle Book, Zootopia, BvS etc...

 

Unless you're talking about the oversupply of theaters themselves, which is totally real.

 

Actually kgator is right. I don't have time to explain it right now what is essentially there are something like five three hundred million dollar grossing movies so far this year and only one of the film has grossed a hundred million. Go back last year and the year before and then see that by now it was probably at least 5 or 6 100mill grossing movies. It's basically boom-or-bust right now with movies the superhero movies are making big bucks and everything else is just struggling to get by.

[Krissykins]

Fox saying $80m... Yeah right.

[DAJK]

25 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Hopefully the rest of the TMNT reviews aren't as bad as this or next weekend could get ugly https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/may/30/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-review-tmnt

Does nobody understand that this is Michael Bay's movie? Yeesh.

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Actually kgator is right. I don't have time to explain it right now what is essentially there are something like five three hundred million dollar grossing movies so far this year and only one of the film has grossed a hundred million. Go back last year and the year before and then see that by now it was probably at least 5 or 6 100mill grossing movies. It's basically boom-or-bust right now with movies the superhero movies are making big bucks and everything else is just struggling to get by.

That also suggests that audiences are waiting for special movies, just like I said.

[angeldelmito]

oh snap y'all its memorial day!!!! happy memorial day 

Edited May 30, 2016 by angeldelmito

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, angeldelmito said:

oh snap y'all its memorial day!!!! happy memorial day  

Well, it's actually supposed to be a somber occasion.

[Rman823]

I think Popstar could end up as the highest rated wide release on RT next week. Turtles will probably end up around the first movie, Me Before You will probably be in the 40's-50's, and I could see Popstar being fresh. If Walk Hard can get in the 70's then I think it has a chance. 

Edited May 30, 2016 by Rman823

[Nova]

2 hours ago, goldenstate5 said:

Lol Alice 2. I wonder if it'll even get close to Tomorrowland's DOM total?

 

Bet Disney is furious that the Depp story didn't break until after the weekend.

Depp's story is not the reason why Alice 2 bombed. Alice 2 bombed because it's a sequel literally no one asked for and Disney thought it could capitalize off of the first one. Also, Johnny Depp isn't the box office draw he once was and in fact one would argue that he's a box office poison. Lastly if you read the reactions of people on the Depp incident, there are a lot of people who think Amber Heard is blackmailing him and he is innocent. I'm not going to get into specifics in all of this but let's be real: Alice 2 bombing didn't have to do with these supposed allegations but rather the first two reasons I've stated above. Like Alice 2 was bombing regardless.