Tuesday: Apoc $6.5M, Alice 2 $2.8M, Angry Birds $1.8M, Cap3 $1.5M, Neighbors 2 $1.3M

[department store basement]

56 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A BRUTAL TC drop will be coming.

 

Fant4stic only lost 1400 theaters (out of 4004), this probably won't lose as many.

Edited June 1, 2016 by department store basement

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, trifle said:

 

 

OK, I can see that.  But since TMNT and Alice have such a big theater commitment, wouldn't those be pulled first for Dory?  I agree Dory will be big.  I also agree about the 4th of July, I just don't know how much XA can make between now and then.

Oh Alice is going to have some huge TC drops, make no mistake. As much as TMNT is probably underperforming this weekend it'll still be newer and ahead of Apocalypse which could be the deciding factor for some theaters (more concession sales vs more money from the ticket).

[RichWS]

5 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

True, but if you're not going to either correct me or agree with me, it's best not to say anything at all. Poking fun at me contributes even less than my bad predictions do.

 

 

Nobody wants to, but it's become a little ridiculous. That'll be my last word about it. You keep doing you. 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

Nobody wants to, but it's become a little ridiculous. That'll be my last word about it. You keep doing you. 

 

[department store basement]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Angry Birds: The movie had a 51% drop this weekend, it won't rebound that much. Also, a 4.35x will not happen.

 

johnboy is using Shrek's run as Angry Birds's regressor. That's why its multiplier is listed as being so big.

 

He's also using House of Wax for Money Monster, that's why he predicts its drops to be so high.

Edited June 1, 2016 by department store basement

[johnboy3434]

53 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

johnboy is using Shrek's run as Angry Birds's regressor. That's why its multiplier is listed as being so big.

 

He's also using House of Wax for Money Monster, that's why he predicts its drops to be so high.

 

Yeah, I've been trying to avoid it, but there's no denying it anymore: I need to find some way to account for non-numeric factors. Specifically, I'm talking star power, level of competition, social media buzz, and genre. Problem is, I have no fucking clue how to quantify all that in a way that's compatible with a time series regression model (never mind that there has yet to be an objective definition of what a genre is and what constitutes one particular genre over another).

 

Edited June 2, 2016 by johnboy3434

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Yeah, I've been trying to avoid it, but there's no denying it anymore: I need to find some way to account for non-numeric factors. Specifically, I'm talking star power, level of competition, social media buzz, and genre. Problem is, I have no fucking clue how to quantify all that in a way that's compatible with a time series regression model (never mind that there has yet to be an objective definition of what a genre is and what constitutes one particular genre over another).

 

 

At the very least, look to similar movies within the same genre, released roughly around the same time. For example, DOFP is probably a most accurate reflection of how X:A will do, assuming you put in an adjuster for lowered expectations (or added the adjuster after the weekend numbers came in). For MONEY MONSTER, some mid-budget drama (potentially with Clooney) is a better match than a horror movie. Early May release would be fine, but a spring release probably isn't that bad -- it's not like adults have free time in the summer, so the variation between seasons probably isn't as dramatic as teen-oriented stuff (major holidays aside). It's not a particularly great match, but something like HAIL, CAESAR! is still probably a closer comp than what you picked.

 

That's where you have to either use your own intuition, or get a sense from others here on the forums, or something.

[mahnamahna]

There're some weird predicts by BO.com this week.

 

Only $27 million for TMNT 2?? 

 

Jungle Book not even in the top 10?? It did $7 million this last weekend... how is it going to drop below $2.5 million? 

 

Everything else seems about right, but those two are just so out of left field 

Edited June 2, 2016 by mahnamahna

[Murgatroyd]

4 hours ago, Treecraft said:

I love animation, and I think we're going through almost a golden age of animation right now. There is so much variety, and since high-quality animation has become cheaper and cheaper, more and more studios can play around with new ideas in animated movies. Inside Out, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, and Strange Magic were all in my top 10 movies last year, and they couldn't be more different. I loved Minions, The Good Dinosaur, Spongebob, and Shaun the Sheep too. Between all those, there are watercolours, 2D, 3D, stop-motion; franchises, original films, dramas, comedies, adventures and musicals. There's so much going on, more so than any other genre of major studio movies.

 

There's no "almost" about it. We are living in a golden age of animation. I don't think there have ever been so many studios putting out so many high-quality films.

 

4 hours ago, grim22 said:

The issue is that every single movie cannot be the "Must see event of the summer", which leads to the underperformance of so many movies.

 

Every movie will be a must-see event. Every movie will be special.

And when every movie's special, no movie will be.

[moviesRus]

2 hours ago, theStun said:

 

#piracy #13thfilm #whateverotherreason

 

And before the butthurt starts flowing I'll just say it

"Then what does that make BvS couldn't even make 900M wah wah wah"

 

BvS actually was an event movie though. First time Batman and Superman ever on screen together plus first time Wonder Woman is put to film. 

 

Civil War, before all the reviews came in and made everyone go crazy, was just another in a long line of Marvel heroes who have been in movies together before. The only new thing was Spiderman who's gotten 5 movies in the last 12 years. 

[Johnny Tran]

27 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

 

BvS actually was an event movie though. First time Batman and Superman ever on screen together plus first time Wonder Woman is put to film. 

 

The movie was an event yes but it had a ton of question marks coming in.  Man of Steel had mixed reviews. Snyder is either a like him or strongly dislike him director. Affleck had built up some positivity through the directing chair but not so much with acting. There were a lot of people on the "Did you forget DAREDEVIL?!"  train.  Some folks didn't even like The Dark Knight Returns comic and hated the idea of turning it into a film.

 

Plus, first time we've seen Batman since the God, the creator, Nolan's interpretation of the character.

 

So much whining and some of it as we saw was for good reason.

 

So for this movie to do $872M I think now is the official number..   is really damn good for WB.   They dodged a bullet. SS better be good though.

 

Also  LOL @ the only new thing being Spider-Man in the MCU.  Spider-Man is a huge deal. Black Panther garnered some interest and Downey Jr. as Iron Man will always bring people out.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Johnny Tran

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

The movie was an event yes but it had a ton of question marks coming in.  Man of Steel had mixed reviews. Snyder is either a like him or strongly dislike him director. Affleck had built up some positivity through the directing chair but not so much with acting. There were a lot of people on the "Did you forget DAREDEVIL?!"  train.  Some folks didn't even like The Dark Knight Returns comic and hated the idea of turning it into a film.

 

Plus, first time we've seen Batman since the God, the creator, Nolan's interpretation of the character.

 

So much whining and some of it as we saw was for good reason.

 

So for this movie to do $872M I think now is the official number..   is really damn good for WB.   They dodged a bullet. SS better be good though.

Yes, and they still haven't done that.

[department store basement]

8 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

There were a lot of people on the "Did you forget DAREDEVIL?!"  train.

 

I never heard anyone say that non-jokingly about Affleck.

[Johnny Tran]

6 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

I never heard anyone say that non-jokingly about Affleck.

 

CBG19 was one. There's a bunch of others.

[moviesRus]

29 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

The movie was an event yes but it had a ton of question marks coming in.  Man of Steel had mixed reviews. Snyder is either a like him or strongly dislike him director. Affleck had built up some positivity through the directing chair but not so much with acting. There were a lot of people on the "Did you forget DAREDEVIL?!"  train.  Some folks didn't even like The Dark Knight Returns comic and hated the idea of turning it into a film.

 

Plus, first time we've seen Batman since the God, the creator, Nolan's interpretation of the character.

 

So much whining and some of it as we saw was for good reason.

 

So for this movie to do $872M I think now is the official number..   is really damn good for WB.   They dodged a bullet. SS better be good though.

 

Also  LOL @ the only new thing being Spider-Man in the MCU.  Spider-Man is a huge deal. Black Panther garnered some interest and Downey Jr. as Iron Man will always bring people out.

 

It's Batman.. and Superman... and Wonder Woman. All in a film together for the first time ever. It's not my fault WB chose such terrible creative people to make this movie. I mean, regardless of how shitty the film turned out, the fact is pre-BvS release, a lot of people thought BvS would easily make $1 billion and would gross more than Civil War (despite admitting CW would get better reviews). 

 

No one knows who the fuck Black Panther is. I would say, pre-CW the GA awareness for Black Panther was 1/100 of Wonder Woman. They would probably think you were talking about Malcolm X, not a superhero.

 

$872m for BvS is just not good.. at all. More importantly, it left a bad taste and fucks over their sequels. Especially cause these first time novelty event films tend to the be the peak box office for franchises. 

Edited June 2, 2016 by moviesRus

[Johnny Tran]

35 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

 

It's Batman.. and Superman... and Wonder Woman. All in a film together for the first time ever. It's not my fault WB chose such terrible creative people to make this movie. I mean, regardless of how shitty the film turned out, the fact is pre-BvS release, a lot of people thought BvS would easily make $1 billion and would gross more than Civil War (despite admitting CW would get better reviews).

 

Even if people thought it'd make a billion, they couldn't have thought it would make more than that.  A billion or maybe 1.1 was my ceiling.  it fell $128M short.  Not even the biggest underperformance of the year. Alice, for example, is going to be a much bigger issue.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Johnny Tran

[Porthos]

Late to the party, but I wanted to add a couple of data points to "Discount Tuesday"

The nicest non-IMAX theatre in the greater Sacramento area (the Palladio in Folsom) has Discount Tuesdays. It's part of the Cinema West chain.

 

All of the Century Theaters in town (part of the Cinemark chain) have Discount Tuesdays (one dollar more than the Palladio).

 

As I check, it looks like the UA/Regal theaters in town also offer Discount Tuesdays, if at the highest price.

 

Sacramento is probably a "mid market", but it's a Top 20 DMA.

 

So it absolutely is a thing, if not universal.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Porthos

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Late to the party, but I wanted to add a couple of data points to "Discount Tuesday"

The nicest non-IMAX theatre in the greater Sacramento area (the Palladio in Folsom) has Discount Tuesdays. It's part of the Cinema West chain.

 

All of the Century Theaters in town (part of the Cinemark chain) have Discount Tuesdays (one dollar more than the Palladio).

 

As I check, it looks like the UA/Regal theaters in town also offer Discount Tuesdys, if at the highest price.

 

Sacramento is probably a "mid market", but it's a Top 20 DMA.

 

So it absoultely is a thing, if not universal.

I linked to Regal's page. Only 1/3rd of Regal locations even have these deals.

[filmlover]

It's June and we're still talking about Batman v Superman. Never disappoint, BOT.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

It's June and we're still talking about Batman v Superman. Never disappoint, BOT.

Yeah, how dare we talk about one of the top 5 movies of the year.